Last December, the ratios were 1 for Switch, .91 for X1 and .72 for PS4. 

The rumored amount sold for the Switch was 1.4m so that 72% would be 1m.  Sony had a awesome BF deal last year but like you said had subpar games and bundles leading up to the end of the year so sales dropped hard Month to Month (November to December).  Sony announced their December deal for the Pro on  the 10th.  I suspect that this year we will see the same but it'll be a better pro offer, so it'll be easier to sell more that the 1 million it did last year.

Man good on you, for a lot of users that seems to be tough. I doubt it will reach that either, Still think the number will be between 16-18 million. 

Well, we need Q4 too to know if my 18M will come true..., Nintendo could pefectly overship on Q3, or..., could happen the opposite too, so let's wait until FY ends. By then we will have actual FACTS (joking...XD) with shipment numbers and we will have some clear picture of what new games will come or not in 2019. I only will accept being wrong, if i'm wrong, in March, not earlier. Until then....patience.

Well, we need Q4 too to know if my 18M will come true..., Nintendo could pefectly overship on Q3, or..., could happen the opposite too, so let's wait until FY ends. By then we will have actual FACTS (joking...XD) with shipment numbers and we will have some clear picture of what new games will come or not in 2019. I only will accept being wrong, if i'm wrong, in March, not earlier. Until then....patience.

Thank you. So i really expect 1'5M in December then. Good holiday season for PS4 and probably making it difficult to Switch to catch up in the end despite the launch of Smash. If PS4 ends selling 1'5M in December, it is possible that PS4 will sell more than Switch in the holiday season in USA. I'm pretty sure almost nobody expected this to happen in 2018 a year ago....

Not really, Q4 will from worst to best situation be 3-4m, so we can say 3.5m, 500k less-down will not change much in case. At end of January we will have much more informations in case, but at end of April we will also have not just full FY results but also Nintendo goal for FY 2019.

Good Post. 3.5m for Sony between November and December would be insane. I hope it happens. 

Actually really. Nintendo can't just ship whatever they want to ship.

It all depends on how much stock they have left at the end of Q3. Its like last FY sony sold 20M consoles but shipped less than that because they had an excess of stock remaining from Q3 2016. The same could happen with nintendo.

No one will be requisitioning lots of stock if they still have a lot of stock left unsold. They will order more, but not as much.

But that depends. How much is nintendo expected to ship in this Q3? If their total sales only ends up being about 60-70% of their total shipped for the quater then expect Q4 shipments to be lower.

Makes you wonder why they don't just have the $200 spidey bundle till the end of december. Then we could be talking over 4M in NA alone over november and december and probably another 5M from everywhere else. 9M in sales in 2 months!!!! 

They probably can't do which means sales in december will probably crash again like it did last year.

Its fine to doubt 20mil still. Its not 100% guaranteed but 16mil is too low no? Last FY Switch sold 15mil and they are about tied up in the first half. The second half is completely in 2018 favor with smash/lets go and Q4 finishes with smash momentum and at least NSMBUDeluxe compared to SMO and Bayo12/Kirby.

17mil is the floor and i think thats even low (only up 2mil). 18-19mil seem like the safe bet at the moment. 20mil is in reach and 22mil is the ceiling but doable depending if Q3 can ship at least 12.5mil-13mil

That fiscal year had the benefit of having a seperate launch window and holiday window. As opposed to other consoles that launch in the holiday window. Albeit they had supply issues those issues were mostly gone by september/october.

Nintendo can stubbornly still ship out 20M, but i expect its sales to be no more than 17M for the year. Max 18M. And I say this because I expect PS4 sales to be about 18M for the FY. And expect the switch sales to be below that. 

No. Switch didn't launch in the previous fiscal year, it launched in the one before that. It shipped 2.74M in FY3/2017, and then 15.05M in FY3/2018.

Was about to post this. Do you know what first half of 2018 was? This FY its at 5.07mil