Its not point what you considering but about facts, Switch is still less than 2 years on market. Switch also has Monster Hunter and will have brand new Monster Hunter game, Switch has new full 3D Zelda, has new full 3D Mario, Splatoon, it's receiving 3D Metroid Prime, Bayonetta 3, brand new IPs...

But fact is that full handheld Diablo 3 is huge deal for some people, point that Diablo 3 is availible on PC dont change much (most of multi platform games are available on PC) some people were buying Switch just for that game, Switch Diablo 3 bundles were sold out very fast. Just for record, Diablo 3 sold more than 30m copies (30m was at end of 2015.), its very popular game. Point of 3rd party exclusives like Bayonetta and Octopath is that Switch has more diverse lineup of exclusive games, and those kind of games offocurse counts.

Guess what, PS4 also had only one year 20m+ for now. Switch will this year around 20m (18-20m) next year will also be around 20m. Based on what exaclty next year want reach 20m? You do reaslise that even now 2019. Switch lineup looks much stronger than 2018. was, also you do realise that this year Switch still had launch price point while next year will most lilky have price cut and one revision?

Yeah, I definatly see Switch being 6-7 years on market, look how 3DS is managed, look how PS4 and XB1 are managed, Nintendo will do same thing with Switch, multiple revisions and mid gen upgrades. They basically said that, they want that Switch to be longer than usual 6 years on market, and they easily achieve that because Switch has great concept, with unified platform that means undivided support from Nintendo like before and with multiply revisions.

Talking about your predictions, there is no reason to expect that next year will weaker than this year. Also its quite harder to gave predictions for year after next (2020.) because we still dont know what we could expect in that year (what lineup will be, how many revions will be, can we expect futher price cut...but I expect again to have quite stronger sales than 3DS in any case), but here comparison with 3DS for first year, current second year, and next third year:

-1st year and launch - 3DS-17m, Switch-18m (FY 2017.)

-2nd year - 3DS- 14m, Switch-18-20m (FY 2018.)

-3rd year - 3ds- 12.2m, Switch-20m (FY 2019.)

Again, 80m is bare minimum (worst case scenario) that Switch will reach in any case, I dont see how PS3/360 level (that's actually around 85m) can be monumental success for Nintendo when Switch is selling much better than those consoles in same time period.

Cumulative global console shipments.
Aligned from launch.

PS4 continues to remain ahead of PS2.
Switch is tracking in line with PS4. pic.twitter.com/vJfFkxh182

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) October 30, 2018

Well that's interesting, because based on how Switch performing this year all suggest (stronger lineup next year, most likly price cut and revision) it will perform stronger next year not weaker. Talking about comparison with previous Nintendo home consoles and handhelds, it's very clear that Switch is quite different than past Nintendo platforms (because its unified platform and hybrid) and Nintendo changed quite a bit strategy with Switch compared to previous platforms (fact they planing Switch to last more than usual 6 years also proves that), so looking past Nintendo consoles (espacily consoles like Wii or earlier ones) and trying to determine how Switch will perform is totally wrong, espciyl when we talking about generation where mid gen upgrades are normal thing. Also talking about support, like I wrote,  what is different with Switch compared to previous Nintendo platforms is that Switch will have full undivided support from Nintendo, Switch will have 2 new 3D Mario games, 2 new 3D Zelda games, 2D Mario, couple of Pokemon games, Smash Bros, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, 3D Metroid, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch..

But if this year Switch selling 18-20m with much weaker lineup than it will be next year, with still launch price point and one revision, how you can suspect that Switch next year will sell less with much stronger lineup, almost certain price cut and one revision? Or even more that next year PS4 will sell more than Switch? PS4 had peak last year, next year will weaker than this year, while Switch easily next year can have stronger sales than it did last year. AAA multi platform games are not was selling Wii, DS and now Switch, you have hard time realising that Nintendo hardware can easily have great sales even without AAA multi platform support.

But like I said, let's end this agreeing on disagreeing. Let's wait for the FY results next March and If Switch ships around 19-20M I will post admiting i was wrong, and if Switch seems to sell better too, I will admit that too, i promise, i'm not a stubborn guy. Until then I will keep my opinion on what i said.

Man good on you, for a lot of users that seems to be tough. I doubt it will reach that either, Still think the number will be between 16-18 million. 

Its fine to doubt 20mil still. Its not 100% guaranteed but 16mil is too low no? Last FY Switch sold 15mil and they are about tied up in the first half. The second half is completely in 2018 favor with smash/lets go and Q4 finishes with smash momentum and at least NSMBUDeluxe compared to SMO and Bayo12/Kirby.

17mil is the floor and i think thats even low (only up 2mil). 18-19mil seem like the safe bet at the moment. 20mil is in reach and 22mil is the ceiling but doable depending if Q3 can ship at least 12.5mil-13mil

1. All my posts can include a bit of pessimistic view point on sales. 2. 16 is flooring, that doesn't absolutely mean I think it will be 16. If anything you should my post as predicting 17 million more than anything. 3. You are way too optimistic. 

Mmmm, that's a lot to reply for. Well, i would finish this discussion, at least from my part because we're derailing a NPD thread, because i still don't agree in what you say about Diablo III as example of 3rd party support, i don't agree on saying Switch is different from other Nintendo consoles, I definitely don't agree on Switch having better software this year than in 2017 or 2018 (last year people said the same thing about 2018) and I know that Nintendo consoles don't need as much support  from 3rd parties as others to sell a lot but what i meant to say was that lack of 3rd party support means that Nintendo consoles tend to sell the most in its first 2 o 3 years than in the next 3 years. It's more about the distribution of the sales that the amonunt of sales in itself. And one last thing, I don't expect any price cuts this year from Nintendo, they don't need to, they are going this gen for the profit, like Sony and Microsoft.

But like I said, let's end this agreeing on disagreeing. Let's wait for the FY results next March and If Switch ships around 19-20M I will post admiting i was wrong, and if Switch seems to sell better too, I will admit that too, i promise, i'm not a stubborn guy. Until then I will keep my opinion on what i said.

My thoughts on this post are that you are nervous, because you realize that you will lose one of your pending bets. You predict 2.5m combined for November and December in a follow-up post and that just so happens to come in below 5.2m for the whole year in the USA. The reason why rational analysis is lacking in your posts is that above all you arrange the numbers to suit your bet, but consider that you will be better off by conceding early that you will lose the bet. Because if you do that, you will have only been wrong on the bet and shown goodwill. But if you resist, you will have been wrong on the bet and what you say now, and consequently you will be met with a beatdown in January when December NPD is released.

The situation is that Switch sold ~2.3m in last November and December combined while being supply constrained (therefore no deals whatsoever) and without a big game release during those two months. This year there won't be supply constraints, so Black Friday deals can be done; additionally, two big games release during those two months. You predict 2.5m, so an increase of only 200k year over year. That is bound to backfire.

You can't undo the bet, but you can refrain from digging a deeper hole for yourself, so that's what you should do.

My thoughts on this post are that you are nervous, because you realize that you will lose one of your pending bets. You predict 2.5m combined for November and December in a follow-up post and that just so happens to come in below 5.2m for the whole year in the USA. The reason why rational analysis is lacking in your posts is that above all you arrange the numbers to suit your bet, but consider that you will be better off by conceding early that you will lose the bet. Because if you do that, you will have only been wrong on the bet and shown goodwill. But if you resist, you will have been wrong on the bet and what you say now, and consequently you will be met with a beatdown in January when December NPD is released.

The situation is that Switch sold ~2.3m in last November and December combined while being supply constrained (therefore no deals whatsoever) and without a big game release during those two months. This year there won't be supply constraints, so Black Friday deals can be done; additionally, two big games release during those two months. You predict 2.5m, so an increase of only 200k year over year. That is bound to backfire.

You can't undo the bet, but you can refrain from digging a deeper hole for yourself, so that's what you should do.

What I wrote about Diablo 3 is a fact, so I dont see how you can or dont agree with that. Same goes for point that Nintendo is different than other Nintendo platforms, also fact (point that we talking about unifed platform and hybrid alone proves that). I didnt said that Switch has better software this year than had last year, but that next year will have better than it did this year (just from currently confirmed games for next year that obvious). Again, you ignoring fact that when comes to support, Nintendo is in much better situation compared to previous platforms because Switch is their only active platform that will have full and undivided support from them, also fact that we are in generation where mid gen upgrades and revisions have quite effect on sales in later years of platforms. I said price cut next year, not this one, next year Switch will enter in its 3rd year on market offcourse it will have some kind of price cut with most certain revision.

Fair enough.

Miyamotoo said:

Talking about bets, he also have two bets with me, one is that Switch want hit 3m in Nov+Dec combined, other is that Switch want hit 2m in Dec. :)