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Forums - Sales Discussion - japan Sales week 21, May 20 - 26 2019, Famitsu

Mar1217 said:
Amnesia said:

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.

Always so quick to jump off the ship, are ya ?

Life is already hard and shitty enough like that...I have invested a good % of my money into Nintendo and I will make a benefit from dividends and reselling it at the right time (Jan-Feb 2020). I won't wait and lose profit just to stay loyal into a company who is not doing the best imo (surfing too much on easy paths...)

After months watching this damn stock curve every days, I have reached this conclusion (rule) which seems to work in peacefull stable economical era like now :
As long as there are a few 10+ millions seller on the pipe coming, the share keeps increasing...Which means that if before Jan 2020 Mario Kart Switch has not been announced, I jump off the ship. As soon as they announce a new 10+ millions seller coming, I buy again.



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Amnesia said:

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.

This is actually the calm before the storm.  Not only is Nintendo about to release several big games (starting with MM2), but the Japanese third party companies have barely begun to release Switch games.  Many more are coming including Dragon Quest XI S this year.

Add onto this that there will likely be some sort of cheaper model releasing this year, and it's clear that Switch sales are ready to explode.  In Japan, especially, this is going to be their primary gaming machine at home or on the go for the next several years.  



RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

Life is already hard and shitty enough like that...I have invested a good % of my money into Nintendo and I will make a benefit from dividends and reselling it at the right time (Jan-Feb 2020). I won't wait and lose profit just to stay loyal into a company who is not doing the best imo (surfing too much on easy paths...)

After months watching this damn stock curve every days, I have reached this conclusion (rule) which seems to work in peacefull stable economical era like now :
As long as there are a few 10+ millions seller on the pipe coming, the share keeps increasing...Which means that if before Jan 2020 Mario Kart Switch has not been announced, I jump off the ship. As soon as they announce a new 10+ millions seller coming, I buy again.

That's not how the stock market works. Share prices rise when a company performs above average market expectations for the company, so even buying stock of companies who lose money can be a good idea when they lose less money than expected.

Buying Nintendo shares before the launch of Switch was a good idea because market analysts were cautious about the stock, so the success of Switch led to a dramatic rise in value. You bought your shares early this year when it was already clear that Switch is a success, so the major driving forces for Nintendo's stock price now are not 10m+ sellers, because those things are already expected to happen. What has bumped the share price recently is the speculation regarding new Switch models that can help Nintendo to outperform their Switch hardware and software forecasts as well as Mario Kart On Tour which has the potential to boost Nintendo's smartphone business substantially.

The stock market is first and foremost about what other people will think about any given company. If you put your money into a company that you deem to be widely underestimated at the time you buy shares, then you can make tremendous returns. But if you buy shares of a company that everyone expects to do well already, then even strong revenue and profit numbers of that company will lead to only modest gains.

Lastly, the typical slump in May in the Japanese market is no indicator whatsoever that Switch won't reach 100m worldwide in its lifetime.

You seem to talk to me like if I was the non cultured dude who must be teached by someone smarter and more mature like you...So I will contest your first sentence easily by showing this is wrong simply :
16,95 M, lower than an already cut by 15% goal :

Puting on the market 1-2 new switchs variants will surely help, but now what we see after these last 3 weeks, is that the Switch falls to the "PS4 year 5" level of sales in Japan if there is no new releases. How many models we had with the 3DS already ? The 3DS family will end at 77M max.



"May is traditionally the weakest month for sales in Japan, so there's no good reason to react like you did."

What I see is that these last 3 weeks, last year the baseline could be maintained at 35000 with nearly nothing coming, this year, we have much more 3rd party games coming and yet it has collasped from 50000 to 26000 in 3 weeks, games like assassin creed and Sonic racing did not prevent at all this decline.



RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

"May is traditionally the weakest month for sales in Japan, so there's no good reason to react like you did."

What I see is that these last 3 weeks, last year the baseline could be maintained at 35000 with nearly nothing coming, this year, we have much more 3rd party games coming and yet it has collasped from 50000 to 26000 in 3 weeks, games like assassin creed and Sonic racing did not prevent at all this decline.

Before those last three weeks, Switch had built a year over year lead of ~300k units with hardly any noteworthy releases in 2019. There was NSMBU Deluxe in January, but not much in the months afterwards. Yoshi unsurprisingly sold far less than Kirby last year. In any case, Switch remains up year over year by a good margin and some weak weeks aren't going to undo that.

Using the spike of Golden Week as reference point for the beginning of a collapse is poor analysis (plus your 50,000 figure is the value from the year before). You might as well panic in January when sales are down after the holidays. Further bad analysis is when you mention games like Assassin's Creed and Sonic as notable highlights of third party support. A remaster of an IP that Japan doesn't particularly care about is a poor measurement and the same holds true for anything Sonic. Unlike in America and Europe, Sonic's popularity in Japan was always severely lacking. Even new mainline Sonic games struggle to pass 100k lifetime.

"You might as well panic in January when sales are down after the holidays."

Sorry here I can't answer honnestly because I would be banned...Are you serious ?? How could I panic when January 2019 was so much stronger than Jan. 2018.

But here I was comparing the last 3 weeks after Golden week in 2018 and 2019, and there is alarming numbers, or it is simply deny to not admit it.



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Oh my days, that is abysmal.....



Amnesia said:

"May is traditionally the weakest month for sales in Japan, so there's no good reason to react like you did."

What I see is that these last 3 weeks, last year the baseline could be maintained at 35000 with nearly nothing coming, this year, we have much more 3rd party games coming and yet it has collasped from 50000 to 26000 in 3 weeks, games like assassin creed and Sonic racing did not prevent at all this decline.

Last year this week Switch had Megaman Collection 1+2 and the streaming version of Resident Evil VII. So it's actually the contrary of what you're saying, last year had bigger games and thus could hold the baseline.

Also, DKCTF was only in his third week after launch, so it probably helped more with the baseline than Yoshi could 2 months after release.

Edit: From checking the sales last year, It's clear the main reason was Splatoon 2, as it was the bastselling title, followed by DKCTF, and then MK8D, Kirby Star Allies, and only then Megaman. In other words, the legs of the other games, especially Splatoon 2 and DKCTF, kept the sales high, but there weren't enough recent games to keep them high this year also.



Ok..



@nero did we get the top 30?



Question for all, could the transition to the new emperor could have some effects on the sales of the last few weeks ? I’ve heard that Golden Week was unusually longer this year because of that and that many people were unhappy of the longer holiday.