Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.
Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.
So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.
Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.
Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.
I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.
ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either.
Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing.
At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.
Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.
Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.