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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Final Results

(Repost from Famitsu thread)
So, I did a bit of digging and calculating for when the DS Lite and 3DS XL launched in Japan and how they affected DS and 3DS sales respectively before and after their launch.

DS Lite - Launched March 2, 2006:
Before: 43,765
After: 124,286 - 184% increase

3DS XL - Launched July 28, 2012
Before: 43,291
After: 239,273 - 453% increase

This is how the Switch Lite would affect sales next week if it has one of those two percentage increases:
Before: 51,619
After (184%) 146,590
After (453%) 285,303

We should expect the Switch Lite affect to be somewhere in the middle, although I think we'll get something closer to the DS Lite effect than the 3DS XL one. Next week's numbers are going to be big ones; Very important ones for the Switch and Nintendo.



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PAOerfulone said:
(Repost from Famitsu thread)
So, I did a bit of digging and calculating for when the DS Lite and 3DS XL launched in Japan and how they affected DS and 3DS sales respectively before and after their launch.

DS Lite - Launched March 2, 2006:
Before: 43,765
After: 124,286 - 184% increase

3DS XL - Launched July 28, 2012
Before: 43,291
After: 239,273 - 453% increase

This is how the Switch Lite would affect sales next week if it has one of those two percentage increases:
Before: 51,619
After (184%) 146,590
After (453%) 285,303

We should expect the Switch Lite affect to be somewhere in the middle, although I think we'll get something closer to the DS Lite effect than the 3DS XL one. Next week's numbers are going to be big ones; Very important ones for the Switch and Nintendo.  With two products/price points that will both be desirable to the market I think the baseline will increase significantly.

I replied on that thread about how I'm curious about the long-term effects of Switch Lite.  Here's my prediction:  175K-200K next week.  After that, I think the weekly number will be in the 110K - 130K range and then ramp up from there for the holidays.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

kenjab said:
PAOerfulone said:
(Repost from Famitsu thread)
So, I did a bit of digging and calculating for when the DS Lite and 3DS XL launched in Japan and how they affected DS and 3DS sales respectively before and after their launch.

DS Lite - Launched March 2, 2006:
Before: 43,765
After: 124,286 - 184% increase

3DS XL - Launched July 28, 2012
Before: 43,291
After: 239,273 - 453% increase

This is how the Switch Lite would affect sales next week if it has one of those two percentage increases:
Before: 51,619
After (184%) 146,590
After (453%) 285,303

We should expect the Switch Lite affect to be somewhere in the middle, although I think we'll get something closer to the DS Lite effect than the 3DS XL one. Next week's numbers are going to be big ones; Very important ones for the Switch and Nintendo.  With two products/price points that will both be desirable to the market I think the baseline will increase significantly.

I replied on that thread about how I'm curious about the long-term effects of Switch Lite.  Here's my prediction:  175K-200K next week.  After that, I think the weekly number will be in the 110K - 130K range and then ramp up from there for the holidays.

A 110-130k baseline is not happening.

After the big price cut in summer 2011, 3DS baseline went from 20-40k to 50-70k and after the XL released in summer 2012 the baseline went from 50-60k to 60-80k.

Switch baseline has been around 30-50k for most of the spring/summer so something like 50-80k is more likely.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Didn't monster hunter also come out at the same time with the 3ds xl? Or am I mistaken



MasonADC said:
Didn't monster hunter also come out at the same time with the 3ds xl? Or am I mistaken

That was New 3DS/XL. 3DS XL launched with New Super Mario Bros.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Edit: Zorg beat me to it.



PAOerfulone said:

Edit: Zorg beat me to it.

Better luck next time



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mar1217 said:
Can't wait to see it reach a 500K lead next week :P

Apparently next week could actually be over 200k... in other words it could jump right past 400k and 500k and go straight to 600k! Now that would be a jump!

Looks like it's happening!

At worst it seems like it could be about 595k from the chart from Famitsu:

But I'm confident that it will break the 600k number in terms of lead over the last year. It will be tight, but it looks very possible now



The fated day is finally here. The Nintendo Switch Lite has arrived and the results are immediate and gargantuan with a roughly 364% increase from the week before.
With a little over 239k sold on launch week, the Switch is now up YoY by slightly over 600k units! Now, it should be all 2019 from here to early November.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 25 September 2019

What do you guys think? Will it beat the 4.8M of the 3DS in 2013?

I think the Switch has a shot now to do so.