@yue123.
Your ignoring too many factors.
1) did they build up brand name ?
2) did they benefit from making othergames easier to devlop ( eg. Resistance engine was improved and then used as a cheap engie for Rachet ... and will be used again for resistance 2 -> making each game cheaper and cheaper to make)
3) How much profit were they expecting ?
4) Are you sure they need 400k to break even ....
5) a 25% of cost returned as profit is excellent! Its these small title with good profit which keeps the company going inbetween the blockbusters ...

This game was likely started before the PS3 was even released.
Going by the polish I saw in this game, I'm sure Sega will suffer with this one (money wise).
It has japanese appeal, but it's still a SRPG with no track record. Fortunately, Sega has a good JRPG record, so they can hope to reach 60k first week.
Anyway, I think the guns were put in to cater to the american market. Also, the character design is a bit more western like than usual. All this made me think I wouldn't want this game at first, I feared it was just another WRPG in disguise.
Fortunately, the last trailers showed that it was a true JRPG, and the shooting seems not too much and can be bypassed. Seems like a sleeper hit as far as SRPG are concerned. Perhaps it can reach the other known ones sales.
Only thing I know, is that I'll surely get this one. I'll wait though, as Agarest Senki demo made me run from the game, even though I'd buy it at a low price (and if I hadn't so many JRPG to finish already).

Has this been confirmed for a worldwide release? If so than a modest Japanease sale is fine. IF not than .....

It suppose to release in the US in September.

Yeah, that's what makes me mad... It are always the popular franchises that sell the most, no matter if they're good or totally suck. Games which are the underdog but have better qualitiy sell the least as they're driven away in the unknown.

This game looks so good that it's really sad to hear all the pessimism in its odds of selling well.

Who knows ... we maye see an over 90% selltrough of the first week shipment ... but I doubt it :?

Maybe this game increase the PS3 sales in Japan, I think a 5-10k boost.

@ manuelf

Yes, it should push PS3 pass 100k and the game should get close to 125k lifetime.

outlawauron,

do you really think the PS3 can pass 100k with this game ???