You realize what site you are on, right?
Why do you think 500M ? 425M should be enough no ? The movie's budget is 170M so we do x2.5 (marketing included) = 425M.
Go to see the movie man, it's very good.
I just kinda doubt they only spent $42M on advertising. They had a Superbowl ad, that was ~$5.5M on its own for (mainly) just the US audience. They have been pushing this pretty hard, so ~$85M seems like a good estimate. BOM also seems to agree, giving a number of $500-$550M to break even.
And we have foreign numbers in for the weekend, now. This is the 2nd weekend for Alita in the international market and it has yet to cross $95M. So, WW, with 4 days in NA and 10-12 days in foreign markets, it has a total of ~$131M. If it gets a 2x multiplier from this point on, that's ~$262M WW. So, that will be ~$238M that China and Japan, and possibly some other smaller markets it will release in in the coming weeks, will have to make up for. Just don't see it happening.