FishyJoe said:
Unless a new sexy slim model is released.... and a game called Dragon Quest IX. |
I do believe there is such a thing as the "DS Lite". Not sure if you've heard of it or not. I think it's their re-model ;)
I know DQIX is certainly going to re-ignite sales in Japan, but when your trending down that strongly, DQIX might have as much impact as FFXII did on the PS2: It's going to move lots of software, a good bit of hardware, but in the grand scheme of things, really not effect the market as much as you'd want it to.
That's not saying that I think the DS will stop selling, or anything. I think Nintendo can get another 10-15m DS sales out of Japan alone. But I don't think we're going to see the DS break the 2007 record for hardware.
Anyone find it mega-odd that the PSP is actually the top-selling Japanese system of choice in 2008? Never woulda saw that coming.
And for the whole RPG's will make the DS sell better: What about Pokemon? Final Fantasies? Tales of? If the DS base was going to increase due to RPGs, the fact is, they're already there. The only one that can/will help the DS would be DQIX (which I could easily see DQIX move 300,000-500,000 hardware units). But aside from that, they'll have very little effect on the DS as a whole. The DS is already very genre-saturated, and I just don't see alot of "hope" for it having a huge revival in Japan, unless there is some sort of pent-up demand for the device at the $79 or $99 equivilent price level.
Again, that's not to say the DS H/W sales won't be spectacular: but I don't see it selling over 6m units/yr in Japan. Nintendo needs to focus more on the west. Why is it that the Wii and GBA can do gangbusters in the US, but the DS is very weak?