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Intrinsic on 23 November 2018
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tbone51 said:
Acevil said:

Man good on you, for a lot of users that seems to be tough. I doubt it will reach that either, Still think the number will be between 16-18 million. 

Its fine to doubt 20mil still. Its not 100% guaranteed but 16mil is too low no? Last FY Switch sold 15mil and they are about tied up in the first half. The second half is completely in 2018 favor with smash/lets go and Q4 finishes with smash momentum and at least NSMBUDeluxe compared to SMO and Bayo12/Kirby.

 

17mil is the floor and i think thats even low (only up 2mil). 18-19mil seem like the safe bet at the moment. 20mil is in reach and 22mil is the ceiling but doable depending if Q3 can ship at least 12.5mil-13mil

That fiscal year had the benefit of having a seperate launch window and holiday window. As opposed to other consoles that launch in the holiday window. Albeit they had supply issues those issues were mostly gone by september/october.

Nintendo can stubbornly still ship out 20M, but i expect its sales to be no more than 17M for the year. Max 18M. And I say this because I expect PS4 sales to be about 18M for the FY. And expect the switch sales to be below that.