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Forums - Gaming - Will "next generation" have a mid-upgrade like PRO and X?

Intrinsic said:
It depends on chip fabrication.

It took 4yrs to go from 65nm to 28nm fabrication. And 6yrs to go from 2nm to 14nm. And about 4yrs to go from 14nm to 7nm (assuming there are no surprises).

And these node shrinks are getting harder and harder with each passing shrink (just ask intel).

The Pro and X models are a by product of such a node shrink. If in 3-4 years after the new consoles are released we have a shrink from 7nm to say 4nm then it will be possible for them to make consoles about twice as powerful for around whatever it cost them when the consoles launched.

If it takes 7yrs for that node shrink to come? then that will be PS6 we are talking about.

I heard they have either a 3nm or 2nm fabrication in testing. Insane If this comes. I think that would be as close as we can get before we hit the physical limit of our current method. But I heard there's some cool research going on that will introduce a new method for semiconductors to shrink even further so who knows. It's still insane to think how small these dies are.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

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Errorist76 said:

Considering even mid next gen, probably half of gamers will still be on 1080p TVs and next gen consoles will do native 4K easily, I strongly doubt it.

This time mid gen became a thing because of 4K. I doubt 8K will be a thing soon. If anything VR might be the reason.

I think you are doubting what these companies do for no reason. They will push 8k down our thorats even if we don't want it. Trust you me. And mid gen upgrades are profits for Sony and Microsoft so I think they will update it. The funny thing is now that Google's project stream beta is up and I'm playing it, I won't mind streaming consoles. What I think they could do though, is provide small discs or carts that grant access to a game for streaming. That way we can have our cake and eat it too as anyone with the disc could access it and the physical market + 2nd hand market stays alive. Developers will never do that though. 



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Mr.Joker said:
Most likely but i hope not

What kind of terrible things happened this gen that we have to prevent it next gen?



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Of course. Microsoft and Sony made a shitload of money with their new consoles, because there are more than enough people stupid enough to buy two consoles. Like me, for example. =P



唯一無二のRolStoppableに認められた、VGCの任天堂ファミリーの正式メンバーです。光栄に思います。

Anyone saying no doesn't understand business.



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shikamaru317 said:
Dulfite said:

I keep hearing things on this. An engineering friend of mine recently told me that pretty soon it will be impossible to shrink them further because parts of it (the chips or something on them, i can't remember) will be touching and make it unable to work properly.

I believe he was referring to Moore's Law, 7nm was once believed to be the smallest that transistors could ever shrink to based on Moore's Law, because anything smaller would cause quantum tunneling which allows power to escape through the walls of the transistor. However, a new manufacturing process called Gate-All-Around was discovered which will allow that limit to be circumvented at least for a few more die shrinks. So 5nm and smaller manufacturing process will be using Gate-All-Around FET rather than finFET. I do believe that 1nm is the lower limit even with gate-all-around though, so in order to circumvent that lower limit it is currently believed that we will have to design an alternative to binary computers, such as quantum computers, which are still in their infancy. They'd better get their move on making quantum computers work, because that 1nm limit will be reached by the late 2020's most likely and chipsets basically won't be able to get any more powerful after that without making them bigger, more power hungry, and more expensive.  

Yes that is what he was talking about and thanks for that information! 



No, not mid-gen. There will be an upgrade after 2 years and another one after 4 years.



I believe this is the way to go. If they wanted to make an extremely beefy hardware to last an entire gen today (8+ years), they would have to go much higher than the dangerous $ 499 budged wall limit. Better try to stay within the limit, but upgrade the hardware more often, like every 3.5 years.



Intrinsic said:
It depends on chip fabrication.

It took 4yrs to go from 65nm to 28nm fabrication. And 6yrs to go from 2nm to 14nm. And about 4yrs to go from 14nm to 7nm (assuming there are no surprises).


If it takes 7yrs for that node shrink to come? then that will be PS6 we are talking about.

Though i think it's very likely, this is the most important point. There would have to be at least some intermediate step. Next gen consoles will probably start with 8nm/7nm process, and that means console makers will need smaller manufacturing processes that also need to be cost effective.

Right now we're even quite a bit away from 7nm/8nm high performance. Intels 10nm hasn't work as planned so far and minor steps like 12nm bring only minor improvements. Global Foundries even pulled out of 7nm manufacturing.

With 7nm being that difficult and showing many delays again, 4nm could be very far away. That way future hardware generations could either last way longer and we might see midgen updates, but only after quite some time. Or the console makers won't pull out further mid gen updates. But in that case the gen after nextgen might be not that much more powerful.

 

By the way, this isn't a consoles only problem. If you look at PC-GPU's the steps between generations get smaller and smaller. Without realtime raytracing the current GeForce GTX 20X0 would have been rather disappointing.



shikamaru317 said:
Dulfite said:

I keep hearing things on this. An engineering friend of mine recently told me that pretty soon it will be impossible to shrink them further because parts of it (the chips or something on them, i can't remember) will be touching and make it unable to work properly.

I believe he was referring to Moore's Law, 7nm was once believed to be the smallest that transistors could ever shrink to based on Moore's Law, because anything smaller would cause quantum tunneling which allows power to escape through the walls of the transistor. However, a new manufacturing process called Gate-All-Around was discovered which will allow that limit to be circumvented at least for a few more die shrinks. So 5nm and smaller manufacturing process will be using Gate-All-Around FET rather than finFET. I do believe that 1nm is the lower limit even with gate-all-around though, so in order to circumvent that lower limit it is currently believed that we will have to design an alternative to binary computers, such as quantum computers, which are still in their infancy. They'd better get their move on making quantum computers work, because that 1nm limit will be reached by the late 2020's most likely and chipsets basically won't be able to get any more powerful after that without making them bigger, more power hungry, and more expensive.  

The use of multigate devices to come close to physical limits was a thing expected all along.  None of these manufacturing nodes are what the ITRS used to consider 7 nm or 5 nm, though. TSMC's 3.5 nm (and presumably Samsung's equivalent 4 - 2 nm GAAFET nodes) are what it should have been called the 7 nm node, if foundries hadn't transformed technical node names into marketing names. That's why Intel's 10 nm (which is actually a 11 nm node according to ITRS's standards) is more complex and efficient (though slightly bigger) than Samsung and TSMC's 7 nm nodes.

The next step for more demanding applications, mid to long term will likely be 3D circuitry (bonus points if CNT or copper-CNT connections are viable) but price and heat might pose a problem to apply it in future generations of consoles.