November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

zorg1000 said:

I know it was just a misunderstanding, the point im making is that he is displaying a double standard to say I'm being abusive but your previous comment wasnt (for the record I dont think either of us have crossed a line in our debate).

I also dont think your ~75 million prediction is terrible, the only major flaw that I have with it is that you believe Switch will extend its lead over 3DS by a few million each year for the first 4 years. If it does that and still manages to only sell ~75 million than it will have just about the sharpest decline in console history. That is why I keep asking for your yearly predictions because I want to know when and how you expect it to have such a massive decline after the 4th year.

Ok. My numbers. Sold to consumers

2017: 13M

2018: 15.6M

2019: 17M

2020: 14.4M

2021: 11.2M

2022: 8M

Total: 79.2M

Which results in being a couple million above the 3DS by the latest I expect to see a new switch.  

Thank you. Do you now see where the confusion came from on my end?

This whole time you have been saying it wouldn't outsell 3DS and that it would sell somewhere in the 70-80 million range.

These numbers are on the highest end of your range and that's without the 2-3 years it will continue to sell after that point.

Based on these yearly numbers you are looking at lifetime sales of 85-90 million, or roughly 10-15 million higher than the range you have been using.