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quickrick on 23 November 2018
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RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:
my thoughts on october switch continues to lose momentum, even though it had the smash bundle which probably gave it a nice 30-40k boost, since it was sold out online long before it came out. ps4 is wow just a beast. november/december will very interesting, ps4 might hit 2 million, switch might break 1.1 million, but will probably see a decline in December as apposed to last year.

My thoughts on this post are that you are nervous, because you realize that you will lose one of your pending bets. You predict 2.5m combined for November and December in a follow-up post and that just so happens to come in below 5.2m for the whole year in the USA. The reason why rational analysis is lacking in your posts is that above all you arrange the numbers to suit your bet, but consider that you will be better off by conceding early that you will lose the bet. Because if you do that, you will have only been wrong on the bet and shown goodwill. But if you resist, you will have been wrong on the bet and what you say now, and consequently you will be met with a beatdown in January when December NPD is released.

The situation is that Switch sold ~2.3m in last November and December combined while being supply constrained (therefore no deals whatsoever) and without a big game release during those two months. This year there won't be supply constraints, so Black Friday deals can be done; additionally, two big games release during those two months. You predict 2.5m, so an increase of only 200k year over year. That is bound to backfire.

You can't undo the bet, but you can refrain from digging a deeper hole for yourself, so that's what you should do.

Last year it wasn't supply constrained   during the holidays until the very end December, and it was very minor, not enough to effect sales. i'm pretty sure switch won't sell 3 million, ill happily eat crow. i won all my bets so far BTW. The only one i have a chance of losing imo is the 5.2 million, switch might do 5.3 or 5.4.