| Shadow1980 said: I know I'm kind of late to this discussion, and I haven't been able to peruse the back-and-forth on this topic, but I did want to add my two cents. Third-party games have arguably not been a deciding factor since Nintendo stopped trying to directly compete with Sony & MS. First-party games are absolutely the backbone of Nintendo systems. They're the big attraction, the ones that put systems in people's hands. Looking at Wikipedia's list of best-selling 3DS games, they have 39 titles as million-plus sellers, totaling 206.8M copies sold. Of course, Wikipedia's best-sellers lists are rarely complete and up to date, so that's a bare minimum. Nintendo's official software shipment tally for the 3DS is 371M, meaning that based purely on official numbers cited on Wikipedia at least 55.7% of the 3DS's software sales are represented by only 39 titles. Here on VGC, the top 20 3DS games total about 194.5M copies, and they list the 3DS at 322.1M copies across all titles tracked. That's 60.4% of all software sales represented by just 40 games. And the list of Top 40 3DS games is totally dominated by Nintendo games. There's a smattering of Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch, and a couple of other titles, and that's it. The Top 200 games represent over 88% of all 3DS software sales, and Nintendo-published titles represent 74.5% of that Top 200. The software charts for the DS, Wii U, and (to a somewhat less extend) Wii were likewise dominated by Nintendo-published titles. Now we're seeing the same thing with the Switch. Going by official figures, as of Sept. 30 there is only one game not published by Nintendo that has sold/shipped over a million copies, and that was a Ubisoft game that had Nintendo characters (the Mario + Rabbids game). The Top 10 Nintendo-published games on the system represent nearly half of all software sales. If we go by VGC numbers, just 40 titles represent almost 95% of all software sales on the system, and the 11 Nintendo-published games in the Top 40 represent 70% of all software sales. This doesn't mean third-party titles are completely unimportant, but they are not the biggest draw. Nintendo games are the foundation of Nintendo systems. Third-party games just fill in the gaps. They're at best the between-meal snacks of Nintendo console libraries. As for the PS5 and Xbox 4, they won't have an impact on the Switch because the release of one system in a given brand, even if it's a successful system, has had no effect on sales of consoles in another brand. For example, the PS4 and XBO had no impact on Wii U sales, the 360 had no impact on PS2 sales, and, despite Sega bragging that they did what "Nintendon't," the Genesis had no obvious effect on NES sales if shipment data is any indication. The console market is not an absolutely zero-sum game, especially in Nintendo's case as they're providing a considerably different experience with their systems than the more traditional console experiences provided by Sony & MS. Yes, third parties are going to start putting their biggest and best games on the PS5 and Xbox 4 once those systems are released, but I'd argue that it doesn't matter. For starters, they're already doing that now. Very few major current-gen AAA titles released for the PS4 & XBO have also gotten a Switch release. So far we've had Doom, Wolfenstein II, Sonic Forces, and Dragon Ball FighterZ & Xenoverse 2, with Mortal Kombat 11 due out in April. That's about it. Every other third-party release on the Switch has been a re-release of a Gen 7 game (e.g., Skyrim), or an exclusive title made just for the Switch (e.g., Octopath Traveler), or a lower-budget title (e.g., Sonic Mania), or a sports game. The lack of major AAA multiplatform titles is already a problem. Second, the lack of major AAA multiplats doesn't mean a lack of third-party support in general. As mentioned, there are still third-party titles being made for the Switch. A few are are exclusive, some are ports, remasters, or compilations of older games, and some are lower-budget affairs. I doubt that will change substantially once the PS5 and Xbox 4 are released. Even though the Switch will be over 3-½ years old at the time, there's still money to be made from it. |
Thanks.
And this has always been the basis of my argument. I have been saying the same thin since before the switch was released.
My doubts on how well the NS can sell on nintendo software alone. And this is also the reason I set the 3DS as my ceiling because that is the last time a nintendo platform has sold that many units mostly on nintendo software alone and that is the basis of my 75M to 80M (basically sell as much as the 3DS) prediction.
Initially price was also a factor but I tossed that out the window when I saw how well it was selling a $299.
I appreciate the amount of information you have shed addressing my specific theory and I can't dispute what you have said. But I do like to know what you think about my user base overlapping theory though, cause its what I feel is the primary inhibitor (if it turns out to be the case) of nintendo software alone driving sales to 80M and beyond.
