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So on twitter theres no lots of people posting pics of empty shelves in the UK supermarkets...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15401760/supermarket-shelves-could-be-empty-in-weeks-brexit-covid/
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/business/bebusiness/19393504.brits-warned-inevitable-food-shortage-uk-supermarkets/?ref=twtrec




https://twitter.com/Gavarnos/status/1409545270287798274/photo/1

https://twitter.com/Gavarnos/status/1409545373346054146/photo/1

https://twitter.com/MariaMo32975161/status/1409549597979123718/photo/1





















Apparently when you ask like 1-1,5m people to leave your country, and you end up missing like 100,000+ truck drivers (lorries), food doesnt get delivered.
Stuff goes rotten and gets tossed out ect, instead. Shelves go empty in supermarkets.

Wonder if stuff like this will make any impact on brexit voters.



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Time for a Update:
UK transition periode ended 31st december 2020.
So its been out of the EU, 8months or so, so I figur its time for a update and a look at how things are going so far.


Food Shortages:
People know the UK imports (their numbers) abit over 50% of its food stuff, from around the world (mainly europe).
What most probably dont know, is that if you make something eddible in the UK, even if all the ingredients are sourced from say EU, they count it as made in the UK. This means in reality food imports are over 80%. Basically UK only produce enough food to feed 2/10 Brits, and the other 8/10th's are gotten from trade.

Brexit happend, and suddenly theres paperwork, trucks dont carry loads both ways (half as effecient, requires more trucks), and something like 20,000 EU truck drivers left.
Ontop of that, there was Covid19, and lockdowns, and the UK couldnt train new truck drivers for a year or more, and with the ageing truckdrivers retireing, the need grew ever larger. Its estimated the UK needs roughly 110,000 truck drivers (HGV drivers). Once they get them, you should stop seeing shortages in stores.

However the UK isnt putting in solutions forwards, for "here and now" fix's to it.
They plan on increaseing the work hours of truck drivers (comes at the cost of safety, on roads), and education/training shorting of drivers (less checked/skilled drivers).
They said this should "fix itself" over a 2year periode, as more HGV drivers are certified. So food shortages may last a year or two more, until it goes away.

Dont believe it? Go on twitter and search for the #BrexitFoodShortages
(daily pics from local supermarkets in the UK, taken by people at their stores, when they notice it, will pop up)

Experts say its going to get worse, before it gets better.
(ei. its not hit rock bottom yet, and started to level out, worse is yet to come)

Fun stuff:

September 2019: "there will be no shortages of fresh food" (after brexit) - Michael Gove
September 2021: Michael Gove is put in charge of fixing the food supply chain broken by Brexit.




Imports and Exports to Europe (July 2020 - July 2021 ):
Eurostat numbers: Exports from UK to EU, fell by 17,1%. Imports to UK from EU, grew by 6,2%.

UK is offputting its "take back controll" slogan, and leaveing its boarders open to goods from EU without any checks (they dont want to make food shortages worse). The same is not true the otherway around. EU is controlling its borders, and doing checks ect, required to protect the single market.
The result, is EU companys are tradeing on a advatage into the UK market, while the same isnt true the otherway around, hurting UK based companies (and UK missing out on tax).

Source(proof) = https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/11563275/6-16092021-AP-EN.pdf/f2d5fabe-4988-ecd5-61d3-45fd2497acff


Gas/Elecrisity Prices go up:

2 things happend:
1) UK left the "EU's internal energy market" (it helps, keep prices down, avoid tarifs (on elecrisity/gas) ect)
2) A pipe/cable caught fire.

Why does this matter?
UK imports 5-10% of its electrisity from the EU, and 35-40% of its gas from the EU.
Over 50% of the UKs production of electristy is dependent on gas.

Shortage of it = harder to produce electrisity. Prices go up on gas, it effects electristy prices.

Now theres a periode of high demand for gas, globally, so prices have gone up abit, everywhere.
However remember that pipeline/kable I mention, that caught fire? its one of the reasons its worse in the UK.
It passes through France and goes to the Uk. The UK just royally p*ssed off the french, by backstabbing them, in a defense alliance with australia.
(those contracts for submerines, which is a smaller part, than the fact that 3 members sidelined a 4th member in a defense allience for years plotting byhinde its back)

So gas/electristy prices are high, and likely to stay that way in the UK for the forseeable future.

How bad can that be (how high are those prices)?

Well apparently the euro/MWh is roughly 3 times as high in the UK, as in most european countries atm.



Gas supply issues (CO2) (packageing meats/killing the animals)

Apparently, its a by-product, usually gotten from makeing fertilizer.
However, if your lacking chemicals, or demand/production of it is low, it effects how much CO2 you end up with.
With fruit/veg left to rot in fields, because of lack of workers to pick it..... farmers are not planning to seed as much for next year.
And they wont require as much fertilizer, and thus production is down.

Why does this matter?

Well apparently its used in all manner of things, from hospitals and surgeries, to packageing with chicken/pork, even to kill smaller animals.
So supermarkets might have less chicken/pork, if they dont have CO2, for the parketing part (as I understand it).
Now, theres already been issues with big producers of Turkey's in the UK, saying "Christmas is cancelled!"
(implying there wont be many turkey's come christmas in the UK):

Imagine come december you walk into a super market, and theres no turkey, no pork, no chicken, and barely any fresh fruit & vegs.?
(ontop of all the other stuff, running out)

Summery:
Inflation 3.2%+
Food prices gone up (alot of empty shelves).
Fuel prices gone up.
Gas(heating) and electrisity prices gone up.
Lack of fruit/veg pickers (from europe workers) ment it's left to rot in fields, in the UK.
Lack of butcher's (from european workers), means so far more than 100,000 pigs are heading for distruction (burning).
Lack of Lorry drivers (HGV).

Boris raised tax's by 1.25% to pay for NHS.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 21 September 2021

So a few days ago:
"No fuel shortage", says transport secretary Grant Shapps.
"There is plenty of petrol in the country" - Grant Shapps (a few days ago).

First it was, most forecourts (gas stations) where abit low, but then 5-10 or so went dry.
They release a statement asking people not to panic, theres enough petrol, its just transporting it (Drivers) is proveing a issue.
What happends? People notice, panic, and go out to fill up their cars (because, you need your car to get to work ect right?)
A day goes by and now its 100-200 forecourts, going empty.
Again, more "please dont panic buy!" and rationing for normal cars is put in place (max 30£ fill up pr car).

A few days more, and now its "between 50% and 90%" of its members' forecourts are dry." - Petrol Retailers Association.
Reality is, alot of people cant find fuel now (ei. probably closer to 90%, than they let on).



A true problem of Brexit is that UK hasn't been able to replace EU market with something of comparable size.
But these shortages also show that a big benefit of remaining in the EU was being able to hire underpaid and overexploited truck drivers and day labourers aplenty. Probably good PR for those that like the most ruthless capitalism, but not so good for anybody else.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:

A true problem of Brexit is that UK hasn't been able to replace EU market with something of comparable size.
But these shortages also show that a big benefit of remaining in the EU was being able to hire underpaid and overexploited truck drivers and day labourers aplenty. Probably good PR for those that like the most ruthless capitalism, but not so good for anybody else.

Eu tradeing block is the biggest in the world, and with the ties it has to trade to others.
There is no "something other of equal comparable size".

Also there is "gravity" to trade.
It doesnt make sense to trade half ways accross the world, if you dont need too.
Ei. proximity is a big thing.


"But these shortages also show that a big benefit of remaining in the EU was being able to hire underpaid and overexploited truck drivers and day labourers aplenty."

tbh UK has worse working conditions / pay for HGV drivers than most european countries (alot of countries in the EU, theres easy parking, rest stops with toliets/showers, ect ect). Apparently theres lack of HGV drivers in europe too, so it was odd that you could get away with it in the UK.


It also shows:

UK did nothing in the 5 years since the leave vote.
You knew this was going to be a problem (HGV drivers), but no one thought ahead to try and fix it, before it became a issue.



"Probably good PR for those that like the most ruthless capitalism, but not so good for anybody else."

Ruthless capitalism?
1) UK has modern day slavery, in numbers shocking to rest of europe.

2) Also, to fix this HGV driver issue (only until christmas, because Boris Johnson, wants a marketing PR slogan, of "saveing christmas"), your asking for 5000 to come on 3 month visa, to help fix the issue.  It takes 1-2 months of training (if you dont have the licence), so its 1 month, and then on christmas day, you get kicked out of the country.

3) Your cutting universal credits by £20 at a time, when gas/heating prices are skyrocketing, food prices are climbing, inflation is up, tax increase.....
300,000 children live in homes that will go below the poverty line , after this cut, in the UK (total its more than half a million people).  Theres elderly saying they will have to choose between heating/food. Theres people (elderly) that will freeze to death this winter in the UK (higher numbers than normal).

Is that ruthless enough?

kicking people out that come to help, on christmas day? haveing children's homes fall into poverty, and letting elderly freeze to death?

*edit:
Johnson apparently has now extended the emergency visa scheme for HGV drivers, it will now run until March 2022.
Also from Monday, 100 military drivers with licences to drive these trucks, will start helping out.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 02 October 2021

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JRPGfan said:

So on twitter theres no lots of people posting pics of empty shelves in the UK supermarkets...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15401760/supermarket-shelves-could-be-empty-in-weeks-brexit-covid/
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/business/bebusiness/19393504.brits-warned-inevitable-food-shortage-uk-supermarkets/?ref=twtrec





Apparently when you ask like 1-1,5m people to leave your country, and you end up missing like 100,000+ truck drivers (lorries), food doesnt get delivered.
Stuff goes rotten and gets tossed out ect, instead. Shelves go empty in supermarkets.

Wonder if stuff like this will make any impact on brexit voters.

Now that it's also affecting fuel and heating, I think it starts to sink in to at least some of the more hardline voters.



JRPGfan said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

A true problem of Brexit is that UK hasn't been able to replace EU market with something of comparable size.
But these shortages also show that a big benefit of remaining in the EU was being able to hire underpaid and overexploited truck drivers and day labourers aplenty. Probably good PR for those that like the most ruthless capitalism, but not so good for anybody else.

Eu tradeing block is the biggest in the world, and with the ties it has to trade to others.
There is no "something other of equal comparable size".

Also there is "gravity" to trade.
It doesnt make sense to trade half ways accross the world, if you dont need too.
Ei. proximity is a big thing.


"But these shortages also show that a big benefit of remaining in the EU was being able to hire underpaid and overexploited truck drivers and day labourers aplenty."

tbh UK has worse working conditions / pay for HGV drivers than most european countries (alot of countries in the EU, theres easy parking, rest stops with toliets/showers, ect ect). Apparently theres lack of HGV drivers in europe too, so it was odd that you could get away with it in the UK.


It also shows:

UK did nothing in the 5 years since the leave vote.
You knew this was going to be a problem (HGV drivers), but no one thought ahead to try and fix it, before it became a issue.



"Probably good PR for those that like the most ruthless capitalism, but not so good for anybody else."

Ruthless capitalism?
1) UK has modern day slavery, in numbers shocking to rest of europe.

2) Also, to fix this HGV driver issue (only until christmas, because Boris Johnson, wants a marketing PR slogan, of "saveing christmas"), your asking for 5000 to come on 3 month visa, to help fix the issue.  It takes 1-2 months of training (if you dont have the licence), so its 1 month, and then on christmas day, you get kicked out of the country.

3) Your cutting universal credits by £20 at a time, when gas/heating prices are skyrocketing, food prices are climbing, inflation is up, tax increase.....
300,000 children live in homes that will go below the poverty line , after this cut, in the UK (total its more than half a million people).  Theres elderly saying they will have to choose between heating/food. Theres people (elderly) that will freeze to death this winter in the UK (higher numbers than normal).

Is that ruthless enough?

kicking people out that come to help, on christmas day? haveing children's homes fall into poverty, and letting elderly freeze to death?

*edit:
Johnson apparently has now extended the emergency visa scheme for HGV drivers, it will now run until March 2022.
Also from Monday, 100 military drivers with licences to drive these trucks, will start helping out.

I know that UK can be ruthless, but as bad as it can be for some categories, it looks like staying in the EU allowed it to import workers willing to accept even worse conditions.
Surely UK managed Brexit in the worst possible way and these are the results, anyhow for this UK should mostly blame those that came before Johnson.
About truckers, I wouldn't be surprised if Boris will have to offer even longer VISAs and better conditions. Most probably he already knows it, but he needs the majority of brits to ask for new measures before proposing them, he just doesn't want to get crushed and burned between brexiters and no-brexiters.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Michael Lambert - Why Brexit is a Disaster and How Things are About to Get Very Much Worse:

I think this summarizes well how brexit, in its first year (out of the grace periode), has unfolded.
Well worth a watch.



So its been a few months.... again, time for a update.
2021 came and went, and now we have numbers (for trade, for the year).


Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound
https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-5853-4111-9600-ab5f0eb65a35

"Britain’s 14 per cent fall in goods exports stands in contrast to 8.2 per cent rise for rest of world"



UK goods exports have underperformed the rest of the world in what experts said was a sign that Brexit might be limiting the country’s trade performance.

The volume of UK goods exports fell 14 per cent in the three months to January compared with the same period in 2020, before the pandemic, according to the world trade monitor published on Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, known as the CPB. This was in stark contrast to the global average of an 8.2 per cent rise over the same period.

The data, which incorporates Office for National Statistics data for the UK, also showed that Britain compared poorly with the performance of all advanced countries where goods exports rose 5 per cent.

The analysis also showed that the UK was underperforming over the long term as it was the only country tracked by the CPB where goods exports remained below the 2010 average.

“While most other advanced economies have seen a strong recovery in trade, UK exports remain below pre-pandemic levels,” said Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London.

The OBR noted that “none of the new free trade agreements or other regulatory changes announced so far would be sufficient” to have a material impact on its forecasts for UK trade. It has estimated that leaving the EU would result in the total UK imports and exports being 15 per cent lower than if Britain had remained part of the EU.


^ note its currently more like a 20% dip compaired to the other advanced economies in europe. Ei. Worse than their own 15% prediction.

also as a commentator on FT noted:

"Oh, and don't mention the UK, barely tracking the Eurozone in terms of GDP growth... by spending insane amounts of borrowed money:

14.9% budget deficit in 2020
12.7% budget deficit in 2021

(below 7% avg in the Eurozone both years by way of comparison)"

^ fair enough, pandemics are hard to predict and handle.

Thoughts?

ofc, its to be expected, when you put up trade barriers (leaveing the single market), you get less trade.
I wonder what numbers about 2022 will say, come 2023.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 27 March 2022