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Forums - Sales Discussion - usa: "PS4 has already sold more units this week > the last several months combined"

colafitte on 01 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
Mar1217 said:
After skeeming through Benji's tweets, I guess it's be reasonable to think the PS4 will reach about 900K to 1.1M in sales this year. Not including Cyber Monday cuz it's not counted by the NPD.

Great month considering it's recent sharp decline in the last few months.

Well that would be a sharp decline in line with most months this year, Jan-Aug were down ~30% while Sept/Oct were down ~50% but those are outliers since last year had Spider Man & Red Dead 2 and this year had nothing come close to those titles.

last year it did 1.48m so 900k-1.1m would put it at a 25-40% YoY drop. I'll go with 1 million for Nov and 600k for Dec giving it a ~30% drop for the holidays. Total year sales would then be ~5.3m for 2018 and ~3.6m for 2019 giving it a ~33% drop.

Last year had a week more in November (Cybermonday week). If PS4 does 1'0-1'1 with a week less is a very good result indeed.

This will mean that December will probably be flat or even better than last year.



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zorg1000 on 01 December 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Well that would be a sharp decline in line with most months this year, Jan-Aug were down ~30% while Sept/Oct were down ~50% but those are outliers since last year had Spider Man & Red Dead 2 and this year had nothing come close to those titles.

last year it did 1.48m so 900k-1.1m would put it at a 25-40% YoY drop. I'll go with 1 million for Nov and 600k for Dec giving it a ~30% drop for the holidays. Total year sales would then be ~5.3m for 2018 and ~3.6m for 2019 giving it a ~33% drop.

Last year had a week more in November (Cybermonday week). If PS4 does 1'0-1'1 with a week less is a very good result indeed.

This will mean that December will probably be flat or even better than last year.

No it didnt, November is always 4 weeks and December is always 5 weeks.

The difference is that BF/CM were a week earlier last year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 01 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
colafitte said:

Last year had a week more in November (Cybermonday week). If PS4 does 1'0-1'1 with a week less is a very good result indeed.

This will mean that December will probably be flat or even better than last year.

November and December have always the same amount of weeks - four and five, respectively. Cyber Monday falls into the December period this year, but I don't think that will make much of a difference for the PS4 when its Black Friday stock is usually sold out by Monday in most years. The PS4 should be expected to be down year over year in both November and December, the question is just by how much.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Last year had a week more in November (Cybermonday week). If PS4 does 1'0-1'1 with a week less is a very good result indeed.

This will mean that December will probably be flat or even better than last year.

No it didnt, November is always 4 weeks and December is always 5 weeks.

The difference is that BF/CM were a week earlier last year.

Ok, i was wrong with the number of weeks for each month so then i made my assumption thinking Nov sales will lack a week. Total ignorance of my part this time. 

If last year Nov+Dec was around 1'5M+0'8M for a total of 2'3M, then i expect something like 1'1M+0'7M (because despite CM Week not being that high for PS4 is still an important week) this year for a total of 1'8M. That would be closer to 20-25% drop instead of 33-35%. I really think the holiday season will not share the same drop % as the rest of the year but i must admit that this year i'm much less confident in any prediction i make than the ones i made last year because i have much less information now, so i won't bet anything on this .....

Edit: Oh, and i want to add, that, to the people who says Switch sales don't interfere on PS4+XBO and viceversa because they don't compete to each other, that i don't agree at all, and seeing how PS4+XBO have died this year while Switch sales have flourished i don't think it's a coincidence. PS4+XBO combo sales were far ahead of PS3+X360 in the same timeframe just until Switch came and then PS4 and XBO started to drop way faster than anticipated and they are going to end behind what X360+PS3 did, at least in USA.

I really believe now that PS5+XB2 will affect Switch sales in 2020 and definitively in 2021. Is just that most people just can't care about more than 1 console at the same time.

Last edited by colafitte - on 01 December 2019

zorg1000 on 01 December 2019
colafitte said:
RolStoppable said:

November and December have always the same amount of weeks - four and five, respectively. Cyber Monday falls into the December period this year, but I don't think that will make much of a difference for the PS4 when its Black Friday stock is usually sold out by Monday in most years. The PS4 should be expected to be down year over year in both November and December, the question is just by how much.

zorg1000 said:

No it didnt, November is always 4 weeks and December is always 5 weeks.

The difference is that BF/CM were a week earlier last year.

Ok, i was wrong with the number of weeks for each month so then i made my assumption thinking Nov sales will lack a week. Total ignorance of my part this time. 

If last year Nov+Dec was around 1'5M+0'8M for a total of 2'3M, then i expect something like 1'1M+0'7M (because despite CM Week not being that high for PS4 is still an important week) this year for a total of 1'8M. That would be closer to 20-25% drop instead of 33-35%. I really think the holiday season will not share the same drop % as the rest of the year but i must admit that this year i'm much less confident in any prediction i make than the ones i made last year because i have much less information now, so i won't bet anything on this .....

Edit: Oh, and i want to add, that, to the people who says Switch sales don't interfere on PS4+XBO and viceversa because they don't compete to each other, that i don't agree at all, and seeing how PS4+XBO have died this year while Switch sales have flourished i don't think it's a coincidence. PS4+XBO combo sales were far ahead of PS3+X360 in the same timeframe just until Switch came and then PS4 and XBO started to drop way faster than anticipated and they are going to end behind what X360+PS3 did, at least in USA.

I really believe now that PS5+XB2 will affect Switch sales in 2020 and definitively in 2021. Is just that most people just can't care about more than 1 console at the same time.

No problem, easy mistake to make and your 1.8 million prediction for Nov+Dec is definitely feasible.

PS4/XBO have died down because they are nearing the end of their cycles and reaching a saturation point, it has little to do with Switch.

Your PS3/360 vs PS4/XBO reasoning is flawed because they share different sales curves. PS3/360 had incredibly late peaks in large part from PS3 high initial price and 360 getting a casual hit in Kinect.

Looking at total sales PS3+360 sold 173 million and by the end of this year PS4+XBO will be over 150 million which means they are on track to sell similar numbers as the previous generation.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 01 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Ok, i was wrong with the number of weeks for each month so then i made my assumption thinking Nov sales will lack a week. Total ignorance of my part this time. 

If last year Nov+Dec was around 1'5M+0'8M for a total of 2'3M, then i expect something like 1'1M+0'7M (because despite CM Week not being that high for PS4 is still an important week) this year for a total of 1'8M. That would be closer to 20-25% drop instead of 33-35%. I really think the holiday season will not share the same drop % as the rest of the year but i must admit that this year i'm much less confident in any prediction i make than the ones i made last year because i have much less information now, so i won't bet anything on this .....

Edit: Oh, and i want to add, that, to the people who says Switch sales don't interfere on PS4+XBO and viceversa because they don't compete to each other, that i don't agree at all, and seeing how PS4+XBO have died this year while Switch sales have flourished i don't think it's a coincidence. PS4+XBO combo sales were far ahead of PS3+X360 in the same timeframe just until Switch came and then PS4 and XBO started to drop way faster than anticipated and they are going to end behind what X360+PS3 did, at least in USA.

I really believe now that PS5+XB2 will affect Switch sales in 2020 and definitively in 2021. Is just that most people just can't care about more than 1 console at the same time.

No problem, easy mistake to make and your 1.8 million prediction for Nov+Dec is definitely feasible.

PS4/XBO have died down because they are nearing the end of their cycles and reaching a saturation point, it has little to do with Switch.

Your PS3/360 vs PS4/XBO reasoning is flawed because they share different sales curves. PS3/360 had incredibly late peaks in large part from PS3 high initial price and 360 getting a casual hit in Kinect.

Looking at total sales PS3+360 sold 173 million and by the end of this year PS4+XBO will be over 150 million which means they are on track to sell similar numbers as the previous generation.

I was talking about USA in this case because this thread is about US sales, a western territory where Switch has affected much more the PS4+XBO combo than in the rest of the western countries. 

PS3+X360 must've sold around 70M combined in USA last gen. PS4+XBO are right now around 55M. I don't really think they're going to match that number, when even until 2 years ago PS4+XBO combo were far ahead over X360+PS3 combo in the same timeframe. The fact that this decline has been so sudden is no coincidence, in my opinion. PS4 is not going to even surpass Wii in USA at this rate when PS4 already sold more in any other western country compared to  what Wii did. I really believe that if Switch wouldn't been this succesful PS4 and XBO would have sold more during 2018 and 2019. I really believe that Switch success is affecting PS4 sales a lot in USA and Japan, casually the 2 best markets for Switch.

And the fact that you bring Kinect as to why X360 lasted that long..., well, that's what happened then to competion too. Kinect affected negatively the sales of the Wii and PS3 those last years in USA too(despite PS3 leading very clearly in the rest of the world during 2011-2013).



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zorg1000 on 01 December 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

No problem, easy mistake to make and your 1.8 million prediction for Nov+Dec is definitely feasible.

PS4/XBO have died down because they are nearing the end of their cycles and reaching a saturation point, it has little to do with Switch.

Your PS3/360 vs PS4/XBO reasoning is flawed because they share different sales curves. PS3/360 had incredibly late peaks in large part from PS3 high initial price and 360 getting a casual hit in Kinect.

Looking at total sales PS3+360 sold 173 million and by the end of this year PS4+XBO will be over 150 million which means they are on track to sell similar numbers as the previous generation.

I was talking about USA in this case because this thread is about US sales, a western territory where Switch has affected much more the PS4+XBO combo than in the rest of the western countries. 

PS3+X360 must've sold around 70M combined in USA last gen. PS4+XBO are right now around 55M. I don't really think they're going to match that number, when even until 2 years ago PS4+XBO combo were far ahead over X360+PS3 combo in the same timeframe. The fact that this decline has been so sudden is no coincidence, in my opinion. PS4 is not going to even surpass Wii in USA at this rate when PS4 already sold more in any other western country compared to  what Wii did. I really believe that if Switch wouldn't been this succesful PS4 and XBO would have sold more during 2018 and 2019. I really believe that Switch success is affecting PS4 sales a lot in USA and Japan, casually the 2 best markets for Switch.

And the fact that you bring Kinect as to why X360 lasted that long..., well, that's what happened then to competion too. Kinect affected negatively the sales of the Wii and PS3 those last years in USA too(despite PS3 leading very clearly in the rest of the world during 2011-2013).

The whole theory just doesnt make sense, in the US PS4 & XBO both peaked in 2015, 2 years before Switch released.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 01 December 2019

I'm not talking about having a peak year in year 3 or 4 in USA (which should have been normal considering what happened with PS1, PS2 and PS3). I'm saying that PS4 and XBO were ahead compared to last gen just before Switch launched and now they're going to end behind, when that is not going to happen in any other place not called Japan, another country/region where Switch has performed much better than PS4 in the last year or two.

Europe:

X360+PS3: around 61M
PS4+XBO: Already at 55M, they probably will end around 65-70M margin

Others:

X360+PS3: 21'5M
PS4+XBO: Already at 23M, they probably will end around 30M

*according to VGC data of course.

I don't know guys..., but Japan and US sales both have seen PS4 going down quickly and both have seen Switch going up quickly. If you consider that a coincidence..., well, we agree to disagree then.



colafitte on 01 December 2019

Edited: Because i'm a moron and today is not my day and i'm making all the mistakes.....

Software sales in UK in BF week. PS4 around 500k, XBO around 415k, Switch around 360k. PS4 down 37%, XBO down 27% and Switch up 44% compared to BF 2018.

Source:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-12-01-sea-of-thieves-is-no-4-as-black-friday-transforms-uk-charts

Maybe we can have an idea about how hardware is going to be up and down with this data.

Last edited by colafitte - on 01 December 2019

peachbuggy on 01 December 2019
colafitte said:

By the way, just announced that in the last week, BF week in UK PS4 sold very close to 500k units, XBO around 415k and Switch around 360k. Super impressive sales numbers for a market like UK..., that's a lot of consoles sold.

This data maybe could give us a hint about US performance...

Source:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-12-01-sea-of-thieves-is-no-4-as-black-friday-transforms-uk-charts

PS4 down 37%, XBO down 27% and Switch up 44% compared to BF 2018.

The data you are referring to is SW not HW.



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colafitte on 01 December 2019
peachbuggy said:
colafitte said:

By the way, just announced that in the last week, BF week in UK PS4 sold very close to 500k units, XBO around 415k and Switch around 360k. Super impressive sales numbers for a market like UK..., that's a lot of consoles sold.

This data maybe could give us a hint about US performance...

Source:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-12-01-sea-of-thieves-is-no-4-as-black-friday-transforms-uk-charts

PS4 down 37%, XBO down 27% and Switch up 44% compared to BF 2018.

The data you are referring to is SW not HW.

Yes, i was about to edit that because it made no sense...., i will change it. I was watching the end of the Lakers v Mavs game and i was not paying enough attention at what i was reading...., my apologies.....

Last edited by colafitte - on 01 December 2019