Amnesia said:
Don't forget to post this agian next year with full 2019 sales. There is one line which deserves a little improvement because of its confusion :
- Ring Fit Adventure has a great chance to sell over 1 million in 2019 and make the top 3
You mean 1 million worldwide and top 3 in Japan ? or both japan or both worldwide ?
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1 million in Japan, prob well over 3 million world wide if there aren't stock problems because they didn't anticipate the need to be able to ship this many in the holiday months. The issue is more about supply at the moment.
Ring Fit is currently selling 30K with supply problems in Japan and there is not much point buying it without the peripheral. It's mainly a fitness game so it doesn't make much sense to resale it. So it has very small second hand market that's probably doing pretty well in Japan atm. Digital is none-existent.
Ring Fit will end up outperforming Super Mario Party in Japan for example and it's the second big new IP Nintendo has been able to release after Splatoon. You could also check back how Wii Fit did back in 2007 when the Wii had a user base of around 5M in Japan. Outside of Pokemon there is no recent game to capture the attention of holiday shoppers.
The only question is whether Nintendo has enough of the damn game to meet demand :) a game no body had heard of 6 months ago. It's mad to think that this game might end up selling over 10 million lifetime
M-C: Super Mario Party Holiday(2018)
Week 46: Super Mario Party - 20.942 / 345.627
Week 47: Super Mario Party - 24.450 / 370.077
Week 48: Super Mario Party - 49.829 / 419.906
Week 49: Super Mario Party - 69.861 / 489.767
Week 50: Super Mario Party - 97.529 / 587.295
Week 51: Super Mario Party - 155.060 / 742.355
Week 52: Super Mario Party - 98.682 / 841.037
Week 1 2019: Super Mario Party - 95.102 / 936.140
M-C: Wii Fit Holiday(2007)
Week 48 2007: Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 261,226 / NEW
Week 49 2007: Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 149,587 / 411,000
Week 50 2007: Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 124,238 / 535,000
Week 51 2007: Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 214,334 / 749,000
Week 52 2007: Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 134,928 / 884,000
Week 01 2008: Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 127,142 / 1,011,000