Well next week should be interesting at least..

I suspect you are mistaking 'internet fervor' with 'sales fervor': If the former was accurate Metroid would outsell everything and 2D Mario's would be pants sellers. 

Switch's 2nd worst week of the year, and yet worse weeks are yet to come in October. June, May, and October really drag down HW sales. I would be curious on what the worst famitsu weeks were in 2018.

October this year will have another tax hike though, and last time that happened, the market performed very poorly. DQXI S might turn the tides though.

I think Nintendo, Sony and MS are worried about politics so they are withholding the much needed price cuts or revisions.  I have been waiting for a revision or price cut for a very long time, so I certainly hope it still happens.

Next weeks will be interesting to watch.

Juli was packed full last year: Captain Toad, Sonic Mania Plus, Octopath Traveler, Shining Resonance: Refrain, Taiko Drum, Megaman X collection, Ys VIII... that will be very hard to keep up with this year as most big titles come out after Obon week this year.

So against that big lineup, we got this year: Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Attack on Titan 2: Final Battle, God Eater 3, Fire Emblem: 3 Houses and Rune Factory 4 Special. Not a whole lot, and mostly coming around the end of the month (Crash Team racing just didn't make it, coming out August 1st)

August should be more evenly matched, and then September the Switch starts it's afterburner. Sales in September were comparatively weak and SMP didn't bring much of a sales boost in October (though it's probably one of the reasons for the higher weekly sales this year), so in these two months the Switch this year should grow it's lead even without any new model or pricecut.

I expect about 500k lead over last year by the time Pokemon comes out. The big question is: will that be enough to hold against the PLG/SSBU 1-2 punch from last year? Or is the help of a revision/permanent pricecut needed to stay ahead?

I probably have a different idea of the game finding its sales in the west compared to you. I'm not saying that it's going to steal 5m+ from Sw|sh and give Pokemon a run for its money but rather, sell 1m+ outside of Japan with no effect on Pokemon's sales and keep the series alive if it's marketed decently and not sent out to die. The original sold 1m+ in the west with some advertising, an install base that wasn't dead for anything that wasn't Pokemon just yet and none of the hype the series enjoyed in Japan, so it is possible. Yo-Kai Watch 4 also seems like an easier sell compared to the 3DS games outside of Japan, which is why I'm optimistic.

As for Pokedex anger, I actually don't even see it as a huge factor; just another possibility in a list of possibilities as to how YW4 can find some success.  I don't think millions of people will flock to buy Yo-Kai Watch 4 because of the Pokedex uproar but I do think that for a small amount of those fans, the Pokedex was a big thing that kept them from seeing some of the faults that mainline Pokemon games had and, as a result, may look at something like Yo-Kai Watch 4 with more objectivity.  I don't see it as 'Pokemon vs. Yo-Kai Watch' but rather an event that could give Yo-Kai Watch 4 some free advertising to a couple of thousand people.

Dragon Quest is a comparison due to its same cultural impact on Japan, but Pokemon isn't competing with Dragon Quest or Persona. It was (at one point) competing with Yokai Watch and Digimon. Neither is true anymore.