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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

colafitte on 20 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Let's say we both agree on 11M shipped Oct-December 2018. That means Switch will probably sell around 8-9M minimum until the end of the year (there is always a gap of 2m units between shipments and units sold each year with every console). Switch sold around 7M last year in the same period, so even if it is difficult it may be possible although if you ask me i don't believe Switch will sell 2M more than last year. But then you ask 4M shipments more in the next 3 months, when every year, evey console have yet to sell the consoles shipped left by holiday season. That's too much....

I really think Switch will ship at most 13M, 2M shy of what they need to reach that 20M goal.

But point is that we getting official numbers from Nintendo for shipped consoles and their goal is 20m shipped consoles, so we should stick stick to shipped numbers. Switch last year in Oct-Dec period shipped 7.3m, Switch will not have problem shipping around 10m this year in same time period.

I'm talking shipments too, i said 11M shipped in the last quarter of the year, and 4M more needed to reach thar 20M goal. And I said i don't expect that much shipments in those quarters. And if you give me official number of 7'3M shipped last year, the more i doubt it. Going from 7M to 11M is a lot. I honestly doubt it will happen. Or maybe Nintendo will indeed ship that much, but because they won't sell that much, then in the next quarter they will need to ship less than normal.



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Megiddo on 20 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Megiddo said:
So over on Era I've picked up this neat tool called Brickseek. It basically gives info on number of items available at Walmart stores for certain SKUs.

For instance, search by your zip code for here: https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=579371947 and see what stock is available. For me, at the closest 5 stores to me, there are 66, 36, 52, 94, and 43 units of the Spider-man bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.

Now do the same with https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=539262525 and see what stock is available. For me at the closest 5 stores there are 3, 7, 5, 2, and 10 units of the Mario Kart 8 bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.

So it looks like for whatever reason retailers are not anticipating a big Black Friday for Nintendo's bundles in comparison to Sony. I wonder why that is?

The price is too high. 

I agree with you. That's a very big reason I'm far more bearish on Nintendo this holiday. It's just that everybody is expecting sky high numbers for the Switch, and I simply can't figure out why. I keep seeing 'well it shipped 7 million last year so there's no issue with it shipping a few million more than that'. But I don't see sort of logic being applied. I don't see any rationale. It's just bizarre.



Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018
colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

But point is that we getting official numbers from Nintendo for shipped consoles and their goal is 20m shipped consoles, so we should stick stick to shipped numbers. Switch last year in Oct-Dec period shipped 7.3m, Switch will not have problem shipping around 10m this year in same time period.

I'm talking shipments too, i said 11M shipped in the last quarter of the year, and 4M more needed to reach thar 20M goal. And I said i don't expect that much shipments in those quarters. And if you give me official number of 7'3M shipped last year, the more i doubt it. Going from 7M to 11M is a lot. I honestly doubt it will happen. Or maybe Nintendo will indeed ship that much, but because they won't sell that much, then in the next quarter they will need to ship less than normal.

Maybe will hit 11m maybe it want, but this year Q3 will be much stronger in any case than last year (I expecting around 10m in any case). Like I wrote, this holiday season Switch has Pokemon Lets Go, Pokemon bundles, Black Friday Switch MK8D bundle for $299, Smash Bros launch and Smash Bros bundles, while in same period of last year Switch only had Xenoblade 2. So yeah, its very expected that Switch will have much stronger November and December compared to last year (and last year in Q3 Switch sold 7.3m). Also we already having informations that Switch is doing very good for now in November and much better than in same period of last year in November.

Talking about Q4 sales, last year Switch shipped 3m, but this time will have much stronger momentum from Pokeom launch in November and Smash Bros in December that will be caried in January, and we have NSMBU launch in January also, so we could expect 3.5m at least.



Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018
Megiddo said:
So over on Era I've picked up this neat tool called Brickseek. It basically gives info on number of items available at Walmart stores for certain SKUs.

For instance, search by your zip code for here: https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=579371947 and see what stock is available. For me, at the closest 5 stores to me, there are 66, 36, 52, 94, and 43 units of the Spider-man bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.

Now do the same with https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=539262525 and see what stock is available. For me at the closest 5 stores there are 3, 7, 5, 2, and 10 units of the Mario Kart 8 bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.

So it looks like for whatever reason retailers are not anticipating a big Black Friday for Nintendo's bundles in comparison to Sony. I wonder why that is?

Or far more logical, Switch Black Friday stock is smaller than PS4 Black Friday stock. Benji or someone else reported that stock for Switch Black Friday bundles is OK but deffintly smaller than PS4.



colafitte on 20 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

I'm talking shipments too, i said 11M shipped in the last quarter of the year, and 4M more needed to reach thar 20M goal. And I said i don't expect that much shipments in those quarters. And if you give me official number of 7'3M shipped last year, the more i doubt it. Going from 7M to 11M is a lot. I honestly doubt it will happen. Or maybe Nintendo will indeed ship that much, but because they won't sell that much, then in the next quarter they will need to ship less than normal.

Maybe will hit 11m maybe it want, but this year Q3 will be much stronger in any case than last year (I expecting around 10m in any case). Like I wrote, this holiday season Switch has Pokemon Lets Go, Pokemon bundles, Black Friday Switch MK8D bundle for $299, Smash Bros launch and Smash Bros bundles, while in same period of last year Switch only had Xenoblade 2. So yeah, its very expected that Switch will have much stronger November and December compared to last year (and last year in Q3 Switch sold 7.3m). Also we already having informations that Switch is doing very good for now in November and much better than in same period of last year in November.

Talking about Q4 sales, last year Switch shipped 3m, but this time will have much stronger momentum from Pokeom launch in November and Smash Bros in December that will be caried in January, and we have NSMBU launch in January also, so we could expect 3.5m at least.

Well, I can accept 10M shipped too, and 3M ship next quarter, so in the end we think very simillar but that is still 13M (or 13'5M in your case) and if it's 13M next 2 quarters, that's still 18M for the year, so there you have why I said 17M sold and around 18M shipped in the FY.



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Megiddo on 20 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Megiddo said:
So over on Era I've picked up this neat tool called Brickseek. It basically gives info on number of items available at Walmart stores for certain SKUs.

For instance, search by your zip code for here: https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=579371947 and see what stock is available. For me, at the closest 5 stores to me, there are 66, 36, 52, 94, and 43 units of the Spider-man bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.

Now do the same with https://brickseek.com/walmart-inventory-checker/?sku=539262525 and see what stock is available. For me at the closest 5 stores there are 3, 7, 5, 2, and 10 units of the Mario Kart 8 bundle at the Wal-Marts near me.

So it looks like for whatever reason retailers are not anticipating a big Black Friday for Nintendo's bundles in comparison to Sony. I wonder why that is?

Or far more logical, Switch Black Friday stock is smaller than PS4 Black Friday stock. Benji or someone else reported that stock for Switch Black Friday bundles is OK but deffintly smaller than PS4.

Okay, then you have to answer, why is Switch Black Friday significantly stock smaller? Does Nintendo not want to sell units during the largest shopping day of the year in the USA?



AngryLittleAlchemist on 20 November 2018

Playstation 4 is the new beast, and I think it's well deserved, considering how many interesting and quality titles have come out since 2017



Kai_Mao on 20 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Kerotan said:

The price is too high. 

I agree with you. That's a very big reason I'm far more bearish on Nintendo this holiday. It's just that everybody is expecting sky high numbers for the Switch, and I simply can't figure out why. I keep seeing 'well it shipped 7 million last year so there's no issue with it shipping a few million more than that'. But I don't see sort of logic being applied. I don't see any rationale. It's just bizarre.

We’ll just have to see. Even Benji has noted that Pokemon Let’s Go is doing well in getting new Switch units sold.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenjiSales/status/1064261304813264897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-6973416962168066832.ampproject.net%2F1811091519050%2Fframe.html

Last year, while the Switch has Mario Odyssey in October, it had nothing else noteworthy until Xenoblade 2 in December, and that game, while great, was not gonna sell consoles like Mario or Zelda or Pokemon. This year, you not only got Smash and Pokemon, you also got a $299 MK8D bundle (+ $50 gift card at GameStop) and various other bundles. But as you said, there may not be a lot of stock of those bundles (guess it depends on where you live). The US and Europe be interesting, while Japan could potentially be incredible for Switch, considering they’re already destroying the competition in Japan even when Sony had Spider-Man, BO4, and RDR2 compared to Switch’s Super Mario Party during these last couple of months.



Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Miyamotoo said:

Or far more logical, Switch Black Friday stock is smaller than PS4 Black Friday stock. Benji or someone else reported that stock for Switch Black Friday bundles is OK but deffintly smaller than PS4.

Okay, then you have to answer, why is Switch Black Friday significantly stock smaller? Does Nintendo not want to sell units during the largest shopping day of the year in the USA?

Well Sony last year also had much more limited stock, its was sold out even before Black Friday began, this year they have quite bigger stock. Switch is doing very well in any case for now in November, and with point that last year didnt had any Black Fridy deal, its expecting that will better in any case for Black Friday also.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 20 November 2018

MasonADC on 20 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Miyamotoo said:

Or far more logical, Switch Black Friday stock is smaller than PS4 Black Friday stock. Benji or someone else reported that stock for Switch Black Friday bundles is OK but deffintly smaller than PS4.

Okay, then you have to answer, why is Switch Black Friday significantly stock smaller? Does Nintendo not want to sell units during the largest shopping day of the year in the USA?

Maybe they don't see it as the end all be all of their sales, especially with Pokemon being pretty fresh