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Forums - Nintendo - PR: Nintendo Switch Best Selling week Ever (US) (8.2mil+Sold Switches LTD) [Update: 8.6mil+]

quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

So you think that Switch in more than rest of 3 weeks of November will sell just around 250k more?

That's seems highly unlikely, I mean we had reports from start of November than Switch is selling great and much better than in same period of last year and that Pokemon is moving consoles.

I don't believe in benji, it seems like he uses something like the prediction tool. I mean it's kinda ridiculous that we are trusting benji over official numbers, you said nintendo numbers does weird PR numbers  aside from mario kart attach rate there is no such case in the last 10 years, unless your talking about WW LTD which nintendo says its missing data, this is not the case here.

Its not point only about Benji, we had other things that points that Switch have good sales in any case, Amazon ranks, strong Pokemon launch, hints from other insiders...talking about Benji, he dont using nothing like prediction tool he just have access to some sales numbers in some big retailers (it seems that he works for one), also no one said that everything Benji saying is fact, but he from start of month he is very sure that Switch having very strong sales and stronger compared to last year, also he is not Nintendo fan or similar, for instance he was hole year saying that he thinks that Switch will not meat FY goal, but now in November he saying thats now much more posible.

Fact is that just a PR, and PR is made in way to spin off things and there can easily be made some mistakes espacily in comparison, fact that Nintendo done that last year means they could do something similar this time also, and this numbers are definitely fishy in any case. Also, have on mind that with those "more than 8.2m units", we talking about internal numbers while we try compare them with 3rd party numbers.

I mean non of this will change your mind in any case, so will need to wait for NPD report.



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quickrick said:
Mbolibombo said:

We got a bet already so I'm fine, however I would like to know what you are expecting from the NPD based on this?

Roughly a million? 

850-950k

Ok, that's too good of a bet not to take. 950k+ and we add or subtract to our existin bet? :)



Mbolibombo said:
quickrick said:

850-950k

Ok, that's too good of a bet not to take. 950k+ and we add or subtract to our existin bet? :)

how many more days of tracking does switch get after cyber monday?



JSG87 said:
Jranation said:
Where them Pokemon Lets Go Haters at!?!??! Did more than double in Japan!
Amazing sales for the Switch!

 

By this do you mean it sold more than double Japan Pokemon numbers? Lol.

Yes because japan had around 700k



Pocky Lover Boy! 

RolStoppable said:
p0isonparadise said:
This reminds me of their Mario Kart 8 Deluxe PR from last year.

REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– With more than 459,000 combined packaged and digital sales in the U.S. on launch day alone (April 28), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch system is the fastest-selling game in the long-running Mario Kart series....The solid sales numbers for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe equate to an attach rate of 45 percent – meaning nearly one in two Nintendo Switch owners in the U.S. purchased a copy of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on the first day it was available.

https://nintendoeverything.com/mario-kart-8-deluxe-sells-459000-copies-in-the-us-on-launch-day-fastest-selling-mario-kart-game/

April NPD wan't out yet so people used that attach percentage to figure out what Switch sold in April. If 459k was 45% of US Switch sales that meant that Switch was up to 1,021,000 units, meaning Switch sold 115,000 throughout April.

Switch ended up selling 280k in April, according to NPD.

The one line in the current PR that nobody seems to have paid attention to is "Switch hardware grew by 115 percent compared to the same period last year." Since it isn't noted otherwise, this period should refer to Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

1. Looking at VGC's estimates for Black Friday week in 2017 (472k) and taking NPD results from last November into account (770k), it seems reasonable to assign ~400k to the five-day-period in 2017. So if 400k is the base value and sales grew by 115%, the result is 860k. Known NPD LTD for Switch through October 2018 is 7.38m (4.88m LTD in 2017, 2.50m in 2018). Adding 0.86m to 7.38m results in 8.24m or "more than 8.2m." This means all the rest of the November tracking period is unaccounted for in the announced LTD figure.

2. An alternative is that Switch performed notably worse than 400k during the five-day-period last year which would in turn raise its sales levels in the other weeks of the November NPD tracking period, all of which were before Black Friday. If we assign 300k as the new base value, the remaining weeks in 2017 average ~160k. What this means for 2018 is that 645k Switch consoles were sold during the five-day-period and the preceding two weeks average ~110k to get to a total of 860k and have a fully accounted for Switch LTD figure of "more than 8.2m." What we are looking at in this scenario is significantly lower momentum leading up to Black Friday week despite the preceding October NPD tracking periods showing average weekly sales of ~75k in 2017 and ~65k in 2018.

3. Running the middleground for completion's sake, 350k as the base value results in ~750k for the five-day-period in 2018, leaving a weekly average of only ~55k for the two preceding weeks of the November tracking period, if the PR's announced "more than 8.2m" figure doesn't leave any days out. That makes less sense than scenario 2.

Scenario 1 makes the most sense.

Agreed. People will be in for a rude awakening come December 18th.



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Alby_da_Wolf said:

I don't doubt them: they don't lie, it's just that PRs of each company carefully choose both wording and the most favourable interval within the period from the previous Monday to Cyber Monday and the best possible comparison between current numbers and their own company's previous ones or a relevant competitor's current or previous ones.
This makes comparisons more difficult for us: each year each company can choose BF week or BF weekend or the period between BF and Cyber Monday or between Thanksgiving and CM or the whole period of BF week plus CM and compare it with its own previous numbers or a competitor's current or previous ones, and they rarely make the same choice (unlike official financial reports, but those usually give quarterly results, they can add some PR spin about BF or Xmas or anything else that's positive for investors, but they must be precise on the whole quarter numbers they give, be they just revenue and profit or sales numbers too). If and only if each company gives us actual numbers for exactly the same period we can make a direct comparison. Second best situation for us is if a company won BF alone, BF weekend, the whole BF week and CM too, in that case we know the outcome whatever other PRs say.

Nintendo has released precise numbers for the Switch before the NPD Group did and within a margin of error of <100k ... 

There's no viable reason to believe that Nintendo doesn't have precise data especially when they practice telemetry so they can immediately receive data if a new Switch unit was activated or not through each unit's unique hardware ID which automatically translates to sell through numbers ... (9/10 households have internet access in the US so the method I proposed is fine for collecting high quality data) 

And Nintendo did give us hard figures numbers but quite a few on here are obviously reluctant to accept them and instead choose to perform mental gymnastics so here I can give a solid review about the Switch numbers below: 

"Nintendo Switch hardware sales grew 115 percent compared to the same period in 2017." (Bullshit

"Lifetime sales of Nintendo Switch, which is entering only its second holiday season, have reached more than 8.2 million units." (Valuable)

"Sales of first-party games, including digital downloads, topped 1 million units Nov. 22-26, beating 2017’s totals by 78 percent." (Valuable

"Nintendo Switch games Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu! and Pokémon: Let’s Go, Eevee! have hit combined U.S. sales of more than 1.5 million units since their Nov. 16 launch." (Valuable)

"Super Mario Party surpassed lifetime U.S. sales of 1 million units, becoming the fastest-selling game in the Mario Party series" (Valuable

"It became the best-selling Nintendo console in U.S. history for that five-day period, surpassing even Wii system sales." (Bullshit

I'm pretty sure you can now understand why the first and last statements are shitty since their not of any value when those statements aren't quantifiable while the statements in the middle are of value since it gives us arguably precise data and it's well implicated that Nintendo collected data up until the 26th of this month so the only true statement is that the "Nintendo Switch sold over 8.2M units on November 26 in the US" while the first or last statement is just useless crap ... 



I guess is better to believe in guys like Mat Piscatella and Benji, that have shown previous times being wrong (nothing bad about it, they make their predictions based on their own info and sometimes they're right and others they aren't), than believe in official numbers coming from Nintendo. And if we have to believe the numbers, is better to believe only the numbers we like, not all them, because there are things that, obviously can't be, like selling around 400K more YOY (that's more than 50% increase YOY) because Pokemon launched and that's not enough.

Meanwhile guys like all of us in forums like this will throw each other accusations creating conflitct between opinions because Nintendo decided to make a premeditated PR to create confusion and hide the truth about the numbers with bombastic words and %s that can not be used to obtain specific numbers. Each side of the opinion have to create excuses to explain official numbers because the info is contradictory coming from Nintendo and that's absurd. If we can't believe one part of the info, automatically can't believe any other too.

In the end, it will be better to wait for NPD numbers, or even better, official shipments numbers in January. This PR has been an absolute disaster that makes more wrong than good....



quickrick said:
Mbolibombo said:

Ok, that's too good of a bet not to take. 950k+ and we add or subtract to our existin bet? :)

how many more days of tracking does switch get after cyber monday?

Tracking period: November 4th - December 1st



Mbolibombo said:
quickrick said:

how many more days of tracking does switch get after cyber monday?

Tracking period: November 4th - December 1st

switch is already at 900k then with 5 more days of tracking, it should sale over 1 million then.



quickrick said:
Mbolibombo said:

Tracking period: November 4th - December 1st

switch is already at 900k then with 5 more days of tracking, it should sale over 1 million then.

So you changing your prediction of 800,000-950,000 for November NPD to 1 million?