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colafitte on 01 December 2019
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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Ok, i was wrong with the number of weeks for each month so then i made my assumption thinking Nov sales will lack a week. Total ignorance of my part this time. 

If last year Nov+Dec was around 1'5M+0'8M for a total of 2'3M, then i expect something like 1'1M+0'7M (because despite CM Week not being that high for PS4 is still an important week) this year for a total of 1'8M. That would be closer to 20-25% drop instead of 33-35%. I really think the holiday season will not share the same drop % as the rest of the year but i must admit that this year i'm much less confident in any prediction i make than the ones i made last year because i have much less information now, so i won't bet anything on this .....

Edit: Oh, and i want to add, that, to the people who says Switch sales don't interfere on PS4+XBO and viceversa because they don't compete to each other, that i don't agree at all, and seeing how PS4+XBO have died this year while Switch sales have flourished i don't think it's a coincidence. PS4+XBO combo sales were far ahead of PS3+X360 in the same timeframe just until Switch came and then PS4 and XBO started to drop way faster than anticipated and they are going to end behind what X360+PS3 did, at least in USA.

I really believe now that PS5+XB2 will affect Switch sales in 2020 and definitively in 2021. Is just that most people just can't care about more than 1 console at the same time.

No problem, easy mistake to make and your 1.8 million prediction for Nov+Dec is definitely feasible.

PS4/XBO have died down because they are nearing the end of their cycles and reaching a saturation point, it has little to do with Switch.

Your PS3/360 vs PS4/XBO reasoning is flawed because they share different sales curves. PS3/360 had incredibly late peaks in large part from PS3 high initial price and 360 getting a casual hit in Kinect.

Looking at total sales PS3+360 sold 173 million and by the end of this year PS4+XBO will be over 150 million which means they are on track to sell similar numbers as the previous generation.

I was talking about USA in this case because this thread is about US sales, a western territory where Switch has affected much more the PS4+XBO combo than in the rest of the western countries. 

PS3+X360 must've sold around 70M combined in USA last gen. PS4+XBO are right now around 55M. I don't really think they're going to match that number, when even until 2 years ago PS4+XBO combo were far ahead over X360+PS3 combo in the same timeframe. The fact that this decline has been so sudden is no coincidence, in my opinion. PS4 is not going to even surpass Wii in USA at this rate when PS4 already sold more in any other western country compared to  what Wii did. I really believe that if Switch wouldn't been this succesful PS4 and XBO would have sold more during 2018 and 2019. I really believe that Switch success is affecting PS4 sales a lot in USA and Japan, casually the 2 best markets for Switch.

And the fact that you bring Kinect as to why X360 lasted that long..., well, that's what happened then to competion too. Kinect affected negatively the sales of the Wii and PS3 those last years in USA too(despite PS3 leading very clearly in the rest of the world during 2011-2013).