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Forums - Movies & TV - Can Avengers: Endgame take the #1 spot beating Avatar? ...It just did !!!!

 

Will Avengers:Endgame beat Avatar?

Yes 68 80.00%
 
No 17 20.00%
 
Total:85
the-pi-guy said:
China has ended screenings for the movie. Got cut short. So unless there's a surprise, beating Avatar isn't happening anymore.

Damn, is there a reason for that? Infinity War was out for ages but this one gets cut short when it's already surpassed it after just its first weeks?



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Well, adjusted for inflation, neither is #1. It definitely is looking like it could fall short unadjusted, though. Sadly, I wish the movie was as good as IW. Everything I have heard about it from people I know is that it was just okay. Not bad, but definitely not something worth grabbing the #1 spot. I guess neither was Avatar, though.



Ya its definitely not beating it. Its gonna join TFA though for titles domestically getting over 800m though.



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It probably could have easily made another $40 million in China, but The Wandering Earth could have probably made some more money also since its theater run was abruptly ended there even though it is a Chinese movie. I'm thinking so far this year no movie had great legs.



For worldwide, EndGame currently sits about $100M beneath Avatar. In major foreign/overseas markets, EndGame has not pulled in the numbers seen by Avatar from 10 years ago.

If EndGame can sustain $20M each week in worldwide box office numbers consistently over the next 5 weeks leading into Far From Home, then maybe...maybe I'll be Super Happy. [fingers-crossed]



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NightlyPoe said:
Mospeada21CA said:
For worldwide, EndGame currently sits about $100M beneath Avatar. In major foreign/overseas markets, EndGame has not pulled in the numbers seen by Avatar from 10 years ago.

If EndGame can sustain $20M each week in worldwide box office numbers consistently over the next 5 weeks leading into Far From Home, then maybe...maybe I'll be Super Happy. [fingers-crossed]

It'll happen.  It will be a bit closer than I expected, but it pulled in $100 million just in the last week.  At the moment, it's in a bit of a Zeno's paradox where it's been getting halfway to its goal each weekend because of consistent 50% drops.  It was about $800 million after its 2nd weekend, $400 million short 2 weeks ago, $200 million short after last weekend, and now it's $100 million short.

The drops won't stay at 50% forever though.  I'd guess it has about another $50 million left to go just in it's domestic run and about another $120 million internationally.

With it no longer playing in China there is no chance it will earn another $120 million internationally slightly more then $60 million is more realistic another $50 million domestic is very doable though.  So it will probably pass Avatar but just barely and not anytime soon.  I'm guessing some time in late July or early August when its very close to finishing its theatrical run world wide. 



NightlyPoe said:
Mospeada21CA said:

It'll happen.  It will be a bit closer than I expected, but it pulled in $100 million just in the last week.  At the moment, it's in a bit of a Zeno's paradox where it's been getting halfway to its goal each weekend because of consistent 50% drops.  It was about $800 million after its 2nd weekend, $400 million short 2 weeks ago, $200 million short after last weekend, and now it's $100 million short.

The drops won't stay at 50% forever though.  I'd guess it has about another $50 million left to go just in it's domestic run and about another $120 million internationally.

Well, it's currently adding less internationally than domestically, and dropping faster.

If you believe it has $50 million domestic left, then it's less than that internationally.



 

 

 

 

 

Endgame will eventually limp over the line and become the highest grossing movie of all time. Yeah it will be close, but it will eventually beat Avatar. Some things to consider:

1. It will get a small boost (a few million $) when the Spider-Man movie comes out. Captain Marvel got a small boost around the time that Endgame was released. I expect Endgame to get a similar boost.

2. Endgame will likely get a rerelease at some point. Endgame is now one of the top 20 movies of all time even if you adjust for inflation, and many of these movies got a rerelease. I expect Endgame to get similar treatment, especially if it is just shy of breaking the record.



The numbers aren't in Endgame's favor right now.

In the Domestic Box Office, Infinity War pulled in about 50 million from its 33rd to *140th day. Endgame is falling short on the day-by-day comparisons now, so it'll likely fall a fair bit short.

In the Foreign Box Office, Infinity War's 6th weekend made about 25 million. It managed to leg it another 47 million. Endgame only pulled in 17 million on its 5th weekend, so it's going to fade away a lot faster.

Even if Endgame performs exactly like Infinity War for the rest of its run, it still wouldn't be enough. But it's performing weaker in this stage and it's going to have to fend off Godzilla before Dark Phoenix even shows up.

Endgame will require a re-release to top Avatar, but Avatar could get a re-release of its own leading up to its sequels. Avatar has the edge here because it's still well-regarded in the Foreign Box Office and it would be more enticing given its ten year absence. Endgame, having just been released, isn't as likely have as broad an appeal. Home video and streaming services carves into that, but not nearly as many people have the means to enjoy Avatar in the full 3D that it's known for. I wouldn't bank on re-releases handing Endgame the coveted crown of the Worldwide Box Office, though Disney may certainly re-release both for a box office home run derby.

In either case, Zoe Saldana is in the two biggest movies of all time so she's probably feeling good no matter how it all plays out.


Edit: corrected 150th day to 140th day.

Last edited by SuaveSocialist - on 29 May 2019

No it wont. Its ending gross will be 2.768 billion. Not too bad.