Bernie invites Elon Musk on the pod to talk income inequality, greed, innovation, political revolution, tweets, taxes, and California VS. Vermont cannabis... extremely well edited for effect :)

'Happy' anniversary of the worst attack on American democracy since the Civil War. May it never happen again, though I worry that Republicans have since only made it easier to overturn the next election legally...

Well 2021 is now over. How did it go? Well let's put it this way:

-70% of Americans characterize it as having been a bad year and half say it was the worst year of their lives. Most Americans say they're hopeful for their own futures, but pessimistic about the country's. Rural Americans, white people without college degrees, religious fundamentalists, and both Republicans and independents (the latter category now includes me) are the most pessimistic, and women are feeling more pessimistic than men.

-Just 22% of Americans want President Biden to run for re-election and a survey from last month found him losing to Donald Trump in a hypothetical rematch that's likely to become reality in 2024.

-On the positive side for President Biden, his polling average is the same as in November, so things appear to have finally stabilized for the president. Unfortunately, they've stabilized at a record 12.5 percentage points underwater.

Although the public disapproves of the White House's handling of a great many issues at this point (including even Covid-19; the administration's traditional strong suit), the president's main problem is clearly the accelerating cost of living in this country. The following excerpt from the poll in the current sample with results closest to Biden's average (12 points underwater) demonstrates as much in a way that's clearer than we usually see:

Workers wages have risen by an annualized 3% in the last year, which would be impressive in a normal year, but prices have risen by 6.8% over roughly the same period of time, easily overwhelming wage gains.  What's more, as you can see above, those wage gains have been had by only a small share of the population, whereas nearly everyone is paying higher prices. Personally, my pay is the same as it was a year ago. Anyway, that 6.8% jump is the single biggest hike in the cost of living this country's seen in 39 years. Americans clearly want more action to bring the cost of living under control. Modest gestures like releasing emergency oil reserves onto the market aren't cutting it. Personally, I'm for price controls. You know, reducing prices by, well, reducing prices rather than by other less intuitive, roundabout, less effective means that are market-oriented rather than consumer-oriented. In the old days when we had a more equitable wealth distribution and felt that it was a good thing, that would've been the government's answer to this type of situation, but now that business corporations have far more power and influence today than back then, as much has unfortunately become a politically unacceptable solution, as the mere suggestion strikes uncontrollable terror in the hearts of the ruling class. That and raising the material standard of living of the population by passing the Build Back Better Act and raising the minimum wage, stuff like that that Biden and the Democrats campaigned on but find themselves unable...or more honestly unwilling...to actually do.

According to the aforementioned CNBC/Change survey, 55% of Americans also now disapprove of the administration's handling of Covid-19 due to a recent increase in the share of the public who feels that the White House's response has been insufficient. However, whereas 24% now feel that way, a much larger 50%, in contrast, feel that the Biden Administration's Covid response has too restrictive, perhaps reflecting their greater concern about their ability to afford the cost of living. (Supply chain issues > defeating the relatively mild and nigh-undefeatable omicron strain I suspect is the dominant mindset there. It's my mindset at this point anyway.)

I have to say, all these stats really mean nothing right about now. Not sure why I would even care what Joe approval level is only one year in office. Trump first year was at 41% and he still mustered 70+ million votes. No one really even liked Joe but he got 80+ million. At the end of the day, most of these poll this early just means what it always means, if people can find someone to blame for their situation they will. Until its election season is when we will see how people actual mindsets are going, this early in the game is just noise.

Its like the last stat on handling Covid. No matter what you do, everything is either sugar or shit, nothing in between. You do nothing, they complain, you do something its not enough or its to much. Joe was never going to be the savior and if America really want Trump back in office well so be it but that day is long from now and I still doubt he will run. Only if he believe that enough people get into play that can totally seal the deal for him would he run but lets see how things shake out.

A couple notes:

First of all, when you say Biden's approval ratings have stabilized "at a record 12.5 percentage points underwater", what exactly is that record? He certainly has the worst approval differential of any American president currently in office (and coincidentally, the best), but it isn't the worst approval differential ever (Trump was at -17 at this point in his presidency). 

Second, I feel the sky-is-falling mentality in regards to inflation is a bit overblown. In 2020, we saw prices decrease due to a lack of demand. As a result, real earnings increased. The decrease in real earnings that we are seeing now is largely a reversion to the mean, not a plummeting in buying power when put in context.
-In 2020, there was a 4.9% increase in real average weekly earnings (December to December)
-In 2021, there was a 1.9% decrease in real average weekly earnings (November to November due to the December data having not yet released)

If you look at the historical trend from the last five or so years, you'll see that we tend to see real weekly earnings gains around 0-1%. 2020 was anomalous in how large of a gain there was due to contexts outside of the direct work environment, so as those contexts are being reversed, we should expect to see some degree of decline. As I said before, this does not represent a plummeting in buying power. If you look at the change over the last two years, you are left with an increase of 2.7% over two years, which is still well above average. 

Further, these gains are spread over virtually every sector of the economy, not a thin sliver as you state. There is little good data indicating that such trends actually exist. Surveys are great at demonstrating how people feel, but far less good at actually representing objective realities. This is demonstrated by the fact that 31% of Biden voters say they are earning more YOY compared to only 6% of Trump voters.

Third, I feel like I sound like a broken record, but I need to point out again that your widespread bitterness in regards to the failure of Democrats to pass BBB is understandable but largely misplaced. By what evidence are you truly asserting that Biden is unwilling to pass BBB? You know, his signature bill that he has been pushing for the last year.

Well...yes and no.

First of all, the presidential election is three years away, sure, but there are also midterm elections coming up in 10 months and the outcome tends to reflect the sitting president's job approval rating. The outcome of that, in turn, will shape what's possible...and not...for the rest of Biden's first, and probably last, term.

Secondly, yes, this probably is Biden's last term as president. I mean yeah, the presidential election is three years away, but I would point out that no sitting president who polled as badly as Biden is now during their first year in office won their next election. In fact, Donald Trump and Gerald Ford are the only two presidents so far who've had worse first years in office, and they were both defeated. They were also both Republicans, which makes Joe Biden the least popular Democratic president in the history of routine on the subject relative to this point in his tenure. Democrats who were faring better than him at the analogous point, like Jimmy Carter for example, went on to defeat. There's no historical precedent for someone in Biden's position getting re-elected is my point. I also just can't picture it happening in my mind. I mean the man can barely function as things are and will be 81 years old (almost 82, in fact) by election day. If for no reason other than that, I have a difficult time imagining America electing him to a second term.

You're too much of an optimist. Trump needs to be elected president if only to evade his current, ongoing legal troubles. He has every motivation to run again, is telegraphing intent to run again, and polls in the lead for the Republican nomination by a margin of more than 50 percentage points consistently, which is just a tough temptation for any prospective candidate to ignore. He'll definitely run again, and what's more will almost certainly be the next Republican nominee. The only question in my mind is whether he'll be elected president again in 2024. Actually, scratch that: a second question in my mind is why I should care one way or the other.

Seriously, the prospects I hear named routinely as Democratic candidates for 2024 are President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, while the ones I routinely hear named as prospective candidates for the Republican nomination are obviously former President Trump, former Vice President Pence, and Florida Governor DeSantis. I have exactly zero interest in supporting any of those six candidates based on the performance of their respective duties so far, and can't help feeling like I'm probably far from alone in that sentiment. None of them are qualified.

Moreover, I find it downright depressing that the most likely 2024 scenario is factually just a rematch between Biden and Trump, who will both be in the neighborhood of 80 years old by then; by far the oldest candidates ever nominated by a major party for that position. And I mean who would be the alternative that progressives would support anyway? Let me guess: Bernie Sanders again, who will also be around 80 years old by that time? It's just like how the likely Democratic nominee for Governor of my state this year -- the only one I ever hear about running -- is Beto O'Rourke again. You see what I mean? It goes to show that, as with our movies, music, TV shows, video games, etc. etc., this country runs on nostalgia anymore. Both parties are clearly out of new candidates and out of ideas. If our choice in 2024 indeed winds up, as expected, to be a Biden vs. Trump rematch, the two dumbest, most dangerously incompetent people I've ever seen elected to the presidency, I think the very idea will yield exhaustion and exasperation from the public and an unusually large vote for third party, and possibly independent, candidates on the part of affluent, college educated, suburban voters (the people whom the Libertarians and the Greens appeal to) and an even higher rate of abstention than usual among working class voters (who, like me, are mostly "big government moderates", as I've been called; people who support increased public investment in the armed forces and police departments and also an expanded social safety net, and accordingly have no party that caters to their program in its entirety).

Anyway, on Covid, yeah, that's fair; you can't please everyone. I'm actually one of those people who's kind of with Biden on that specific issue. I felt during the summer he wasn't doing enough to combat the delta surge, but after he came out with the vaccine mandate, I felt more positively about his stance on Covid. Many liberals gripe that the current omicron surge shows he still ain't doing enough, but honestly I don't know what else he could possibly do that's within reason. He could lock the country down again and that would help slow the spread, but is that really reasonable? Or fair to the vast majority of us who are vaxxed already? Whatever. I don't think we even can beat omicron given its ability to evade basic vaccinations and I also don't care that much because of how much milder it is than earlier strains. It's a good thing in the long run that it's becoming the overwhelmingly dominant strain. That's how pandemics often end in the real world; they get more contagious by getting weaker because vaccines stop the more severe, deadlier strains, and we become able to live with them as a result. Liberals have to get over their idealistic ambition to eliminate every single Covid case in this country. It ain't gonna happen, clearly. Not by a long shot. Clearly more people than not are in Covid fatigue mode right now, including me. I'm part of that growing "vaxxed and done" camp you've been hearing about more lately. I feel that I've done my civic duty and cannot save other people from themselves and shouldn't be somehow expected to. That can't be the goal here.

I can't help but "oof" when I hear takes like this.

Words can't express my shock, considering that you always disapprove of everything I say and seem to feel morally compelled to actively let me know every single time.

A record low for the Biden presidency is what I meant, as in to say his worst polling average to date.

(Also, I may have spoken a little too soon, as his RCP average actually slipped to a new record low of -12.7% briefly the other day, indicating that further slide may yet be possible within the current time window.)

I can't help but "oof" when I hear takes like this. It just seems like you're responding to my commentary on inflation by talking about wage growth to the complete neglect of, well, inflation.

(Speaking of which, since I wrote the post you were referencing, December's consumer inflation data has been released, and it's even worse, revealing that the cost of living actually jumped a full 7 percentage points over the course of 2021. Just as an aside.)

Perhaps some more data will help get the point I was trying to make across.

The article title itself sums up the point: "People are running out of money." This is what you don't seem to be grasping.

Nearly all aid from the Covid relief bills is gone, expired, over, and people's (including my) "pandemic pay" rates have been ended. Over in Republican Land, that's cause for celebration, as it means prices should be falling right now, being as bankrupting more people always gets supply into balance with demand in their alternate reality wherein markets operate according to pure logic, but back here on Earth prices just keep going up at a steadily accelerating rate anyway because there's actually this thing called corporate greed that exists. Steps have to be taken to stifle that greed or else it will just keep getting further and further out of control. The once-touted personal savings rate is now back below pre-pandemic levels and people (presumably other than you to judge by your typical callous, condescending tone here) are experiencing real difficulty affording basic living expenses. That is real. Very real. I can speak to these realities personally. The 2020 recession was actually the best thing that ever happened to my personal finances. It was extremely stressful in other ways, but financially I was actually okay for once between three stimulus checks and a brief $2/hour pay increase, on top of which people called me an "essential worker" and would voice gratitude that I'd come to work all the time and tip me. Now that we've "recovered" and I'm back to being "unskilled" instead of essential, all that is over and my water bill is way overdue, so right now I'm thinking what people like me could use is another recession.

People mistakenly think the stock market took a beating in 2021 when the S&P in fact jumped like 21% for a banner year because most people still naively buy into capitalist ideology a lot more than I do. They figure that because their own finances suffered this last year, the financial aristocracy must have as well, being as our fates are so inextricably linked and all. And yet in reality, a good year for corporate America isn't by any means necessarily a good year for the average worker. It's sort of like a cat who ducks low in the grass thinking you can't see it because it can't see you. The cat's thinking of you as if you were another cat, when in reality I belong to different species and have a whole different vantage point. I'm much taller than the grass and can easily spot a cute kitty cat in need of some cuddles.

I've spoken my peace on this subject at considerable length before as well, but to reiterate, I fault not only Joe Manchin for transparently and consistently negotiating in bad faith with no intent of ever reaching an agreement on the BBB Act, but also President Biden for making this outcome possible in the first place by splitting up his heavily watered down version of what was once known as the Green New Deal into two separate bills (one only does that if they consider it acceptable for one part of the program to be defeated) with a clear prioritization of one of those two (the infrastructure bill, of course), which he actively made sure passed without the BBB Act. In other words, I'm honestly not sure how serious President Biden himself has ever actually been about this "signature legislation" of his and deserves his share of the blame for this outcome, as does House Speaker Pelosi and Progressive Caucus leader Jayapal for affording it, and so on. I feel that there's plenty of blame to go around here on different levels for most of the Congressional Democrats. To me, it just comes off like after the off-year elections, the Democratic Party practically as a whole essentially just gave up on passing the BBB Act and went for what they thought was easier.

A) Yeah, I like to express when I disagree with people around here. It's kind of my thing.

B) Thanks for the clarification with regards to the record that has been set.

C) A discussion about inflation without talking about other parts of our monetary system is fairly meaningless. I chose "wages" as my means of providing context to the discussion, because you too spoke about inflation in the context of wages. I don't think that is unreasonable in any way. 

D) As for your "more data", there was one big red flag that jumped out to me in that first paragraph. Comparing May to December. Personally, I find myself spending far more in the colder months like December than I do in May, which is often mild enough for me to get by without any type of heating or cooling. As such, I can't say I'm particularly surprised by people feeling worse off in a December than they do a May. A better comparison would be to look at last years data from December (using the US Census Household Pulse Survey data, comparing the timeframe encompassing the first week of December 2020 and the first week of December 2021):

December 2020: 40.5% of families reported no difficulty paying household expenses
December 2021: 39.9% of families reported no difficulty paying household expenses

That is a difference of less than 1%. For comparison, the week after that initial sample from December 2020, 38.9% of families reported no difficulty paying household expenses, a number that is lower than the number for December 2021 and to me, demonstrates that the figures for December 2021 are not outside the range expected for a December before the inflation that occurred over the course of the year. 

E) As for the data relating to saving, it seems to largely be a response to the programs that were previously enacted. That is to say, this is a return to baseline, not a catastrophic change. That however isn't to say that this baseline is particularly healthy. I support many of the measures aimed at improving the quality of life of those in lower income brackets, but as I say below, the first thing we need to do is accurately diagnose the problem. The problem here doesn't seem to be inflation, but rampant income inequality and lackluster public investment (and a lot of other related or semi-related things). 

F) I largely agree with your assessment of where much of this inflation is coming from. While some is certainly responsive to economic necessities (such as chip shortages and increased labor costs), others are the result of corporate greed. The feeling exists that there is more money to make (partially as a result of the savings cycle you mentioned and the wage increases), so businesses are increasing costs betting that people will continue to pay. As of now, they seem to have largely bet right, but it still disappoints me that Democrats like Biden have let them get away with it, largely at their own expense. I feel the first thing that should be done about it is to simply diagnose the problem but obviously that alone won't fix it. Beyond that, I'm not entirely sure what the solution is. I support price controls on things such as Insulin and housing, but on everyday items, that seems like a bit of a dangerous path. 

G) Why would you assume that things would be any different if the infrastructure bill was tied to BBB? If the two were tied together, the difference that we'd be seeing today is that nothing would have been passed and we'd still be in this same situation. Yes, of course the bill that fewer people objected to was easier, but I see no real moral or political failing in passing it. 

My main question is why would you believe that anything would change no matter how the BBB was brought up.  The same 2 A holes would still be there and they would still do exactly what they have done already.  So what you are saying is that instead of splitting the Infrastructure bill and BBB but keep it all together, the BBB would have passed.  Do you really think the way the current House and Senate is made up that the Green New Deal would make it to Biden's desk, lets be realistic here.

Lets first think about the first hurdle.  How would it get pass the Senate through filibuster, not a chance.  Then lets be realistic based on the moderate Dems who definitely would not be trilled to get that huge monster to Biden desk.  Hell, they can barely get the cut down version through reconciliation what makes you believe that huge Green new deal would even go through reconciliation.  So we are left with a huge spending bill that I doubt would have passed the house but lets say it did and hits the Senate.  You would need 60 votes in the Senate and there is absolutely no chance that is going to happen unless a miracle happens.  Then you still have the same 2 a holes on the Dem side trying to kill everything like they already have.  Why would their agenda change, if anything you can believe Manchin would not budge an inch.  The Green new deal was never and I mean never going to get through both houses of Congress in its original form.  

So yeah, they split the bill because the chances of getting it through in one big bill was nil.  Yes, it does not have everything the progressives want because progressives do not run the house or senate and thus they need to fight to get what they can to the President desk.