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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Coming at the End of 2020 According to Analyst: High-Spec Hardware for Under $500

 

Price, SKUs, specs ?

Only Base Model, $399, 9-10TF GPU, 16GB RAM 24 30.00%
 
Only Base Model, $449, 10-12TF GPU, 16GB RAM 13 16.25%
 
Only Base Model, $499, 12-14TF GPU, 24GB RAM 21 26.25%
 
Base Model $399 and PREMIUM $499 specs Ans3 10 12.50%
 
Base Mod $399 / PREM $549, >14TF 24GB RAM 5 6.25%
 
Base Mod $449 / PREM $599, the absolute Elite 7 8.75%
 
Total:80

Lol. Yasuda is just a Sony hater.
Don't trust him.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

But I agree with the sentiment, and I'm sure you're not gonna be alone with that. I already predicted about 2 years ago that the next gen will have a slow start due to this, as there's simply not enough time to get enough visual distance between themselves and the Pro/X mid-gen upgrade consoles. As a result, I fear both Sony and Microsoft possibly shot themselves in the foot with the upgrades, as they are leeching sales from their still unreleased successors. Or do you think anybody who bought a Pro/X now will buy a PS5/Xbox next anytime soon? Probably not too many, even moreso with Gamestop faltering, making trade-in potentially much more difficult by that time.

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.



zorg1000 said:
"According to Yasuda-san’s prediction, the new hardware will be a high-spec console priced at less than $500. Multiple AAA titles will also accompany its launch and support sales."

That's about the safest prediction I've ever seen.

Ha that was my exact thought. This guy sounds like the John Madden of game analysts.



If BC is there at the launch of a new console not 5 years in when it doesn't really matter that much, plus a TLOU2 or Ghosts of T at launch.

I plus millions more will jump right in, without hesitation.

If either of those are missing, many will be reserved and will be on a wait & see approach.



Pemalite said:
taus90 said:

So u r saying an SoC equivalent to 7850 paired with Jaquar CPU technically an APU clocked at 1.6 is on par with PS4? .. and again 7950 paired with a mobile Jaquar CPU clocked at 1.6 will run Battlefield 5, High Setting, at 60fps?

I didn't mention anything about an APU or CPU.
But even a shitty AMD FX 6300 could probably do it.

Fact is... On the GPU side of the equation, you do not need twice the GPU performance to match a PS4.

I guess many folks forgot this (which was quite a surprise to me back then):




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HoloDust said:
Pemalite said:

I didn't mention anything about an APU or CPU.
But even a shitty AMD FX 6300 could probably do it.

Fact is... On the GPU side of the equation, you do not need twice the GPU performance to match a PS4.

I guess many folks forgot this (which was quite a surprise to me back then):


 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 Ti can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

Last edited by Nate4Drake - on 08 February 2019

”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Nate4Drake said:
DonFerrari said:

Next gen with power near X1X is kinda pointless.

I agree.   I'm confident the combination CPU/GPU/RAM of Anaconda and PS5 will be a significant jump over X and PRO.

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Conina said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

But I agree with the sentiment, and I'm sure you're not gonna be alone with that. I already predicted about 2 years ago that the next gen will have a slow start due to this, as there's simply not enough time to get enough visual distance between themselves and the Pro/X mid-gen upgrade consoles. As a result, I fear both Sony and Microsoft possibly shot themselves in the foot with the upgrades, as they are leeching sales from their still unreleased successors. Or do you think anybody who bought a Pro/X now will buy a PS5/Xbox next anytime soon? Probably not too many, even moreso with Gamestop faltering, making trade-in potentially much more difficult by that time.

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Nate4Drake said: 
HoloDust said: 

I guess many folks forgot this (which was quite a surprise to me back then):

 

 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

Generally in those tests, the settings are set in a way to mimic those of the console (or the strongest one, generally PS4, if several console versions are tested side by side with the PC version) the closest way possible to avoid inaccuracies.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 08 February 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nate4Drake said:

I agree.   I'm confident the combination CPU/GPU/RAM of Anaconda and PS5 will be a significant jump over X and PRO.

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Conina said:

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Sony is not spending what normal consumers spend for the GPU, and all other components(https://www.gamespot.com/articles/we-built-a-pc-using-ps4-pro-specs-how-does-it-perf/1100-6443491/), so the price point you made is a bit off;  I agree with you that we can't have the state of the art inside a console for all the reasons we know, but by the end of 2020, at a price of $449 you might have an interesting piece of hardware, sure much much more powerful than PS4 PRO.  We have just to wait and see.

Last edited by Nate4Drake - on 08 February 2019

”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Nate4Drake said:
HoloDust said:

I guess many folks forgot this (which was quite a surprise to me back then):


 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 Ti can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

It's Digital Foundry comparison from way back in 2015, they used to do this for every game they did article on (IIRC), comparing it to budget build PC with 750Ti card.

Settings are as close as possbile to PS4 version - you can check link to articles below videos on YT, if here's no link just search Face off "name of the game you're interested in"



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nate4Drake said:

I agree.   I'm confident the combination CPU/GPU/RAM of Anaconda and PS5 will be a significant jump over X and PRO.

Can't be, for 2 reasons:

1. Heat. A Vega, which comes close to the 1080 in power, consumes more power than an entire console. And downclocked to it's sweet spot the performance gain over the X is pretty weak.

2. Price. High-end GPUs cost way over 500$ (the Vega VII that got released today costs 700$ for instance), so you can't expect these to be built into a console unless production costs would at least match, if not exceed PS3 initial costs

Conina said:

Not a big problem at all.

How many PS4s sold are Pro-models? Probably less than 10%: zero percent of the 43 million PS4s sold until the Pro-launch and probably less than 20% of the 50 million units sold after that... around 8 - 10 million PS4 Pros.

How many Xbox Ones sold are X-models? Probably less than 7%: zero percent of the 30 million Xbox Ones sold until the X-launch and probably less than 20% of the 12 million units sold after that... around 2 - 3 million Xbox One X.

Many of these 10 - 13 million Pro/X buyers are early adopters and/or enthusiasts and they will switch to the next consoles quite fast.

Much more than you think, I fear.

Have a look at the NPD prediction tool, where I try to find exactly that out - and over half of the PS4/XBO consoles sold nowadays in the US are Pro or X. In fact, the X has a whooping 80% ratio over the S right now (which is probably also why the S is so often on sale - it just doesn't sell anymore otherwise), while Pro and slim are more or less at equal terms.

If we expand that to global sales, and reduce the ratio a bit in favor of the slim/S models, then out of 280k weekly sales between PS4 and XBO probably still mean 120k Pro/X models sold per week outside of holidays by now. And while the sales of PS4 and XBO are slowly dropping, it's almost exclusively the base models that are dropping right now, giving the Pro and X an increasingly large market share.

In fact, since the Pro is already 2 full years on the market and the PS4 as a whole sold over 38M WW, I'm very sure at least one quarter of those sales are Pro sales, which by itself would already almost match your figures. And with 11.5M in the US alone, it's quite possible the Pro is closing in on 5M sold there by now. As for the X, look the first paragraph.

In other words, those 10-13 million you mention can very well be just globally in the US right now instead of worldwide. I'm pretty sure that Pro+X, taken together, already sold 15M+ and are by now close to half of all their consoles' share in weekly sales. Which means that until the next gen's release, there will be at least some additional 15M Pro and X consoles being sold, bringing their share to at least 30M consoles if the ratio stays the same, but 35-40M seem pretty plausible with their rising market share for then by now. And 30-40M who potentially won't upgrade because there's not too much of an upgrade can be pretty hefty, especially early on.

Also, don't forget that those enthusiasts who will upgrade mostly also sell their old console. A new new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$, what would you choose?

Nate4Drake said: 

 It's the 1st time I see this comparison, interesting.   So the GTX 750 can perform better than the PS4 GPU ?  And what about graphics, IQ and effects ?

Generally in those tests, the settings are set in a way to mimic those of the console (or the strongest one, generally PS4, if several console versions are tested side by side with the PC version) the closest way possible to avoid inaccuracies.

Sony themselves have said about 20-25% of the consoles sold after Pro have been Pro. So about 10-12M Pros so far in the market. That is about the enthusiast customers that will probably buy PS5 on the first 2 years anyway.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."