I'm talking shipments too, i said 11M shipped in the last quarter of the year, and 4M more needed to reach thar 20M goal. And I said i don't expect that much shipments in those quarters. And if you give me official number of 7'3M shipped last year, the more i doubt it. Going from 7M to 11M is a lot. I honestly doubt it will happen. Or maybe Nintendo will indeed ship that much, but because they won't sell that much, then in the next quarter they will need to ship less than normal.

I agree with you. That's a very big reason I'm far more bearish on Nintendo this holiday. It's just that everybody is expecting sky high numbers for the Switch, and I simply can't figure out why. I keep seeing 'well it shipped 7 million last year so there's no issue with it shipping a few million more than that'. But I don't see sort of logic being applied. I don't see any rationale. It's just bizarre.

Maybe will hit 11m maybe it want, but this year Q3 will be much stronger in any case than last year (I expecting around 10m in any case). Like I wrote, this holiday season Switch has Pokemon Lets Go, Pokemon bundles, Black Friday Switch MK8D bundle for $299, Smash Bros launch and Smash Bros bundles, while in same period of last year Switch only had Xenoblade 2. So yeah, its very expected that Switch will have much stronger November and December compared to last year (and last year in Q3 Switch sold 7.3m). Also we already having informations that Switch is doing very good for now in November and much better than in same period of last year in November.

Talking about Q4 sales, last year Switch shipped 3m, but this time will have much stronger momentum from Pokeom launch in November and Smash Bros in December that will be caried in January, and we have NSMBU launch in January also, so we could expect 3.5m at least.

Or far more logical, Switch Black Friday stock is smaller than PS4 Black Friday stock. Benji or someone else reported that stock for Switch Black Friday bundles is OK but deffintly smaller than PS4.

Well, I can accept 10M shipped too, and 3M ship next quarter, so in the end we think very simillar but that is still 13M (or 13'5M in your case) and if it's 13M next 2 quarters, that's still 18M for the year, so there you have why I said 17M sold and around 18M shipped in the FY.

Okay, then you have to answer, why is Switch Black Friday significantly stock smaller? Does Nintendo not want to sell units during the largest shopping day of the year in the USA?

Playstation 4 is the new beast, and I think it's well deserved, considering how many interesting and quality titles have come out since 2017

We’ll just have to see. Even Benji has noted that Pokemon Let’s Go is doing well in getting new Switch units sold.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenjiSales/status/1064261304813264897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-6973416962168066832.ampproject.net%2F1811091519050%2Fframe.html

Last year, while the Switch has Mario Odyssey in October, it had nothing else noteworthy until Xenoblade 2 in December, and that game, while great, was not gonna sell consoles like Mario or Zelda or Pokemon. This year, you not only got Smash and Pokemon, you also got a $299 MK8D bundle (+ $50 gift card at GameStop) and various other bundles. But as you said, there may not be a lot of stock of those bundles (guess it depends on where you live). The US and Europe be interesting, while Japan could potentially be incredible for Switch, considering they’re already destroying the competition in Japan even when Sony had Spider-Man, BO4, and RDR2 compared to Switch’s Super Mario Party during these last couple of months.

Well Sony last year also had much more limited stock, its was sold out even before Black Friday began, this year they have quite bigger stock. Switch is doing very well in any case for now in November, and with point that last year didnt had any Black Fridy deal, its expecting that will better in any case for Black Friday also.

Maybe they don't see it as the end all be all of their sales, especially with Pokemon being pretty fresh