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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

zorg1000 on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Let's also glance over the fact he straight up called me a liar but I'm somehow the one being abusive.

Saying you were lying was with regards to the notion that you had always been talking about shipped as opposed to sales numbers. You cleared that up, I admitted t not being aware f it and thus the resultant mix up.

A few of you have made me out to be some crazy person making totally outlandish predictions all simply because I said i expected the switch to sell around or not pass the 3DS and went on to elaborate putting that number at 75M to 80M. I am the same person that even mentioned my original lowball predictions and mentioned that I changed them in this same thread.

Lets not all pretend like this is just run off the mill debating here. Like I honestly can't believe someone predicting sales of 70M - 80M warrants all this..... those aren't even bad sales!!!!! 

And I implore you or the genius that sought out my post from before the console even released to prove that my prediction was lower than what it was now even after  I had already brought attention t that already to also find the numerous posts that I have made saying it would end up doing alot more. And yet somehow my credibility is put to question. 

The sad part about this is that its not like I am man any outlandish claim with n rhyme or reason. I actually put out god debatable points as to why I felt it wouldn't sell more than 80M. 

I know it was just a misunderstanding, the point im making is that he is displaying a double standard to say I'm being abusive but your previous comment wasnt (for the record I dont think either of us have crossed a line in our debate).

I also dont think your ~75 million prediction is terrible, the only major flaw that I have with it is that you believe Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years. If it does that and still manages to only sell ~75 million than it will have just about the sharpest decline in console history. That is why I keep asking for your yearly predictions because I want to know when and how you expect it to have such a massive decline after the 4th year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

 

zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.
And this below is from that same exact thread. Meaning I didn't even wait too long before I revised my original prediction. And guess what? again i was arguing with you abut even the right t change my prediction even after I stated my reasons why. From the same thread Pisonparidise quoted. Pity he didn't see this post too...... and yet this is all just simple debating lol.
Intrinsic said: 

Sigh.... ok.

I have tried to explain why... I have given you reasons and scenarios. At the end of the day, what I did I revise my original prediction. Now I have a new one. So maybe I should have said I stand by my reasoning and not my prediction if that somehow would have avoided all this being that I changed my prediction. 

So let me rephrase.... I stand by my reasoning but underestimated the value proposition that was $299 when making my earlier prediction. Now I have raised my prediction and I am making it clear that if nintendo gets that price down sooner rather than later and can get a good deal more third party support then that number is only bound to go up.

Better?

And nintendo revising their estimates.... actually thats even underselling it as in their case they would have had to change a lot to increase production ha everything to do with this. Cause as i said, if nintendo can make adjustments, why can't we? Especially when you consider that most of these predictions were made at a time when nintendo announced only 8M total shipments for the fiscal year..... extrapolate that and arriving at 40M doesn't seem that far fetched.

In that same thread, from a quote of myself that you typed out..... You can clearly see when I raised my prediction up and even then said I stand by my reasons but have revised it up. The same reasons I have been still talking about in this thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8714860

 

Now lets watch all of you who tried to ridicule me by taking a quote I made two years ago and just as immediately changed ignore all this now.

You are changing what we argued about back then, I never questioned your right to revise your prediction.

Here is the actual quote from that thread:

"Im not saying you arent allowed to change your prediction. That never once came out of my mouth.

Im saying changing your prediction by a large amount means you dont stand by it.

This is what you said, "I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime"

 

Again, i dont care that you changed your prediction. Im telling you what you said was a contradiction."

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 18 December 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 18 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

I know it was just a misunderstanding, the point im making is that he is displaying a double standard to say I'm being abusive but your previous comment wasnt (for the record I dont think either of us have crossed a line in our debate).

I also dont think your ~75 million prediction is terrible, the only major flaw that I have with it is that you believe Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years. If it does that and still manages to only sell ~75 million than it will have just about the sharpest decline in console history. That is why I keep asking for your yearly predictions because I want to know when and how you expect it to have such a massive decline after the 4th year.

Ok. My numbers. Sold to consumers

2017: 13M

2018: 15.6M

2019: 17M

2020: 14.4M

2021: 11.2M

2022: 8M

Total: 79.2M

Which results in being a couple million above the 3DS by the latest I expect to see a new switch.  



wombat123 on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
wombat123 said:

My opinion is that it's only acceptable to up your predictions if it isn't obvious that you're going to be wrong.

I was of the impression that admitting you will be wrong and upping your predictions is only acceptable when its obvious you will be wrong. As long as you admit it though.

I don't get what the issue here is though..... I made a prediction 3 months before the machine even was released.... changed it a year later. You guys are acting like I am the only one that did this. No one expected the switch to do this well back then. There were even predictions from people saying 25M - 75M.

And my reasons cited were price and lack of third parties. Those are the same reasons I am still holding onto till this day.

Personally, no.  If I low-balled the sales projections for a game/console and was proven wrong early on, I'd just stop while I was behind.  In hindsight though, I'd give you a mulligan for your initial Switch projection because, like you said, a lot of people (even longtime Nintendo fans) gave low numbers for it; plus, the only ones I'd be willing to take to task are the ones that made a spectacle about low-balling the Switch's sales potential early on (three of whom I can think of off-hand).  That being said, while a lot of people predicted low numbers for the Switch early on and then adjusted, I don't see a lot of those people putting a big spotlight on themselves by going on for 30+ pages defending their adjusted projections that still don't make much sense to a lot of Nintendo fans.



Intrinsic on 18 December 2018
wombat123 said:

Personally, no.  If I low-balled the sales projections for a game/console and was proven wrong early on, I'd just stop while I was behind.  In hindsight though, I'd give you a mulligan for your initial Switch projection because, like you said, a lot of people (even longtime Nintendo fans) gave low numbers for it; plus, the only ones I'd be willing to take to task are the ones that made a spectacle about low-balling the Switch's sales potential early on (three of whom I can think of off-hand).  That being said, while a lot of people predicted low numbers for the Switch early on and then adjusted, I don't see a lot of those people putting a big spotlight on themselves by going on for 30+ pages defending their adjusted projections that still don't make much sense to a lot of Nintendo fans.

Thats a new one.... so I put this "spotlight" on myself? 

I will agree with you though, I should have just ignored all the people that nicely asked me to shed some light on the reasons for my prediction.



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wombat123 on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
wombat123 said:

Personally, no.  If I low-balled the sales projections for a game/console and was proven wrong early on, I'd just stop while I was behind.  In hindsight though, I'd give you a mulligan for your initial Switch projection because, like you said, a lot of people (even longtime Nintendo fans) gave low numbers for it; plus, the only ones I'd be willing to take to task are the ones that made a spectacle about low-balling the Switch's sales potential early on (three of whom I can think of off-hand).  That being said, while a lot of people predicted low numbers for the Switch early on and then adjusted, I don't see a lot of those people putting a big spotlight on themselves by going on for 30+ pages defending their adjusted projections that still don't make much sense to a lot of Nintendo fans.

Thats a new one.... so I put this "spotlight" on myself? 

I will agree with you though, I should have just ignored all the people that nicely asked me to shed some light on the reasons for my prediction.

Well, let's put it this way: this thread is how I'll remember you from now on.  It's not a bad or good thing, it's just that this thread and '80m' will pop up in my head whenever I see you reply to something.  It's like how I remember tbone because of his Splatoon sales prediction and subsequent bold predictions or quickrick because of his negative Nintendo hot takes and how he would always dial them back whenever he felt like he was going to be wrong.

Last edited by wombat123 - on 18 December 2018

zorg1000 on 18 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I know it was just a misunderstanding, the point im making is that he is displaying a double standard to say I'm being abusive but your previous comment wasnt (for the record I dont think either of us have crossed a line in our debate).

I also dont think your ~75 million prediction is terrible, the only major flaw that I have with it is that you believe Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years. If it does that and still manages to only sell ~75 million than it will have just about the sharpest decline in console history. That is why I keep asking for your yearly predictions because I want to know when and how you expect it to have such a massive decline after the 4th year.

Ok. My numbers. Sold to consumers

2017: 13M

2018: 15.6M

2019: 17M

2020: 14.4M

2021: 11.2M

2022: 8M

Total: 79.2M

Which results in being a couple million above the 3DS by the latest I expect to see a new switch.  

Thank you. Do you now see where the confusion came from on my end?

This whole time you have been saying it wouldn't outsell 3DS and that it would sell somewhere in the 70-80 million range.

These numbers are on the highest end of your range and that's without the 2-3 years it will continue to sell after that point.

Based on these yearly numbers you are looking at lifetime sales of 85-90 million, or roughly 10-15 million higher than the range you have been using.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari on 18 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

And he was wrong, the fact that he misunderstood your point doesn't make you a liar. Still it was like 5x1 one on the argument. With exaggeration that anyone that thinks Switch will sell less than 80M is a hater, troll or whose analysis and opinion is irrelevant/not credible.

Find one post that called him a hater or troll.

Nobody can control what posts other people decide to reply to, just because a few people all had the same argument against what he said does not mean we are "banding together" against him.

Ok, if you want to be sure you nor others have attacked him or similar let's go.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8937860 - you even got a warning for flaming on this one.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939339 - this guy have done similar remarks on 3 different threads pretending he wasn't doing attacks.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939386 - do you need the specific word to be said to see what is the message?

It isn't to surprise that CGI had to give 3 or more warnings or mods in the thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940262 - will you say this wasn't brought to ridicularize the poster?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940568 - also people saying they didn't only gone against very negative post but positive as well. I didn't see any harsh replies to this one.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

LGBTDBZBBQ on 18 December 2018

Nintendo Switch is the fastest selling console this Generation in the US.



zorg1000 on 18 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Find one post that called him a hater or troll.

Nobody can control what posts other people decide to reply to, just because a few people all had the same argument against what he said does not mean we are "banding together" against him.

Ok, if you want to be sure you nor others have attacked him or similar let's go.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8937860 - you even got a warning for flaming on this one.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939339 - this guy have done similar remarks on 3 different threads pretending he wasn't doing attacks.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939386 - do you need the specific word to be said to see what is the message?

It isn't to surprise that CGI had to give 3 or more warnings or mods in the thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940262 - will you say this wasn't brought to ridicularize the poster?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8940568 - also people saying they didn't only gone against very negative post but positive as well. I didn't see any harsh replies to this one.

Edit: Double post 

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 18 December 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.