If they can release base consoles with double the GPU power of the X1X, along with 16GB of RAM and significantly better CPU at $399, I'd argue premium consoles at launch are not that crucial. But the likelihood of that seems really low to me, I'd like to be wrong though.

You just made a straw man. I said "SOME GAMES" and a resolution boost is huge when its games in the ball park of 720p. You already know some of the games I'm referring to so I won't drag this discussion further.

Significant CPU and RAM upgrades should be equal on the base and premium in my opinion. I mean a CPU capable of 60 fps gaming isn't expensive and 16GB of RAM dedicated to games should be more than enough. The X1X is already giving 9GB of RAM for games so its not a big upgrade per se

I think people are making a mistake using X1X as a point reference. Firstly it assumes that it's hardware is fully  being utilised in most games (it's not) & it assumes that native 4k will be the target for most AAA PS5  games (I don't think it will).

Do you really expect them to get back 300$ for an used console? 100-200$ seem more likely to me.

I'm sure the Pro sold fine given PS4 is a top selling console already. But I don't see much hype or fanfare over it, I genuinely feel Sony was too concerned about sticking to $399 that they made an underwhelming premium console and its an edge they didn't need to give MS.

If Sony makes a base for $399 and a premium for $599, I don't think the mid gen upgrade would be as necessary. The 8th gen upgrades are primarily GPU upgrades, they can have double or triple the GPU power at launch as well. After a few years people could upgrade to the premium for about $399.

Significant CPU and RAM upgrades should be equal on the base and premium in my opinion. I mean a CPU capable of 60 fps gaming isn't expensive and 16GB of RAM dedicated to games should be more than enough. The X1X is already giving 9GB of RAM for games so its not a big upgrade per se.

You wrote yourself: A new console for 499$ or an used Pro/X with almost the same visuals for 249$

And I also wrote $200 - $300 depending on the model and condition... a 3 - 6 months old Xbox One X with a second controller could still be sold for $300, why not?

We also don't know the prices of the PS5 / Xbox Two... if they only cost $399 instead of $499 then your suggested $100 - $200 for a used pro/X would be enough to bring down the upgrade costs of the early adopter to $200 - $300.

If they cost $449 instead of $499 then $150 - $250 for a used Pro/X (depending on their condition) would be enough to bring down the upgrade costs of the early adopter to $200 - $300.

The Nintendo Switch is a good example of it, but the problem I had was even when I got my Switch in July, the other games that came out (Arms and Splatoon 2) didn't interest me despite the fact that I did buy them and gave them a genuine chance. I guess the problem is not just exclusive to Sony's lack of great system sellers with the PS4 (no offense to those who disagree or liked those games), it's also that third parties did not step up to the plate and instead offered massive sellers that were received as mediocre. It has to be an effort from everyone to make the system feel special throughout it's first year. 

I agree with you. Although I kind of think at least one of those games (Tsushima, Death Stranding, TLOU2) will get a definitive edition. Makes them a lot of money. There's a couple of other ways they can make the system special.

For one, I think it would be smart to release one of the cross-gen games on the same date as the release of the console, similar to BOTW. But then release the next exclusive (probably Horizon 2) 1-3 months after that. This way they can make the console launch popular with a game people would rather play on next gen consoles anyways (probably Tsushima), and it won't cost a lot of development time either because the game was already being made for PS4. BUT they'll also have a brand new game made specifically for PS5 around the launch window as well. 

Also, the obvious: backwards compatibility. It would be a great feature especially because with development times increasing, I think that a lot of the best 8th gen games are coming near the end of the generation. 

Also: " Naughty Dog new IP ? I can see it 2 years from release, and the next God of War the year after."

 You think God of War 5 will release in 2023? I think that's kinda late. They'll probably use the same engine as GOW 2018 and just modify it. I expect a 2021 release tbh. Or early 2022 maybe.

Afaik Gamestop sometimes buys consoles for 50$ and resells them for 250$. But in any case if they sell a used console for 249$ you can bet your ass they didn't pay over 200$ for it, probably more like 150$ or less.

Well the $599 option isn't supposed to thrive in the same way as the base model. Its for people who want high visual fidelity and willing to pay a premium and it makes the visual disparity between console and PC less significant. Ideally I would like RAM and CPU to be equal so the base model games don't suffer outside of GPU limitations. Just make sure base model are equipped with significant RAM and CPU capabilities that should be needed for the 9th gen.

Here's a question though, how much better can a $399 PS5/new Xbox be compared to the current $499 (sometimes $399) Xbox One X? MS made a great machine with the X1X and it might make the base units of the 9th gen underwhelming. Hence, for a significant visual boost in the 9th gen we might need premium consoles at launch.

I don't think it really matters if the premium hardware can still improve the presentation/performance.

I mean we could argue the Xbox One X is held back significantly by the Xbox One S. However, there is a still massive disparity between them. The disparity is so huge in some games that it doesn't feel like X1X is being held back at all.

Well I'm thinking mindshare and advertising wise it's just better to evenly space things.  Plus Sony is great about stacking exclusives until a console is dead but they could honestly do that a little less and I'd still consider their support wonderful.  They had Sly 4, Puppeteer, GT6, TLoU, and Beyond 2 Souls in 2013 for PS3.  Now do I want them to abandon their previous gen console and have nothing for it in its last years like Xbox did last gen?  No.  But do I think stuff like Puppeteer and Sly 4 could have done better as the new gen titles and could GT6 have been their definitive next gen racing game in 2014 and therefore helped sales even more?  Yes.

I think people are making a mistake using X1X as a point reference. Firstly it assumes that it's hardware is fully  being utilised in most games (it's not) & it assumes that native 4k will be the target for most AAA PS5  games (I don't think it will).

With all its beefed up specs the X1X still does not have a game which looks as good of God of War, Uncharted 4 or The Last of Us II.... fundementally its playing Xbox One S games with resolution cranked up & some minor texture/stability improvements. Resolution is nice but it's really not responsible for the wow factor when a new shiny game is shown off.. There are still people on this forum who think that TLOU2 demo is secretly running on the PS5 ( ND have confirmed its running on PS4Pro) and Sony didn't need 4k to achieve the illusion of next gen.

... 

So really our question should be looking at the base PS4 which doesn't have a significantly lower spec system holding back (unlike Xbox One X being held back by base systems), and manages to achieve stellar results, normally at 1080p 30fps. With PS5 developers will be working with a new base system 6-8x the flops, 6-8x the memory bandwith, 2-3x the overall RAM, a CPU which will run circles around  Pro or X1X's jaguar cores and Navi architecture which will bring efficiencies everywhere. The only thing 1X games show us, is that cross gen PS5 titles will comfortable output 4k, 60fps with all the bells and whistles.

Where games built for the next gen are concerned, I think many AAA developers will go for upscalling solutions and push CGI quality visuals before pushing native 4k. The audience (and TV's) just isn't there to make 4k the target, not when there'll be new up-scaling solutions which offer something comparable to 4k at half the performance cost. Pro and 1X solely exist to offer resolution jumps (and aren't exactly selling like hotcakes) but when the new wave of systems are the baseline I'm sure we'll see targets (and gfx settings) all over the place including unapologetic 1080p. And on that note I do not think sony will offer 2 SKU's at launch. For Microsoft it's important because they need to find a way to undercut Sony and rejoin the race, but offering separate 1080p and 4k systems out the gate doesn't sound like it's ideal from a development standpoint and I think Sony will just release one SKU. Supersampling will still benefit 1080p users, users won't have to purchase a new system when they decide to update their TV sets and developers will feel more free to create games in their own vision, their own targets and have a more powerful baseline to work with as opposed to a gimped 1080p box (Lockhart/re-purposed X1X with a new CPU).

As opposed to the hype and fanfare of the xbox x? Well thats just from a vocal minority hence why the ps4 Pro outsells it big time. 

Well. The Premium consoles should be a step up again. But I personally think a Premium console should launch a couple years later to take advantage of new technology... But there is not likely to be any newer Graphics Core Next GPU's to help retain backwards compatibility after Navi, so that makes things tricky.

The point I am making is that... All that extra horsepower... And the most you are generally getting is just a resolution/framerate boost.

If we go back to the 7th gen when majority of games were 720P or under... The PC used most of it's extra horse power to drive resolutions and framerates up with better texturing, lighting, shadowing, draw distances, models, physics, audio and so on... Yet many claimed the PC was just not optimized because the 7th gen games could get away with just 512MB of Ram.

And now that we have the same situation replicated with the "Premium" consoles... It makes the argument a little more interesting.

As long as they are ISA compatible, it shouldn't really matter.

More Ram is necessary on a premium console because you generally need a larger framebuffer... And extra room for potentially better texturing and other assets.