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Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.

1. Would Ireland setting up their own "import controls" mean breaking the GFA or exiting the EU single market ?

@Bold Won't matter if Ireland won't enforce a hard border with Northern Ireland ... (as long as there's no hard border in place the UK will be content to smuggle as much as they want inside of Ireland and at large the EU)

Are you implying that the EU will prepare for customs checks between Ireland and the EU ? If so then Ireland will NOT be within the EU customs union anymore and by extension the single market as well since there WILL be barriers to trade between the EU and Ireland since the latter has NO CUSTOMS CHECKS with the former ... (having customs checks between a "supposedly common territory" defeats the idea of a customs 'union')

As for article 21, the EU has absolutely no jurisdiction over Ireland to enforce a hard border so it becomes an agreement between Ireland and the UK and the EU can't do ANYTHING in the instance of no deal. Given that Ireland isn't keen on having a border with Northern Ireland they'll apply for the exemption as stated in article 21 just like the UK ...  

Is it really something to laugh about ? Especially when both France and Italy could face floodgates of cheaper produce imports from the UK ? The EU doesn't seem to think it's all that funny given their demands over a hard border in the event of no deal ... (I wonder what also happens if Ireland isn't going to give into EU demands) 

As far as food is concerned, supply would be vastly enhanced since buying outside of the EU without tariffs are far cheaper and with less regulations. Hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken, and GMOs FTW! (Again benefits of not accepting the EU's ridiculous standards) Even with subsidies which is a lie since the UK feels far less benefits from CAP so most the funds goes to either France, Germany or Spain and even Italy benefits more from it than the UK but EU produce is still expensive as shit! EU food is overpriced but since Britain is stuck in a customs union where EU regulates that you can't have good shit like hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken or GMOs so they're stuck with their stupidity and have no other options. The UK doesn't need to stockpile on anything really since the Irish border is open so what it needs are free trade agreements with other countries! It's not all about the tariff rates, it's more about the non-tariff barriers like regulations and refusing to use advanced American/Canadian methods to agriculture highly distorts market pricing. Americans or Canadians (this one has far shorter growing seasons compared to the EU) can enjoy the fact that they pay so little for such big portions since those guys are allowed to waste food like no tomorrow ... 

@Underlined Having ANY physical infrastructure would break the GFA so the EU can't demand this unless either Ireland caves in and decides to unilaterally violate the GFA to meet EU customs standards or Ireland is dropped out of the EU customs union itself for the EU to be able to effectively stop the smuggling ... 

I mean you can think that the UK will have it's cake and eat it too but it DOES lose something in the process with no deal like temporary stability. However, it's Ireland that stands to lose the most in all of this since Brexit will be a bigger blow to them and the EU WILL crack down on the smuggling from Ireland! What Ireland is doing is very dangerous to the EU's single market since the UK could use it's import and backdoor advantage to abuse a loophole so Ireland could end up getting kicked out of the customs union all in the name to arrogantly keep both wealth (customs union) and pride (reunification) all in the name of the so called *solidarity* to tolerate smuggling but if the EU decides to pull out Ireland from the customs union it could make Northern Ireland a lot less attracted to the idea of reunification with a poorer nation ... (even after no deal, Ireland isn't out of the woods yet)

The UK doing no deal might be dumb but DON'T think for a moment what Ireland is doing isn't dumb either and if they're going to be bitter about it until the end we'll see just how long they can maintain without single market access ... (it's just the simple reality that the EU won't tolerate goods coming from Ireland without checking and applying tariffs to it) 

Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

LMAO @TLDRNews, that source could not anymore biased ... (the guy behind it hardly ever gives the upsides of Brexit or let alone no deal) 



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fatslob-:O said:
Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

did you honestly spend 1 hour writing this post? because I edited mine 1h ago (a mere 5mins after I initially posted it), as I noticed my own mistake there



Everyone talks about the danger of leaving the EU while forgetting one very important aspect.
What's the danger of staying in?
In France Marie Le Pen is fast gaining a lot more support and is considered the biggest treat to Emmanuel Macron ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-13/france-s-le-pen-starts-eu-campaign-promising-win-for-patriots ). If she wins the next election France is highly likely to leave the EU, and if France leaves it's game over for the EU, it's finished.
You can also point to Italy. What they are doing is seen by many as even more damaging than Brexit to the EU ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-22/the-eu-is-more-worried-about-italy-than-brexit ). If Italy keep making their own rules, why should other EU states follow the rules?
Well it turns out other country's like Poland already are ignoring certain rules ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-nationalism-special-report/special-report-why-poland-fell-out-of-step-with-europe-idUSKCN1MS1M3 ).
You could also point to the huge Economic problems of Greece, Spain, Ireland and others to see where the next wave of populism is likely to crop up.

If you ask me, the EU is not in good shape at all and collapse is looking more likely every year.
The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

100,000 jobs at risk in Germany from 'no deal' Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/10/100000-jobs-risk-germany-no-deal-brexit/



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.

1. Would Ireland setting up their own "import controls" mean breaking the GFA or exiting the EU single market ?

@Bold Won't matter if Ireland won't enforce a hard border with Northern Ireland ... (as long as there's no hard border in place the UK will be content to smuggle as much as they want inside of Ireland and at large the EU)

Are you implying that the EU will prepare for customs checks between Ireland and the EU ? If so then Ireland will NOT be within the EU customs union anymore and by extension the single market as well since there WILL be barriers to trade between the EU and Ireland since the latter has NO CUSTOMS CHECKS with the former ... (having customs checks between a "supposedly common territory" defeats the idea of a customs 'union')

As for article 21, the EU has absolutely no jurisdiction over Ireland to enforce a hard border so it becomes an agreement between Ireland and the UK and the EU can't do ANYTHING in the instance of no deal. Given that Ireland isn't keen on having a border with Northern Ireland they'll apply for the exemption as stated in article 21 just like the UK ...  

Is it really something to laugh about ? Especially when both France and Italy could face floodgates of cheaper produce imports from the UK ? The EU doesn't seem to think it's all that funny given their demands over a hard border in the event of no deal ... (I wonder what also happens if Ireland isn't going to give into EU demands) 

As far as food is concerned, supply would be vastly enhanced since buying outside of the EU without tariffs are far cheaper and with less regulations. Hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken, and GMOs FTW! (Again benefits of not accepting the EU's ridiculous standards) Even with subsidies which is a lie since the UK feels far less benefits from CAP so most the funds goes to either France, Germany or Spain and even Italy benefits more from it than the UK but EU produce is still expensive as shit! EU food is overpriced but since Britain is stuck in a customs union where EU regulates that you can't have good shit like hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken or GMOs so they're stuck with their stupidity and have no other options. The UK doesn't need to stockpile on anything really since the Irish border is open so what it needs are free trade agreements with other countries! It's not all about the tariff rates, it's more about the non-tariff barriers like regulations and refusing to use advanced American/Canadian methods to agriculture highly distorts market pricing. Americans or Canadians (this one has far shorter growing seasons compared to the EU) can enjoy the fact that they pay so little for such big portions since those guys are allowed to waste food like no tomorrow ... 

@Underlined Having ANY physical infrastructure would break the GFA so the EU can't demand this unless either Ireland caves in and decides to unilaterally violate the GFA to meet EU customs standards or Ireland is dropped out of the EU customs union itself for the EU to be able to effectively stop the smuggling ... 

I mean you can think that the UK will have it's cake and eat it too but it DOES lose something in the process with no deal like temporary stability. However, it's Ireland that stands to lose the most in all of this since Brexit will be a bigger blow to them and the EU WILL crack down on the smuggling from Ireland! What Ireland is doing is very dangerous to the EU's single market since the UK could use it's import and backdoor advantage to abuse a loophole so Ireland could end up getting kicked out of the customs union all in the name to arrogantly keep both wealth (customs union) and pride (reunification) all in the name of the so called *solidarity* to tolerate smuggling but if the EU decides to pull out Ireland from the customs union it could make Northern Ireland a lot less attracted to the idea of reunification with a poorer nation ... (even after no deal, Ireland isn't out of the woods yet)

The UK doing no deal might be dumb but DON'T think for a moment what Ireland is doing isn't dumb either and if they're going to be bitter about it until the end we'll see just how long they can maintain without single market access ... (it's just the simple reality that the EU won't tolerate goods coming from Ireland without checking and applying tariffs to it) 

Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

LMAO @TLDRNews, that source could not anymore biased ... (the guy behind it hardly ever gives the upsides of Brexit or let alone no deal) 

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.



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only777 said:
Everyone talks about the danger of leaving the EU while forgetting one very important aspect.
What's the danger of staying in?
In France Marie Le Pen is fast gaining a lot more support and is considered the biggest treat to Emmanuel Macron ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-13/france-s-le-pen-starts-eu-campaign-promising-win-for-patriots ). If she wins the next election France is highly likely to leave the EU, and if France leaves it's game over for the EU, it's finished.
You can also point to Italy. What they are doing is seen by many as even more damaging than Brexit to the EU ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-22/the-eu-is-more-worried-about-italy-than-brexit ). If Italy keep making their own rules, why should other EU states follow the rules?
Well it turns out other country's like Poland already are ignoring certain rules ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-nationalism-special-report/special-report-why-poland-fell-out-of-step-with-europe-idUSKCN1MS1M3 ).
You could also point to the huge Economic problems of Greece, Spain, Ireland and others to see where the next wave of populism is likely to crop up.

If you ask me, the EU is not in good shape at all and collapse is looking more likely every year.
The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.

Why is the danger of an EU collapse an argument for leaving the EU? It's like preventing dying from cancer by committing suicide.

Let's pretend Germany would leave the EU because of the danger of a EU collapse. Not only would Germany face massive economic repercussions but likelihood of an EU collapse is much higher too. The EU is the largest economic area in the world, a collapse would lead to an avalanche that would negatively affect every country on this earth.

Working towards a scenario where everyone loses but you may lose the least(that's not even for sure) is not very intelligent.



LurkerJ said:
100,000 jobs at risk in Germany from 'no deal' Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/10/100000-jobs-risk-germany-no-deal-brexit/

and the UK will probably lose like 5 times as many..... what is your point?

Not to mention that Germany also "gained" new jobs, because of company's moveing out from the UK, and setting up base in other EU countries.
UK is gonna suffer alot more than the EU does, in the event of a no deal brexit.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 10 February 2019

LurkerJ said:
100,000 jobs at risk in Germany from 'no deal' Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/10/100000-jobs-risk-germany-no-deal-brexit/

What's your point? no deal Brexit will be bad for Germany and the other EU members, hell Brexit is no matter how bad for Germany and the other EU members, that's the reason none of them wants brexit.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.

@Bold LOL so Ireland is going to break the GFA ? 

Are you sure the UK won't smuggle if Ireland decides to keep the GFA alive ? LMAO, the UK would have plenty to smuggle inside Ireland/EU cause they could just lower import controls to the lowest bidder without a say from the EU and then resell at a markup to crash the EU market. It's too bad for you that those same "international rules" have perfectly good loopholes in them (both Ireland and the UK applying for article 21) so either the EU's going to have to implement customs checks with Ireland if their too stubborn to apply contraband protocols and BTW, the WTO is toothless for most part ... (there are no rules or laws when it comes to the international stage because there's no global body that can compel a sovereign nation what to do and North Korea is a perfect example of that) 

As for your second paragraph what did you not understand when I reiterated that the "UK DOES NOT have to apply tariffs or regulations" ? If the UK decides to unilaterally cut tariffs then it's their FULLY SOVEREIGN RIGHT to make a decision what comes either in or out of their own state because nobody else has a say and arguing otherwise is delusional. Even with zero tariff's, produce from the EU is still expensive as shit so I'll say this much in that THE EU DOES NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC MONOPOLY ON PRODUCE like the middle east does with their low cost extraction of fossil fuels! The UK will find other desperate (competing poor nations) suppliers to get the best value so WTF does the EU have to offer to keep the British people in the shitty ass single market ? Aerospace ? (Boeing shits on Airbus) Cheap fossil fuels ? (the EU serves as Russia or Saudi Arabia's bitch) Digital technology ? (the EU get's it's ass kicked thoroughly by America and East Asia in this category) Pharmaceutics/Biotechnology ? (with the UK not in the EU's picture it will soon fall further behind the US in terms of leading edge health treatment options) The UK will start determining for itself what is *acceptable* so don't worry about what they'll find to be edible but the EU on the other hand has to get it's shit together because the three great pillars to having a stable and prosperous civilization is having technological independence, resource independence, and human capital (both China and the US share this view strongly so their results speak for themselves), however the EU lacks in all three of them in their blind pursuit of modern day liberalism over pragmatism. The EU must learn to discriminate against outside nations and their own member states as well in order to maintain the integrity of more powerful states within it so needs to forgo solidarity in favour of EU membership on a tiered basis where richer nations can be more happy so a vote from Greece, Italy or Portugal shouldn't be as good as the one from the UK. What will the EU do once it finds that Italy is in deep shit with debt if the UK isn't there to help the EU anymore and France still has soured relations to not bail them out ? 

The EU will absolutely have to do something about Ireland if it insists that it isn't going to do customs checks with goods coming from Northern Ireland especially if they see them dumping in chinese goods. With the GFA in place, no other side of the party shall place barriers between the bordering states so the only other way to realistically stop smuggling is if Ireland destroys their own roads leading to and from Northern Ireland but this means that the EU can't smuggle shit inside the UK either this way if the roads are broken. However, this might not stop smuggling entirely since airports, seaports, and train stations don't have ways to institute effective travelling impediments but most of all no customs checks are possible in that scenario either so neither the UK or Ireland can seize those goods in those instances. (safety checks also might not be possible either under the CTA) There's no way out for Ireland other than them to create their own border with the EU which would effectively mean cutting themselves off the single market. As for Northern Ireland, fat chance there's going to be a border poll in the near future since only Sinn Fein wants one and the Northern Ireland Secretary of State keeps insisting that conditions for one has not been met yet. That being said, I look forward to how long the EU will tolerate allowing Ireland letting the UK stab them in the back LEL ...

For Ireland it's a race between losing the single market then falling into disrepair or meeting the conditions for a border poll in Northern Ireland so it'll be quite a while before reunification is on the table if it even sees a chance ... 

And TLDR News does not give all the upsides to Brexit. For one he has yet to acknowledge that in the possibility no deal, imports become cheaper because of lower tariffs/regulations compared to the EU and by extension using this advantage to smuggle these goods through the open Irish border. Another possible upside of no deal is if Ireland decides to break the GFA then the UK get's to keep Northern Ireland FOREVER without another border poll ... (it's clear that the UK will NOT come empty handed with no deal so I'd be interested if somebody actually raised up these possibilities to him to see just how heavy his bias may be) 

Three highly likely possibilities after no deal:

#1 Ireland break the GFA (UK keeps Northern Ireland for good) 

#2 Ireland is ISOLATED from the EU customs union as a result of concerns of contraband reaching the market (does not take reunification entirely off the table but just makes it less likely so it's the middle ground option) 

#3 EU tolerates dumping of cheap imports from the backdoor (UK get's richer as a result of de facto access to the single market without having to pay cost of EU membership and import expensive EU goods AKA the worst outcome for EU)

I'm sure you realize it by now that the EU has NO OTHER OPTION than to make ABSOLUTE SURE that it protects it's single market by getting customs checks SOMEWHERE EVEN IF THE UK DOESN'T COOPERATE! (if that means between the EU and Ireland then so be it) 



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.

@Bold LOL so Ireland is going to break the GFA ? 

Are you sure the UK won't smuggle if Ireland decides to keep the GFA alive ? LMAO, the UK would have plenty to smuggle inside Ireland/EU cause they could just lower import controls to the lowest bidder without a say from the EU and then resell at a markup to crash the EU market. It's too bad for you that those same "international rules" have perfectly good loopholes in them (both Ireland and the UK applying for article 21) so either the EU's going to have to implement customs checks with Ireland if their too stubborn to apply contraband protocols and BTW, the WTO is toothless for most part ... (there are no rules or laws when it comes to the international stage because there's no global body that can compel a sovereign nation what to do and North Korea is a perfect example of that) 

As for your second paragraph what did you not understand when I reiterated that the "UK DOES NOT have to apply tariffs or regulations" ? If the UK decides to unilaterally cut tariffs then it's their FULLY SOVEREIGN RIGHT to make a decision what comes either in or out of their own state because nobody else has a say and arguing otherwise is delusional. Even with zero tariff's, produce from the EU is still expensive as shit so I'll say this much in that THE EU DOES NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC MONOPOLY ON PRODUCE like the middle east does with their low cost extraction of fossil fuels! The UK will find other desperate (competing poor nations) suppliers to get the best value so WTF does the EU have to offer to keep the British people in the shitty ass single market ? Aerospace ? (Boeing shits on Airbus) Cheap fossil fuels ? (the EU serves as Russia or Saudi Arabia's bitch) Digital technology ? (the EU get's it's ass kicked thoroughly by America and East Asia in this category) Pharmaceutics/Biotechnology ? (with the UK not in the EU's picture it will soon fall further behind the US in terms of leading edge health treatment options) The UK will start determining for itself what is *acceptable* so don't worry about what they'll find to be edible but the EU on the other hand has to get it's shit together because the three great pillars to having a stable and prosperous civilization is having technological independence, resource independence, and human capital (both China and the US share this view strongly so their results speak for themselves), however the EU lacks in all three of them in their blind pursuit of modern day liberalism over pragmatism. The EU must learn to discriminate against outside nations and their own member states as well in order to maintain the integrity of more powerful states within it so needs to forgo solidarity in favour of EU membership on a tiered basis where richer nations can be more happy so a vote from Greece, Italy or Portugal shouldn't be as good as the one from the UK. What will the EU do once it finds that Italy is in deep shit with debt if the UK isn't there to help the EU anymore and France still has soured relations to not bail them out ? 

The EU will absolutely have to do something about Ireland if it insists that it isn't going to do customs checks with goods coming from Northern Ireland especially if they see them dumping in chinese goods. With the GFA in place, no other side of the party shall place barriers between the bordering states so the only other way to realistically stop smuggling is if Ireland destroys their own roads leading to and from Northern Ireland but this means that the EU can't smuggle shit inside the UK either this way if the roads are broken. However, this might not stop smuggling entirely since airports, seaports, and train stations don't have ways to institute effective travelling impediments but most of all no customs checks are possible in that scenario either so neither the UK or Ireland can seize those goods in those instances. (safety checks also might not be possible either under the CTA) There's no way out for Ireland other than them to create their own border with the EU which would effectively mean cutting themselves off the single market. As for Northern Ireland, fat chance there's going to be a border poll in the near future since only Sinn Fein wants one and the Northern Ireland Secretary of State keeps insisting that conditions for one has not been met yet. That being said, I look forward to how long the EU will tolerate allowing Ireland letting the UK stab them in the back LEL ...

For Ireland it's a race between losing the single market then falling into disrepair or meeting the conditions for a border poll in Northern Ireland so it'll be quite a while before reunification is on the table if it even sees a chance ... 

And TLDR News does not give all the upsides to Brexit. For one he has yet to acknowledge that in the possibility no deal, imports become cheaper because of lower tariffs/regulations compared to the EU and by extension using this advantage to smuggle these goods through the open Irish border. Another possible upside of no deal is if Ireland decides to break the GFA then the UK get's to keep Northern Ireland FOREVER without another border poll ... (it's clear that the UK will NOT come empty handed with no deal so I'd be interested if somebody actually raised up these possibilities to him to see just how heavy his bias may be) 

Three highly likely possibilities after no deal:

#1 Ireland break the GFA (UK keeps Northern Ireland for good) 

#2 Ireland is ISOLATED from the EU customs union as a result of concerns of contraband reaching the market (does not take reunification entirely off the table but just makes it less likely so it's the middle ground option) 

#3 EU tolerates dumping of cheap imports from the backdoor (UK get's richer as a result of de facto access to the single market without having to pay cost of EU membership and import expensive EU goods AKA the worst outcome for EU)

I'm sure you realize it by now that the EU has NO OTHER OPTION than to make ABSOLUTE SURE that it protects it's single market by getting customs checks SOMEWHERE EVEN IF THE UK DOESN'T COOPERATE! (if that means between the EU and Ireland then so be it) 

I can only shake my head in front of so much wrongness

1. Read again what I posted and linked. Ireland has every right under the GFA to close the borders as long as it's not getting remilitarized. Same goes for the UK btw. I bolded the part above too that you are very wrong about but insist on and build your entire thesis on.

2. No deal is already on the way for precipitating a vote in northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of Ireland again, as you can read in the link above.

3. UK already stated months ago that they will copy the EU schedules, which are the tariffs and quotas the EU applies to countries they have no trade deal with, and I quote:"In almost all cases, the UK simply took the tariffs in the EU's schedule and copy pasted it across with 'United Kingdom' at the top. In fact, it did not change the actual maximum tariff level on any lines (product types).". So in other words, no tariff- and quote-free trade with other countries. The UK could do that... but that would most probably come at the expense of pretty much everything that gets produced on the Island, so you can be certain industrials and agrarians would not accept that.

4. No, UK will not have access to the single market in any way with a hard brexit, get your facts right. Why do you think UK is planning parking zones for trucks to be controlled at the borders and why the EU is horing people and buying stuff at the 3 main points of entry fron the UK (Northern Ireland border, Calais and Rotterdam).

5. TLDR doesn't state the bolded because that's not a thing ffs! Also, you can be pretty damn sure every nation in the world would look down on the UK if they would even just try to smuggle and put an embargo on the Island until that practice ends. In fact, that's a surefire way to make Northern Ireland leave and reunify with Ireland out of protest, to say nothing about Scotland and potentially even Wales.

6. About the NI secretary of the State insisting conditions for a border poll not being met, just hours later the DUP sent out letters urging Unionists for voter registration "to save the Union", meaning they are well aware that a poll can happen very soon and was trying to downplay the vote and avoid Republicans to go register already to stack the chances against Northern Ireland reunion. So yeah, chances are you can kiss Northern Ireland goodbye after that vote now, and it will happen very soon.