http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/pachter-wii-to-dominate-march-as-ps3-outsells-xbox-360/?biz=1
In advance of this week's March NPD video game sales data (expected on Thursday), Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has forecast video game software sales to be way up for the month. He's predicting a 47 percent increase from $579 million to $850 million.
Sales are expected to be driven by Nintendo's Super Smash Bros. Brawl, EA's Army of Two, Ubisoft's Rainbow Six Vegas 2, Take-Two Major League Baseball 2008, as well as continued strong sales for Nintendo's Wii Play, MTV's Rock Band, and Activision's Guitar Hero III.
The Wii should really dominate March, according to Pachter, with 700K units sold (this compares to 593K units as predicted by The simExchange). The wildly popular DS is also predicted to sell 700K (once again 593K from simExchange). Meanwhile, Sony's PS3 is expected to sell 365K units for the period, beating out the Xbox 360's 310K, according to Pachter. The simExchange has it much closer but still in favor of PS3, 301K to 296K. Rounding out the system predictions, Pachter believes the PSP will sell 300K while the PS2 sells another 320K.
"The Wii supply situation has made forecasting unit sales quite difficult. Since April 2007, Nintendo has manufactured 1.8 million Wiis per month, implying that U.S. share should be somewhere between 720,000 – 900,000 units per month (40 – 50% of total units produced). We believe that Nintendo has diverted a significant portion of its available supply to Europe since April, as the weakening dollar has made U.S. sales less profitable for the company. However, we believe that European supply has caught up with demand, and think that the company likely shipped the U.S. its 'fair share' in the month of March, particularly in light of Nintendo's need to support the launch of Super Smash Brothers Brawl," Pachter noted.
"Our forecast of 700,000 units sold in the U.S. reflects our belief that Nintendo will continue to supply the U.S. at the low end of its historical market share, but also reflects our view that the supply situation will begin to improve over the next several months, particularly as the company has balanced supply and demand in other regions. We expect a surge in supply in Europe during April, in order to meet expected demand for the Wii Fit launch late in the month, and expect a similar surge in the U.S. for Wii Fit's May 19 launch here."
And as strong as Pachter believes March has been, he's expecting "even greater growth" in April thanks to Nintendo's Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time/Darkness (DS) and Mario Kart Wii and Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto IV (360, PS3). He noted that the video game sector is "appearing highly recession-resistant."
