PS4 had bundles on the other hand. And even if it didn't, catching up to PS4 this late in the get is impossible.

I think you're right about US market, 1.2m is too law if Benji is correct. Europe it's overtracked but I think 500k overtracking units is too much, maybe 300k is a right guess. RotW who knows. Btw I think 1.6/1.7m WW is probably the best guess after all

ROTW is usually a place where PS consoles make the difference with its competitors (PS3 lifetime ROTW 12'46M, Wii 9'48M as an example)

Switch in 2017 = 1'6M, PS4 in 2017 = 4'9M; Switch in 2018 = 2'9M , PS4 in 2018 = 3'3M (both with a week left)

*according to VGC

We will see for sure in 2 weeks, but I expect the Switch to be undertracked, not just in the US but also Europe and RoW, and expect sell-through to be closer to 15M by end of 2018.

I agree about Q4, those numbers seem too high. Some weeks might be beaten depending on releases, but I expect mostly 30-50K less for the weekly sales, which adds up to about 500K. So 1.2M more by end of Q3 minus those 500K means 700K plus, which with shipments add up to 20M

If you think EU is only 300k overtracked that would still be around 4'5M and a 32% growth YOY. With its two biggest markets around 20-24% growth, and Germany seemingly in the same pace, that growth for Europe in total is still too much.

Surely that growth didn't happened here in Italy lol. It's one of the best market for Sony as much as Spain. I think that a 20% growth here is reasonable or maybe more, who knows. We'll know the truth only on 31st of January ;)

I agree with you on America/Europe, one is over and the other under but they cancel each other out.

RotW however could possibly correct. Like I said in last weeks thread, it didn't release until late in 2017 in certain South American & Asian countries.

For example, it launched in South Korea on December 1 and did over 100k by the end of 2017. If it did 100k in 1 month than what did it do in the following 12? Is 250-300k out of the question, a 150-200% increase.

Yup, i remember your comment, that's why i added Argentina.....

And yes, US and EU will probably cancel each out. I was expecting myself 2'1-2'3M in US in December, o I expect 0'6-0'8M more, and in Europe I expect 4'1-4'2M for the year, so, probably 0'6-0'7M less.

If ROTW is ok, then Switch should be around 16'8M by the end of the year according to VGC. I expected 16'3M from months, like i discussed numerous times here, so if it end, i'm only around 500k off, i will buy it.

Yes, it's possible. Very much so, in fact.

Those countries are where the Playstation is making Sonyland actually a thing. If you just add the big 3 together, then Switch will be pretty close to the PS4 (600K difference, mostly from Germany as UK and France mostly cancel each other out) - yet with all the other countries PS4 will be far in front (by 2.7M, over 4 times more than just with the big 3). Without those countries the PS4 wouldn't be dominating the continent nearly as much.

It's also where the PS4 sales were mostly dropping compared to last year, since Japan is mostly stable and US even potentially up compared to last year. Nintendo has possibly taken over some market share from Sony there.

Hnm what about china? I know there are some restrictions but switch was first in amazon ch for a long time (and even a small increase could mean so much in such big population)