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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 1 December 2018

zorg1000 said:

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.

Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.

I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.

Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

And this is anther thing. I think none f those games are coming next year. Only ones I think we get are Dreams and Days Gone. And of course Kingdom hearts 3 which might as well be called an exclusive. 

TLoU2, GoT an DS I think will all come in 2020 as cross platform releases. 

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 

Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing. 

At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.

Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.

Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.

Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.

I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.

Errorist76 said:

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 

Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing. 

At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.

Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.

Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.

TO hold off a game you put hundred millions to make for 2 years is a lot of lost money and doesn't make sense.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.

Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.

I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.

Errorist76 said:

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 

Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing. 

At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.

Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.

Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.

Ok I see what you're saying now. At the end of 2016 PS4 had a 3.7 million shipped vs sold difference so it wouldnt be unheard of for that to happen but that's definitely on the higher side of what retailers would want.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:
CGI-Quality said:

Technically, the Wii was the PS2 for Nintendo consoles :P. It was Nintendo's anomaly. PlayStation had already dominated in a similar fashion before the PS2 came along.

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either. People are setting a bar that it probably won't reach, and thus, leaving themselves open for mocking when it doesn't. 130-140m is a better bet, which would still be an astounding result.

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

lol, I think the whole site have witnessed that in the last couple of days.  But don't worry, doesn't look like lowballing the PS4 causes such a strong reaction as lowballing other things around here.



chakkra said:
Intrinsic said:

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

lol, I think the whole site have witnessed that in the last couple of days.  But don't worry, doesn't look like lowballing the PS4 causes such a strong reaction as lowballing other things around here.

owwww you, jester...



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Good numbers all around. Switch should do 1m+ every week from now on.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Relatively calm week, as expected, after BF, anyhow regarding current gen, XBOne suffers from the highest percent drop WoW (and as absolute numbers too), while NS manages to have the smallest both percent and absolute, so staying very close to PS4 globally. This suggests NS could enjoy consistently high sales during all the Xmas period. PS4 can still beat it on the whole period, but XBOne, despite being very strong too, as usual, during BF and Xmas period, will probably be third, behind NS.
Anyhow, both adjustments and big weekly ups and downs can still happen, there's still quite a large margin of unpredictability.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


PS4 is killing



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


Curious to see next week, which is Smash week I think.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won