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Intrinsic on 23 November 2018
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Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Well, we need Q4 too to know if my 18M will come true..., Nintendo could pefectly overship on Q3, or..., could happen the opposite too, so let's wait until FY ends. By then we will have actual FACTS (joking...XD) with shipment numbers and we will have some clear picture of what new games will come or not in 2019. I only will accept being wrong, if i'm wrong, in March, not earlier. Until then....patience.

Not really, Q4 will from worst to best situation be 3-4m, so we can say 3.5m, 500k less-down will not change much in case. At end of January we will have much more informations in case, but at end of April we will also have not just full FY results but also Nintendo goal for FY 2019.

Actually really. Nintendo can't just ship whatever they want to ship.

It all depends on how much stock they have left at the end of Q3. Its like last FY sony sold 20M consoles but shipped less than that because they had an excess of stock remaining from Q3 2016. The same could happen with nintendo.

No one will be requisitioning lots of stock if they still have a lot of stock left unsold. They will order more, but not as much.

But that depends. How much is nintendo expected to ship in this Q3? If their total sales only ends up being about 60-70% of their total shipped for the quater then expect Q4 shipments to be lower.

Kerotan said:
colafitte said:

Thank you. So i really expect 1'5M in December then. Good holiday season for PS4 and probably making it difficult to Switch to catch up in the end despite the launch of Smash. If PS4 ends selling 1'5M in December, it is possible that PS4 will sell more than Switch in the holiday season in USA. I'm pretty sure almost nobody expected this to happen in 2018 a year ago....

Good Post. 3.5m for Sony between November and December would be insane. I hope it happens. 

Makes you wonder why they don't just have the $200 spidey bundle till the end of december. Then we could be talking over 4M in NA alone over november and december and probably another 5M from everywhere else. 9M in sales in 2 months!!!! 

They probably can't do which means sales in december will probably crash again like it did last year.