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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch Software Holiday Quarter Predictions! (SSBU/PLG/Etc)

melbye said:
Pokemon will probably do 8 million by December 31, while Smash might get to 6 million

Smash will might get pass 6 million.... By end of its first day xD :P



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Barkley said:
tbone51 said:

Years ago Rolstoppable said i was on drugs so you might be on to something

Guts or glory though, if you are right it'll be the greatest prediction I've ever seen.

Well if it were to do 15mil in first month than 25mil lifetime is definelty up to a 85%-90% chance of hitting lol



tbone51 said:
Barkley said:

Will only predict the new releases:

Pokemon - 9m
Smash Bros - 7.5m

Bruh, you think Smash is going to outship Brawl's lifetime sales in under a month?

Super Mario Odyssey took 10 weeks to ship 9m. You think Smash can ship 13.85m in a little over 3 weeks?

How much do you think will be sold to consumers in those 3 weeks? How much do you think they're going to be overshipping by?

If they sold 7m in their first 3 weeks, that'd be almost 7m units sitting on shelves. xD

Actually im going all in and making my biggest BOLD claim of all time. Will make a thread on it later. But itlp be SSBU will Be the biggest Exclusive Launch of all time.

 

Stay tuned for it ill post an explanation later (when making that thread). Itll be a prediction of close to if not 15mil Ship+Digital WW first month

 

Edit: Most likely ill be wrong but if one game can do it, it would be SSBU. This is the biggest Hardcore Nintendo Franchise of all time. Im going in lmfao.

 

When im wrong every1 gonna come at me lol. I was close a couple years back with ssb4 though

I honestly don't think your prediction is that crazy. However, based on the France Shipments from a couple of months ago, I think Nintendo will under ship the game, causing it too not reach its full potential 



MasonADC said:
tbone51 said:

Actually im going all in and making my biggest BOLD claim of all time. Will make a thread on it later. But itlp be SSBU will Be the biggest Exclusive Launch of all time.

 

Stay tuned for it ill post an explanation later (when making that thread). Itll be a prediction of close to if not 15mil Ship+Digital WW first month

 

Edit: Most likely ill be wrong but if one game can do it, it would be SSBU. This is the biggest Hardcore Nintendo Franchise of all time. Im going in lmfao.

 

When im wrong every1 gonna come at me lol. I was close a couple years back with ssb4 though

I honestly don't think your prediction is that crazy. However, based on the France Shipments from a couple of months ago, I think Nintendo will under ship the game, causing it too not reach its full potential 

I was gonna talk about that too. 500k (30k from smash bundles) is france alone. That number can tell me even if its 3 weeks more after launch smash can pull a million in ship+Digital (or close to it by years end).

 

Damn i have to make that final Bold prediction thread of the year now lmao



Time to throw out some numbers that are hopefully better guesses than last year's on the same topic.

Switch hardware - 33.0m

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 15.5m
Super Mario Odyssey - 15.0m
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 13.0m
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 11.5m
Pokémon Let's Go - 9.5m
Splatoon 2 - 9.0m
Super Mario Party - 5.5m
1-2-Switch - 3.25m
Mario Tennis Aces - 3.0m
Kirby Star Allies - 2.75m
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 2.25m
ARMS - 2.25m
Xenoblade Chroncles 2 - 1.75m

I don't think we'll get an update on the bottom 3 of that list though.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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32M switches
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 16 million
Super Mario Odyssey - 15 million
Breath of the Wild - 13 million
SSBU - 10 million
Splatoon - 9mil
Pokémon Lets Go - 8mil
Super Mario Party - 5mil
1-2 Switch - 3mil
Mario Tennis Aces - 3mil
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - 2.8mil
Kirby Star Allies - 2.8mil
ARMS - 2.5mil
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2mil

Last edited by jonathanalis - on 15 November 2018

Let's see ... (shipped numbers of course)

Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 8M

Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Evee (Combined) - 6,5M

Super Mario Odyssey - 13,75M

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 14,25M

Zelda : Breath of the Wild - 11,75M

Splatoon 2 - 8,60M

1-2 Switch - 3M

Mario Tennis Aces - 2,75M

Arms - 2,3M

Kirby Star Allies - 2,60M

Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - 1,90M

Xenoblade 2 (Without Torna) - 1,70M

Super Mario Party - 3,25M

Some of them are a bit conservative but I think it'll be a great time for 1st Party sales overall.



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Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 16.00 million
Super Mario Odyssey - 14.70 million
Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 12.55 million
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 10.50 million
Splatoon 2 - 8.90 million
Pokemon Let's Go - 8.80 million
Super Mario Party - 5.55 million
1-2-Switch - 3.30 million
Mario Tennis Aces - 3.15 million
Kirby Star Allies - 3,05 million



I don’t know exact numbers but all I know is that Pokemon > Smash. Fight me



Super Mario Odyssey - 12.57 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 13.21 million
Breath of the Wild - 11.09 million
Splatoon - 7.84mil
1-2 Switch 2.74mil
Mario Tennis Aces - 3.06mil
ARMS - 2.33mil
Kirby Star Allies - 2.46mil
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - 1.97mil
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 1.90mil
Super Mario Party - 3mil
Pokemon - 9.9mil
Smash - 11.3



Switch!!!