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Forums - Sales Discussion - When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

 

When (if at all) Do You Think the NS Hardware Sales LTD Will Overtake XOne's?

Q1-2 2019 69 4.20%
 
Q3-4 2019 552 33.58%
 
Q1-2 2020 394 23.97%
 
Q3-4 2020 363 22.08%
 
Q1-2 2021 68 4.14%
 
Q3-4 2021 53 3.22%
 
Q1-2 2022 15 0.91%
 
Q3-4 2022 11 0.67%
 
2023 or later 19 1.16%
 
Never 100 6.08%
 
Total:1,644
curl-6 said:

Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year.

That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order.

Looking more like the gap shrank by 9 million or more in 2018.

YTD 2018 (2 weeks left)

NSW-14.3m

XBO-6.9m

Difference-7.4m

 

Last 2 weeks 2017

NSW-1.86m

XBO-0.73m

Difference-1.13m

 

Switch is having a significantly stronger December than last year while XBO is roughly flat. Up ~30% vs up ~2% in first half of month. If the next two weeks follow that than it will be

Last 2 weeks of 2018

NSW-2.42m

XBO-0.74m


2018 Total

NSW-16.72m

XBO-7.64m

Difference-9.08m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year.

That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order.

Looking more like the gap shrank by 9 million or more in 2018.

YTD 2018 (2 weeks left)

NSW-14.3m

XBO-6.9m

Difference-7.4m

 

Last 2 weeks 2017

NSW-1.86m

XBO-0.73m

Difference-1.13m

 

Switch is having a significantly stronger December than last year while XBO is roughly flat. Up ~30% vs up ~2% in first half of month. If the next two weeks follow that than it will be

Last 2 weeks of 2018

NSW-2.42m

XBO-0.74m


2018 Total

NSW-16.72m

XBO-7.64m

Difference-9.08m

Ah, I didn't realize, thanks.

Still, that means we'll have to go from a 9 million gain in 2018 to a 13.5 million gain in 2019. Not impossible, but still a big enough jump to be far from guaranteed.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Looking more like the gap shrank by 9 million or more in 2018.

YTD 2018 (2 weeks left)

NSW-14.3m

XBO-6.9m

Difference-7.4m

 

Last 2 weeks 2017

NSW-1.86m

XBO-0.73m

Difference-1.13m

 

Switch is having a significantly stronger December than last year while XBO is roughly flat. Up ~30% vs up ~2% in first half of month. If the next two weeks follow that than it will be

Last 2 weeks of 2018

NSW-2.42m

XBO-0.74m


2018 Total

NSW-16.72m

XBO-7.64m

Difference-9.08m

Ah, I didn't realize, thanks.

Still, that means we'll have to go from a 9 million gain in 2018 to a 13.5 million gain in 2019. Not impossible, but still a big enough jump to be far from guaranteed.

I would say it's highly likely that Switch sees further growth in 2019 and XBO has a moderate decline so even if it doesnt pass XBO in 2019 it will be very close and should easily do it in the first few months of 2020.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Ah, I didn't realize, thanks.

Still, that means we'll have to go from a 9 million gain in 2018 to a 13.5 million gain in 2019. Not impossible, but still a big enough jump to be far from guaranteed.

I would say it's highly likely that Switch sees further growth in 2019 and XBO has a moderate decline so even if it doesnt pass XBO in 2019 it will be very close and should easily do it in the first few months of 2020.

Oh I also think Switch should be up YOY and Xbone down, but enough to gain by 4.5 million more than last year? I dunno, to me it just feels like 2020 is more likely.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Okay, much as I agree Switch will definitely pass Xbox One lifetime, I don't see why so many are so confident it'll happen this year.

That's a 14 million gap to close, while the gap shrank by roughly 8.5 million in 2018. So we'd have to see a YOY combined Switch increase/Xbone decline of 5.5 million in 2019 for Switch to take point. That's a tall order.

It's simple. Switch is likely to end this year with around 30m consoles sold which will put it's yearly sales to ~17m. Xbox One will end this year with a little bit more than 43m consoles sold which will put it's yearly sales to around 7.5m. With that said the most likely outcome in 2019 would be Switch seeing a growth and selling 20m and Xbox One seeing a small decline with drop to 6-7m yearly sales. Both consoles should finish this year at around 50m mark.



 

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curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

I would say it's highly likely that Switch sees further growth in 2019 and XBO has a moderate decline so even if it doesnt pass XBO in 2019 it will be very close and should easily do it in the first few months of 2020.

Oh I also think Switch should be up YOY and Xbone down, but enough to gain by 4.5 million more than last year? I dunno, to me it just feels like 2020 is more likely.

This is my guess

2019

NSW, 18-20m

XBO, ~6.5m

LTD

NSW, 48-50m

XBO, ~50m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

That will depend on X1 pricing, so let`s see:

Scenario 1:  

MS dropping their prices early on the year:
X1X at ~$429.99 with $349.99 holidays promotions
X1S at ~$249.99 with $179.99 holidays promotions
End of 2018 -  43.5m
End of 2019 -  43.5m + 7.5 = 51m (MINIMUM)

Scenario 2:  

MS dropping the ball and not cutting their prices early on the year:
End of 2018 -  43.5m
End of 2019 -  43.5m + 5.5 = ~49m

 

Switch only scenario (sorry but I just do not see Nintendo cutting the price nor doing any refresh model this year).

End of 2018 -  30m
End of 2019 -  30m + 19 = ~49m

 

So..  my answer would be either Q1 or Q2 2020.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

I would say it's highly likely that Switch sees further growth in 2019 and XBO has a moderate decline so even if it doesnt pass XBO in 2019 it will be very close and should easily do it in the first few months of 2020.

Oh I also think Switch should be up YOY and Xbone down, but enough to gain by 4.5 million more than last year? I dunno, to me it just feels like 2020 is more likely.

Tbh with Fire Emblem, Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing I can see that happening especially if the expected price cut happens.