Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.

@Bold LOL so Ireland is going to break the GFA ? 

Are you sure the UK won't smuggle if Ireland decides to keep the GFA alive ? LMAO, the UK would have plenty to smuggle inside Ireland/EU cause they could just lower import controls to the lowest bidder without a say from the EU and then resell at a markup to crash the EU market. It's too bad for you that those same "international rules" have perfectly good loopholes in them (both Ireland and the UK applying for article 21) so either the EU's going to have to implement customs checks with Ireland if their too stubborn to apply contraband protocols and BTW, the WTO is toothless for most part ... (there are no rules or laws when it comes to the international stage because there's no global body that can compel a sovereign nation what to do and North Korea is a perfect example of that) 

As for your second paragraph what did you not understand when I reiterated that the "UK DOES NOT have to apply tariffs or regulations" ? If the UK decides to unilaterally cut tariffs then it's their FULLY SOVEREIGN RIGHT to make a decision what comes either in or out of their own state because nobody else has a say and arguing otherwise is delusional. Even with zero tariff's, produce from the EU is still expensive as shit so I'll say this much in that THE EU DOES NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC MONOPOLY ON PRODUCE like the middle east does with their low cost extraction of fossil fuels! The UK will find other desperate (competing poor nations) suppliers to get the best value so WTF does the EU have to offer to keep the British people in the shitty ass single market ? Aerospace ? (Boeing shits on Airbus) Cheap fossil fuels ? (the EU serves as Russia or Saudi Arabia's bitch) Digital technology ? (the EU get's it's ass kicked thoroughly by America and East Asia in this category) Pharmaceutics/Biotechnology ? (with the UK not in the EU's picture it will soon fall further behind the US in terms of leading edge health treatment options) The UK will start determining for itself what is *acceptable* so don't worry about what they'll find to be edible but the EU on the other hand has to get it's shit together because the three great pillars to having a stable and prosperous civilization is having technological independence, resource independence, and human capital (both China and the US share this view strongly so their results speak for themselves), however the EU lacks in all three of them in their blind pursuit of modern day liberalism over pragmatism. The EU must learn to discriminate against outside nations and their own member states as well in order to maintain the integrity of more powerful states within it so needs to forgo solidarity in favour of EU membership on a tiered basis where richer nations can be more happy so a vote from Greece, Italy or Portugal shouldn't be as good as the one from the UK. What will the EU do once it finds that Italy is in deep shit with debt if the UK isn't there to help the EU anymore and France still has soured relations to not bail them out ? 

The EU will absolutely have to do something about Ireland if it insists that it isn't going to do customs checks with goods coming from Northern Ireland especially if they see them dumping in chinese goods. With the GFA in place, no other side of the party shall place barriers between the bordering states so the only other way to realistically stop smuggling is if Ireland destroys their own roads leading to and from Northern Ireland but this means that the EU can't smuggle shit inside the UK either this way if the roads are broken. However, this might not stop smuggling entirely since airports, seaports, and train stations don't have ways to institute effective travelling impediments but most of all no customs checks are possible in that scenario either so neither the UK or Ireland can seize those goods in those instances. (safety checks also might not be possible either under the CTA) There's no way out for Ireland other than them to create their own border with the EU which would effectively mean cutting themselves off the single market. As for Northern Ireland, fat chance there's going to be a border poll in the near future since only Sinn Fein wants one and the Northern Ireland Secretary of State keeps insisting that conditions for one has not been met yet. That being said, I look forward to how long the EU will tolerate allowing Ireland letting the UK stab them in the back LEL ...

For Ireland it's a race between losing the single market then falling into disrepair or meeting the conditions for a border poll in Northern Ireland so it'll be quite a while before reunification is on the table if it even sees a chance ... 

And TLDR News does not give all the upsides to Brexit. For one he has yet to acknowledge that in the possibility no deal, imports become cheaper because of lower tariffs/regulations compared to the EU and by extension using this advantage to smuggle these goods through the open Irish border. Another possible upside of no deal is if Ireland decides to break the GFA then the UK get's to keep Northern Ireland FOREVER without another border poll ... (it's clear that the UK will NOT come empty handed with no deal so I'd be interested if somebody actually raised up these possibilities to him to see just how heavy his bias may be) 

Three highly likely possibilities after no deal:

#1 Ireland break the GFA (UK keeps Northern Ireland for good) 

#2 Ireland is ISOLATED from the EU customs union as a result of concerns of contraband reaching the market (does not take reunification entirely off the table but just makes it less likely so it's the middle ground option) 

#3 EU tolerates dumping of cheap imports from the backdoor (UK get's richer as a result of de facto access to the single market without having to pay cost of EU membership and import expensive EU goods AKA the worst outcome for EU)

I'm sure you realize it by now that the EU has NO OTHER OPTION than to make ABSOLUTE SURE that it protects it's single market by getting customs checks SOMEWHERE EVEN IF THE UK DOESN'T COOPERATE! (if that means between the EU and Ireland then so be it) 

I can only shake my head in front of so much wrongness

1. Read again what I posted and linked. Ireland has every right under the GFA to close the borders as long as it's not getting remilitarized. Same goes for the UK btw. I bolded the part above too that you are very wrong about but insist on and build your entire thesis on.

2. No deal is already on the way for precipitating a vote in northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of Ireland again, as you can read in the link above.

3. UK already stated months ago that they will copy the EU schedules, which are the tariffs and quotas the EU applies to countries they have no trade deal with, and I quote:"In almost all cases, the UK simply took the tariffs in the EU's schedule and copy pasted it across with 'United Kingdom' at the top. In fact, it did not change the actual maximum tariff level on any lines (product types).". So in other words, no tariff- and quote-free trade with other countries. The UK could do that... but that would most probably come at the expense of pretty much everything that gets produced on the Island, so you can be certain industrials and agrarians would not accept that.

4. No, UK will not have access to the single market in any way with a hard brexit, get your facts right. Why do you think UK is planning parking zones for trucks to be controlled at the borders and why the EU is horing people and buying stuff at the 3 main points of entry fron the UK (Northern Ireland border, Calais and Rotterdam).

5. TLDR doesn't state the bolded because that's not a thing ffs! Also, you can be pretty damn sure every nation in the world would look down on the UK if they would even just try to smuggle and put an embargo on the Island until that practice ends. In fact, that's a surefire way to make Northern Ireland leave and reunify with Ireland out of protest, to say nothing about Scotland and potentially even Wales.

6. About the NI secretary of the State insisting conditions for a border poll not being met, just hours later the DUP sent out letters urging Unionists for voter registration "to save the Union", meaning they are well aware that a poll can happen very soon and was trying to downplay the vote and avoid Republicans to go register already to stack the chances against Northern Ireland reunion. So yeah, chances are you can kiss Northern Ireland goodbye after that vote now, and it will happen very soon.