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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. November 2018 bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

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Kai_Mao on 25 November 2018
animegaming said:
Benji has made some interesting post on both Twitter and ResetERA




PS4 could in fact be down from last November

https://www.resetera.com/posts/15365080/

Especially if Cybermonday doesn't move a lot.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/15365168/

2 million for the PS4 is unlikely right now

https://www.resetera.com/posts/15365575/

Keep, according to Benji its still having strong sales and could still be number 1, but don't expect any major growth, in fact it might be down.

That's interesting...PS4 could likely win, but it probably won't do the numbers we could hope for in comparison to last year?

I'm glad Switch is on the rise compared to last year. Even if the MK8D $299 BF deal wasn't the greatest in the world, it still has good value, especially with the $50 gift card bonus from a few retailers. Plus, Pokemon Let's Go appears to have made a positive impact on Switch's momentum. It probably won't sell up to the LT sales of X/Y or S/M, but Let's Go will do really well LT for what it tried to accomplish, especially as the first HD "core" Pokemon title ("core," as noted by the Pokemon Company President previous times).



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Nuvendil on 26 November 2018
Megiddo said:
If Benji is only referring to Amazon sales, that would make a lot of sense as I believe there were much less stock for the PS4 this year. However, in terms of retail brick and mortar sales, everything points to there being a larger supply overall of PS4 units this year than last year, which would mean larger Black Friday sales than last year.

The issue was always going to be the Spiderman bundel's stock.  That's been doing the heavy lifting.  So while initial impressions of stock were strong, it's possible in the end it came up similar to or lower than last year's 199 deal.  

It's the same for Switch, the MK8D and Pokemon bundles did the big numbers.  The shipment sizes of each will impact sales significantly.



Megiddo on 26 November 2018
Nuvendil said:
Megiddo said:
If Benji is only referring to Amazon sales, that would make a lot of sense as I believe there were much less stock for the PS4 this year. However, in terms of retail brick and mortar sales, everything points to there being a larger supply overall of PS4 units this year than last year, which would mean larger Black Friday sales than last year.

The issue was always going to be the Spiderman bundel's stock.  That's been doing the heavy lifting.  So while initial impressions of stock were strong, it's possible in the end it came up similar to or lower than last year's 199 deal.  

It's the same for Switch, the MK8D and Pokemon bundles did the big numbers.  The shipment sizes of each will impact sales significantly.

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.



Kerotan on 26 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

The issue was always going to be the Spiderman bundel's stock.  That's been doing the heavy lifting.  So while initial impressions of stock were strong, it's possible in the end it came up similar to or lower than last year's 199 deal.  

It's the same for Switch, the MK8D and Pokemon bundles did the big numbers.  The shipment sizes of each will impact sales significantly.

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.

 

Hopefully, does anybody know whatbenji refers to regardingstock. Is he talking about just the stores he manages? k



Nuvendil on 26 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

The issue was always going to be the Spiderman bundel's stock.  That's been doing the heavy lifting.  So while initial impressions of stock were strong, it's possible in the end it came up similar to or lower than last year's 199 deal.  

It's the same for Switch, the MK8D and Pokemon bundles did the big numbers.  The shipment sizes of each will impact sales significantly.

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.

Oh it will win NPD, no question.  It just won't be up.

And while the Switch bundles were influential factors, I imagine they got more mileage out of their standard MSRP skus than PS4 got.  Which wouldn't be shocking since last year, a 250 PS4 did nothing to prevent PS4 coming in third behind Xbone and Switch in December, with the Switch winning by 500k with no bundles or major deals.  

Switch's bundles will help it be up YoY.  PS4's 199 bundle is needed just to be flat YoY.  Without that 199 bundle, they would be massively down.  And without shipping far more than last year, they won't be up by any meaningful margin.

Still, this is before CM.  Things could change.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 26 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

The issue was always going to be the Spiderman bundel's stock.  That's been doing the heavy lifting.  So while initial impressions of stock were strong, it's possible in the end it came up similar to or lower than last year's 199 deal.  

It's the same for Switch, the MK8D and Pokemon bundles did the big numbers.  The shipment sizes of each will impact sales significantly.

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.

 

Nuvendil said:
Megiddo said:

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.

Oh it will win NPD, no question.  It just won't be up.

And while the Switch bundles were influential factors, I imagine they got more mileage out of their standard MSRP skus than PS4 got.  Which wouldn't be shocking since last year, a 250 PS4 did nothing to prevent PS4 coming in third behind Xbone and Switch in December, with the Switch winning by 500k with no bundles or major deals.  

Switch's bundles will help it be up YoY.  PS4's 199 bundle is needed just to be flat YoY.  Without that 199 bundle, they would be massively down.  And without shipping far more than last year, they won't be up by any meaningful margin.

Still, this is before CM.  Things could change.

I'm not sure what to make of the stock situation, Benji sounded very sure last week when he assured everyone the BF stock would be significantly higher this year than last, then completely reneged today. 

Anectdotal but last year I recall walking into Target on Thanksgiving day about 30 mins after they opened and there were still plenty of PS4s on the shelf, people were buying them fairly briskly but there was ample stock.  I recall stories where stores weren't selling out until like midnight or so. This year, same exact scenario and they were completely wiped out by the time I arrived 30 mins after opening. Whether or not this was due to more/less stock, higher demand, or customers being on higher alert this year knowing how fast the $199 were gone last year remains to be seen I guess. I personally still hope for Sony to break the November record as it means our hobby is alive and well, and dedicated console gaming is here to stay for a while. 



Kai_Mao on 26 November 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Megiddo said:

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.

 

Nuvendil said:

Oh it will win NPD, no question.  It just won't be up.

And while the Switch bundles were influential factors, I imagine they got more mileage out of their standard MSRP skus than PS4 got.  Which wouldn't be shocking since last year, a 250 PS4 did nothing to prevent PS4 coming in third behind Xbone and Switch in December, with the Switch winning by 500k with no bundles or major deals.  

Switch's bundles will help it be up YoY.  PS4's 199 bundle is needed just to be flat YoY.  Without that 199 bundle, they would be massively down.  And without shipping far more than last year, they won't be up by any meaningful margin.

Still, this is before CM.  Things could change.

I'm not sure what to make of the stock situation, Benji sounded very sure last week when he assured everyone the BF stock would be significantly higher this year than last, then completely reneged today. 

Anectdotal but last year I recall walking into Target on Thanksgiving day about 30 mins after they opened and there were still plenty of PS4s on the shelf, people were buying them fairly briskly but there was ample stock.  I recall stories where stores weren't selling out until like midnight or so. This year, same exact scenario and they were completely wiped out by the time I arrived 30 mins after opening. Whether or not this was due to more/less stock, higher demand, or customers being on higher alert this year knowing how fast the $199 were gone last year remains to be seen I guess. I personally still hope for Sony to break the November record as it means our hobby is alive and well, and dedicated console gaming is here to stay for a while. 

Are there signs that dedicated console gaming is endangered? Isn't console revenue up and Switch's success is adding to the equation?



PortisheadBiscuit on 26 November 2018
Kai_Mao said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

 

I'm not sure what to make of the stock situation, Benji sounded very sure last week when he assured everyone the BF stock would be significantly higher this year than last, then completely reneged today. 

Anectdotal but last year I recall walking into Target on Thanksgiving day about 30 mins after they opened and there were still plenty of PS4s on the shelf, people were buying them fairly briskly but there was ample stock.  I recall stories where stores weren't selling out until like midnight or so. This year, same exact scenario and they were completely wiped out by the time I arrived 30 mins after opening. Whether or not this was due to more/less stock, higher demand, or customers being on higher alert this year knowing how fast the $199 were gone last year remains to be seen I guess. I personally still hope for Sony to break the November record as it means our hobby is alive and well, and dedicated console gaming is here to stay for a while. 

Are there signs that dedicated console gaming is endangered? Isn't console revenue up and Switch's success is adding to the equation?

Not 'endangered' so to speak, but things like streaming are a threat to change gaming as we know it IMO. The fact that demand is still high for hardware as we know it is an encouraging sign. 



animegaming on 26 November 2018

Another update from Benji

"The 20 million dream for the Switch is very much alive"

https://www.resetera.com/posts/15367947/



Kai_Mao on 26 November 2018
animegaming said:
Another update from Benji

"The 20 million dream for the Switch is very much alive"

https://www.resetera.com/posts/15367947/

Guess we'll have to see. It'll be a very interesting holiday. Get ready for the video games' version of Avengers: Infinity War/Justice League Unlimited!