Forums - Nintendo Discussion - October 2018 Nintendo Sales update predictions thread

HylianSwordsman said:
I'm really only curious about the online subscriptions. 20+ million consoles and cheap subscription, but you can get cheap family accounts and people regard it pretty poorly, so I'm thinking less than two million subscriptions, less than $30 million in subscription fees due to all the "family" memberships.

 

People are still going to want to play games like Splatoon 2 and Smash though, the holiday will no doubt see a spike in subs.



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Mbolibombo said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hardware:
Switch - 22.80 million (keep in mind initial shipments of the Fortnite bundle are certainly counted here as it has to be shipped out by that point despite only releasing a week later)
3DS - 73.80 million

Software - Switch:
Super Mario Odyssey - 12 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 11.8 million
Breath of the Wild - 10.10 million
Splatoon 2 - 7.45 million
1-2-Switch - 2.70 million
Kirby Star Allies - 2.25 million
ARMS - 2.20 million
Mario Tennis Aces - 1.85 million
DKC: Tropical Freeze - 1.75 million
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 1.55 million

Bonus (probably in a press release and/or investor's Q&A):

Octopath Traveller: 1.8 million
Fortnite: 3M+
Paladins: 500K+

I would bank on a lot more Forniteplayers than 3M. It was downloaded more than 2 million times in the first 24 hours so just another million downloads in 4 months seems way too low.

Well since it's free, I doubt many waited to download, thus basically near everybody who had a Switch and wanted the game at the time downloaded it already back then, hence why I don't expect that much growth right now.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mbolibombo said:

I would bank on a lot more Forniteplayers than 3M. It was downloaded more than 2 million times in the first 24 hours so just another million downloads in 4 months seems way too low.

Well since it's free, I doubt many waited to download, thus basically near everybody who had a Switch and wanted the game at the time downloaded it already back then, hence why I don't expect that much growth right now.

Not everyone watches an event like e3. Considering the two million number is only for the first day, I'm sure many people didn't know that Fortnite was on the Switch that day



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mbolibombo said:

I would bank on a lot more Forniteplayers than 3M. It was downloaded more than 2 million times in the first 24 hours so just another million downloads in 4 months seems way too low.

Well since it's free, I doubt many waited to download, thus basically near everybody who had a Switch and wanted the game at the time downloaded it already back then, hence why I don't expect that much growth right now.

You're not factoring in new consumers who are also Fortnite players the NS version allows them to continue their progress on the go or not have to share a TV.



MasonADC said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Well since it's free, I doubt many waited to download, thus basically near everybody who had a Switch and wanted the game at the time downloaded it already back then, hence why I don't expect that much growth right now.

Not everyone watches an event like e3. Considering the two million number is only for the first day, I'm sure many people didn't know that Fortnite was on the Switch that day

Considering how I got bombarded by that news, I think it was pretty hard to miss, especially if you're getting Nintendos promotional e-mails, too.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
MasonADC said:

Not everyone watches an event like e3. Considering the two million number is only for the first day, I'm sure many people didn't know that Fortnite was on the Switch that day

Considering how I got bombarded by that news, I think it was pretty hard to miss, especially if you're getting Nintendos promotional e-mails, too.

Yeah you got bombarded by the news... but you are also active on a gaming forum/s and are much more likely to get the news from whatever sites / Twitter etc compared to the average Joe. Far from every Switch user is active like u and me on the matter. . I am 100% it's a lot more than 3M users. Fortnite has been either #1 or #2 on the popularity search in my region since it was launched back in June and I am guessing that's the case pretty much across the globe.

Heck even Pokemon Quest had 2,5M users in three weeks on the Switch. I just think you are far to conservative on your guess :>