Eh, I don't think Switch will reach 20 million this year personally, I'm leaning more toward 18 million.
Still, I definitely think it'll pass 100 million lifetime unless Nintendo do something unimaginably stupid like releasing a successor in 2021.
| PAOerfulone said: I would like to know their source from where exactly they got that figure because Microsoft stopped updating sales figures for the Xbox One a long time ago. |
Reading the article... seems like she cites the international data Corporation... whatever that is...
PAOerfulone said:
I actually think they're going to fall just short of 20 million this year, probably around 18.5-19 million is more likely I think. I'm starting to also think, more and more, that 2020 might be the peak year. The Switch will enter the next year with white hot momentum between Sword/Shield and the Lite model, and then not too long afterwards, we'll have Animal Crossing: New Horizons, which will be the biggest Q1 title for the Switch since Breath of the Wild. And there's going to be at least one more big, AAA Nintendo game. I think that game will be whatever the new 3D Mario game will be, rather than Breath of the Wild 2. And I'm almost certain we'll get new Pokemon games, probably the Diamond/Pearl remakes fans have been expecting and wanting since OR/AS. A year being headlined by Animal Crossing, 3D Mario, and Pokemon, for a system that's selling for $200. I'm almost certain that Breath of the Wild 2 is going to be a 2021 game. And I also think we're going to get a new hardware revision that year that's going to be upgraded hardware much like the Game Boy Color/DSi/New 3DS/PS4 Pro/Xbox One X. And I'm going to keep calling it the Nintendo Switch+ until it is either dis-confirmed or named otherwise. And I think 2021 and 2022 are going to be considerably higher than you think, especially 2022 as I think that's when we're getting Pokemon Gen 9 as a final swan song for the Switch, much like Sun/Moon was for the 3DS. I also think it's when we'll finally get Metroid Prime 4. And I think it's going to sell well above 100 million. I think 100 million is actually on the lower end of potential lifetime sales, rather than the higher end. The way I can see it playing out is this: 2017: 13 million Total: 114 million |
The numbers I posted werent my predictions, they were just hypothetical numbers that the usual suspects would use to claim "PS5/XB4 caused Switch to fall off a cliff"
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Then Xbox fans should celebrate, despite how bad their effort is this gen, they still sell better than Wii U
| curl-6 said: Eh, I don't think Switch will reach 20 million this year personally, I'm leaning more toward 18 million. Still, I definitely think it'll pass 100 million lifetime unless Nintendo do something unimaginably stupid like releasing a successor in 2021. |
18m would mean virtually no growth in Q4 after being up ~24% in Q1, up ~13% in Q2 and up ~44% in Q3.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
18m would mean virtually no growth in Q4 after being up ~24% in Q1, up ~13% in Q2 and up ~44% in Q3. |
I think it will do slightly better in Q4 on account of the Lite, but I'm not sure Sword/Shield alone can overpower the 1-2 punch of Pokemon Let's Go and Smash Ultimate last year.
| curl-6 said: Eh, I don't think Switch will reach 20 million this year personally, I'm leaning more toward 18 million. Still, I definitely think it'll pass 100 million lifetime unless Nintendo do something unimaginably stupid like releasing a successor in 2021. |
yeah, likewise Wii in 2011, stop making games of the successful console. The Wii after 2011 is a disaster nuclear area, no man's land.
curl-6 said:
I think it will do slightly better in Q4 on account of the Lite, but I'm not sure Sword/Shield alone can overpower the 1-2 punch of Pokemon Let's Go and Smash Ultimate last year. |
You're right that the exclusive software last year is probably bigger, Smash Bros > Sword/Shield, Let's Go > Luigi's Mansion, Mario Party > Mario & Sonic and like you said, Lite should cancel out any deficiencies there so I think the amount of growth will come down to how aggressive Nintendo is with bundles/discounts this holiday.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
You're right that the exclusive software last year is probably bigger, Smash Bros > Sword/Shield, Let's Go > Luigi's Mansion, Mario Party > Mario & Sonic and like you said, Lite should cancel out any deficiencies there so I think the amount of growth will come down to how aggressive Nintendo is with bundles/discounts this holiday. |
So far Nintendo doesn't seem to have been very aggressive in that regard though, as I recall they had no discounts for Holiday 2017 or 2018, and with the Lite now at $200 it doesn't seem likely they'll discount this holiday either.
curl-6 said:
So far Nintendo doesn't seem to have been very aggressive in that regard though, as I recall they had no discounts for Holiday 2017 or 2018, and with the Lite now at $200 it doesn't seem likely they'll discount this holiday either. |
That's why I included bundles in that part, I dont think we will see any price reductions but I think we can see some better added value bundles than we did last year.
Last year had the special edition Smash & Let's Go bundles but they cost the same as the console+game individually. Other than that they had the MK8D bundle for $299 on BF and a $35 eshop card included for much of December.
This year I could see the OG model MK8D bundle coming back and the $35 eshop being packed in with Lite but this time from BF all the way through Christmas for both.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
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