Ok. This whole thing has played itself out.

I have changed my prediction twice not thrice. I never made an 85M+ prediction. But I will not continue indulging this either. Its ok. You guys win.

Feel free to disregard any prediction I have made about the switch. I'll take it a step further and not say anything switch related ever again on this site. For my own peace of mind cause apparently a low prediction for the switch results in all manner of drama. 

I know I'm kind of late to this discussion, and I haven't been able to peruse the back-and-forth on this topic, but I did want to add my two cents.

Third-party games have arguably not been a deciding factor since Nintendo stopped trying to directly compete with Sony & MS. First-party games are absolutely the backbone of Nintendo systems. They're the big attraction, the ones that put systems in people's hands. Looking at Wikipedia's list of best-selling 3DS games, they have 39 titles as million-plus sellers, totaling 206.8M copies sold. Of course, Wikipedia's best-sellers lists are rarely complete and up to date, so that's a bare minimum. Nintendo's official software shipment tally for the 3DS is 371M, meaning that based purely on official numbers cited on Wikipedia at least 55.7% of the 3DS's software sales are represented by only 39 titles. Here on VGC, the top 20 3DS games total about 194.5M copies, and they list the 3DS at 322.1M copies across all titles tracked. That's 60.4% of all software sales represented by just 40 games. And the list of Top 40 3DS games is totally dominated by Nintendo games. There's a smattering of Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch, and a couple of other titles, and that's it. The Top 200 games represent over 88% of all 3DS software sales, and Nintendo-published titles represent 74.5% of that Top 200. The software charts for the DS, Wii U, and (to a somewhat less extend) Wii were likewise dominated by Nintendo-published titles.

Now we're seeing the same thing with the Switch. Going by official figures, as of Sept. 30 there is only one game not published by Nintendo that has sold/shipped over a million copies, and that was a Ubisoft game that had Nintendo characters (the Mario + Rabbids game). The Top 10 Nintendo-published games on the system represent nearly half of all software sales. If we go by VGC numbers, just 40 titles represent almost 95% of all software sales on the system, and the 11 Nintendo-published games in the Top 40 represent 70% of all software sales.

This doesn't mean third-party titles are completely unimportant, but they are not the biggest draw. Nintendo games are the foundation of Nintendo systems. Third-party games just fill in the gaps. They're at best the between-meal snacks of Nintendo console libraries.

As for the PS5 and Xbox 4, they won't have an impact on the Switch because the release of one system in a given brand, even if it's a successful system, has had no effect on sales of consoles in another brand. For example, the PS4 and XBO had no impact on Wii U sales, the 360 had no impact on PS2 sales, and, despite Sega bragging that they did what "Nintendon't," the Genesis had no obvious effect on NES sales if shipment data is any indication. The console market is not an absolutely zero-sum game, especially in Nintendo's case as they're providing a considerably different experience with their systems than the more traditional console experiences provided by Sony & MS.

Yes, third parties are going to start putting their biggest and best games on the PS5 and Xbox 4 once those systems are released, but I'd argue that it doesn't matter. For starters, they're already doing that now. Very few major current-gen AAA titles released for the PS4 & XBO have also gotten a Switch release. So far we've had Doom, Wolfenstein II, Sonic Forces, and Dragon Ball FighterZ & Xenoverse 2, with Mortal Kombat 11 due out in April. That's about it. Every other third-party release on the Switch has been a re-release of a Gen 7 game (e.g., Skyrim), or an exclusive title made just for the Switch (e.g., Octopath Traveler), or a lower-budget title (e.g., Sonic Mania), or a sports game. The lack of major AAA multiplatform titles is already a problem.

Second, the lack of major AAA multiplats doesn't mean a lack of third-party support in general. As mentioned, there are still third-party titles being made for the Switch. A few are are exclusive, some are ports, remasters, or compilations of older games, and some are lower-budget affairs. I doubt that will change substantially once the PS5 and Xbox 4 are released. Even though the Switch will be over 3-½ years old at the time, there's still money to be made from it.

One thing before you go, you did give it a ~85 million prediction just a few posts ago, here is what you said:

Ok. My numbers. Sold to consumers

2017: 13M

2018: 15.6M

2019: 17M

2020: 14.4M

2021: 11.2M

2022: 8M

Total: 79.2M

No console in history has gone from 8 million in a year to not selling another few million after that.

Look at PS3 & 360, they sold 8.25m & 6.25m in 2013 (the year their successors released). From that point on they sold another 5.5m & 4m.

If Switch has an 8 million selling year in 2022 than it will almost certainly add another 5 million or so to its lifetime numbers.

Not going anywhere.... just not making switch predictions anymore. And I stand by what i aid about not making an 85M prediction. I didn't. I stopped at 79M. And I believe thats around when  replacement to the switch will be released..... (honestly I think it will happen sooner but thats a different story). Once it does though sales of the switch will grind t a halt. And this is because of how that "replacement" will be marketed. Again, thats another story. 

I personally believe that replacement will  come around 2021 and at that time the NS would have sold only like 71M.

Well like I just showed you consoles dont just disappear after the successor releases, sales decline but they dont just stop.

Look at those two examples I gave, PS3 & 360 sold 5.5 & 4 million in the years after PS4 & XBO released.

Even Wii which was known for having an extreme drop sold another 2.5 million in the years after Wii U released.

DS sold like 11 million after 3DS released.

PSP sold like 7 million after Vita released.

If Switch is at 79 million when its successor released it should sell very close to 85 million.

Also a 2021 release is only 4 years after Switch, does that really sound realistic to you?

Damn thats pretty awesome. So Switch NPD for November then, Dec should be interesting.