November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

zorg1000 said:

 

One thing before you go, you did give it a ~85 million prediction just a few posts ago, here is what you said:

Ok. My numbers. Sold to consumers

2017: 13M

2018: 15.6M

2019: 17M

2020: 14.4M

2021: 11.2M

2022: 8M

Total: 79.2M

 

No console in history has gone from 8 million in a year to not selling another few million after that.

Look at PS3 & 360, they sold 8.25m & 6.25m in 2013 (the year their successors released). From that point on they sold another 5.5m & 4m.

If Switch has an 8 million selling year in 2022 than it will almost certainly add another 5 million or so to its lifetime numbers.

Not going anywhere.... just not making switch predictions anymore. And I stand by what i aid about not making an 85M prediction. I didn't. I stopped at 79M. And I believe thats around when  replacement to the switch will be released..... (honestly I think it will happen sooner but thats a different story). Once it does though sales of the switch will grind t a halt. And this is because of how that "replacement" will be marketed. Again, thats another story. 

I personally believe that replacement will  come around 2021 and at that time the NS would have sold only like 71M.

Well like I just showed you consoles dont just disappear after the successor releases, sales decline but they dont just stop.

Look at those two examples I gave, PS3 & 360 sold 5.5 & 4 million in the years after PS4 & XBO released.

Even Wii which was known for having an extreme drop sold another 2.5 million in the years after Wii U released.

DS sold like 11 million after 3DS released.

PSP sold like 7 million after Vita released.

 

If Switch is at 79 million when its successor released it should sell very close to 85 million.

 

Also a 2021 release is only 4 years after Switch, does that really sound realistic to you?