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Nuvendil on 26 November 2018
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Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

The issue was always going to be the Spiderman bundel's stock.  That's been doing the heavy lifting.  So while initial impressions of stock were strong, it's possible in the end it came up similar to or lower than last year's 199 deal.  

It's the same for Switch, the MK8D and Pokemon bundles did the big numbers.  The shipment sizes of each will impact sales significantly.

 But that's the thing. We had Brickseek inventory numbers for Spiderman PS4 vs MK8D bundles, and it's a 5:1 ratio or greater in favor of Spider-man for all the Wal-Mart stores I checked. There were were 40-100 Spider-man bundles and there were 2-10 MK8D bundles. All are now showing as < 2 stock right now for each, but the much higher stock for Spider-man should lead it to an easy November NPD victory.

Oh it will win NPD, no question.  It just won't be up.

And while the Switch bundles were influential factors, I imagine they got more mileage out of their standard MSRP skus than PS4 got.  Which wouldn't be shocking since last year, a 250 PS4 did nothing to prevent PS4 coming in third behind Xbone and Switch in December, with the Switch winning by 500k with no bundles or major deals.  

Switch's bundles will help it be up YoY.  PS4's 199 bundle is needed just to be flat YoY.  Without that 199 bundle, they would be massively down.  And without shipping far more than last year, they won't be up by any meaningful margin.

Still, this is before CM.  Things could change.