Well, I can take your word for it or the guys who work in the industry. Unfortunately, you don't have the credentials. ;)
If you are talking about NPD, their opinions are best taken with a grain of salt. They are a business and always have to present things to make their customers happy.
As I do each month, I'll take them at their word. Yes, they are a business ~ in the business to present data as accurately as possible. No reason for me to not take Matt at his word (otherwise, for consistency, you will have to visit every NPD thread from here on out and question the results).
If they've ever been wrong, I'd be happy to see how/when and will adjust my view accordingly.