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Forums - Politics Discussion - New study: US does not have 31% of mass shooter, closer to 1.5%

Mr Puggsly on 02 September 2018
bubblegamer said:
More fake news coming from the same topic makers lol. Some people are not even here to talk about games or sales.

Many of us long time posters have gotten old. We bitch about politics now.

Sony is doing great, MS is gonna exit console gaming. Blah blah... It gets old.



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FentonCrackshell on 02 September 2018
Mr Puggsly said:
Chris Hu said:
Sure there are countries that are far more dangerous then the USA but that being said the USA is nowhere near being one of the the safest countries in the world.

I would like to think the US is safer than a vast majority of countries. Much of the violence is also gang related, so not being involved with gangs is helpful if you wanna stay alive. Essentially, much of the crime in the country tends to be in concentrated areas. Hence, crime could go down significantly if gangs were dealt with.

I guess its interesting to know where countries rank in mass shootings. But I am more concerned with the overall violent crime and murders in a country. For example, Mexico has significantly more muders than the US and an even bigger gang crime, with a smaller population. That should be more concerning than who has more mass shootings.

Bolded for truth! I say this all the time. Gang crime is what’s running rampant and jacking up murder rates. I grew up in a rough neighborhood that was pretty bad when I was there. The bangers have all been moved out and now the neighborhood is nearly crime free now. No guns going off, no break ins. There’s the occasional “disturbance” because drunks are legal but that’s it. Same hugely black demographic neighborhood but low crime rate. Why?! Because the gangs were moved out. 

Last edited by FentonCrackshell - on 02 September 2018

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Pemalite on 02 September 2018

Now compare it with Developed nations.

Also... My own country hasn't had a mass shooting in decades. - USA needs to catch up.



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Dark_Lord_2008 on 02 September 2018

The USA is safe in comparison to a South American or African nation. In comparison to a laid back easy going European nation, the USA is a far more dangerous place to live.



sundin13 on 02 September 2018
FentonCrackshell said:
Mr Puggsly said:

I would like to think the US is safer than a vast majority of countries. Much of the violence is also gang related, so not being involved with gangs is helpful if you wanna stay alive. Essentially, much of the crime in the country tends to be in concentrated areas. Hence, crime could go down significantly if gangs were dealt with.

I guess its interesting to know where countries rank in mass shootings. But I am more concerned with the overall violent crime and murders in a country. For example, Mexico has significantly more muders than the US and an even bigger gang crime, with a smaller population. That should be more concerning than who has more mass shootings.

Bolded for truth! I say this all the time. Gang crime is what’s running rampant and jacking up murder rates. I grew up in a rough neighborhood that was pretty bad when I was there. The bangers have all been moved out and now the neighborhood is nearly crime free now. No guns going off, no break ins. There’s the occasional “disturbance” because drunks are legal but that’s it. Same hugely black demographic neighborhood but low crime rate. Why?! Because the gangs were moved out. 

Out of curiosity, I decided to see what I could find for statistics relating to what percentage of homicides are gang related. For the most part, the stats suggest that the overall rate is around 10%. If you narrow your focus to just cities with high gang activity, that figure jumps to about 30%.

These numbers aren't perfect, but from a quick search, I don't think it is fair to say that gang violence is the primary driver of homicide rates.



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sc94597 on 02 September 2018

It is also important to note that for many Americans homicides are pretty non-existent, like in much of Europe. 

The high rates in the south seem to be caused by four things:

1. Cultural predisposition towards violence as a mechanism of dispute resolution. 

2. Higher gang and smuggling activity. 

3. Warmer climate 

4. More absolute poverty in the south. 

The areas bordering Canada have crime rates similar to Canada. The areas bordering Mexico and the Caribbean have crime rates similar to Mexico and the Caribbean. 



sundin13 on 02 September 2018
sc94597 said:

It is also important to note that for many Americans homicides are pretty non-existent, like in much of Europe. 

The high rates in the south seem to be caused by four things:

1. Cultural predisposition towards violence as a mechanism of dispute resolution. 

2. Higher gang and smuggling activity. 

3. Warmer climate 

4. More absolute poverty in the south. 

The areas bordering Canada have crime rates similar to Canada. The areas bordering Mexico and the Caribbean have crime rates similar to Mexico and the Caribbean. 

Also worth noting that for many Americans in the lightest part of the country on that map, other humans are also pretty rare, if you catch my drift.



sc94597 on 02 September 2018
sundin13 said:

Also worth noting that for many Americans in the lightest part of the country on that map, other humans are also pretty rare, if you catch my drift.

This isn't true of New England, for example,  you can see that Boston (and Massachusetts in general -- which is the least rural state in the country) has similar crime-rates to its rural neighbors. Also many counties with high crime rates in the south are very rural. 

 


Or am I misunderstanding what you mean? 



sundin13 on 02 September 2018
sc94597 said:
sundin13 said:

Also worth noting that for many Americans in the lightest part of the country on that map, other humans are also pretty rare, if you catch my drift.

This isn't true of New England, for example,  you can see that Boston (and Massachusetts in general -- which is the least rural state in the country) has similar crime-rates to its rural neighbors. Also many counties with high crime rates in the south are very rural. 

Or am I misunderstanding what you mean? 

No, you are understanding me. While there are certainly areas with higher population and lower crime, pretty much the entire center of the country has a very low population density, which leaves a map like that not really the best way of expressing the homicide rate for most Americans. I don't know of any statistical measures which express the homicide rate for the average American or a straight forward way of showing how many Americans live in areas with homicide rate greater than x (x being whatever rate you consider "high"), but I don't think a map is the best way to demonstrate these things.

Further, I think that first map is fairly telling when you look at the legend. Massachusetts has a homicide rate of 1.9/100k. That is taken as an example of how low the homicide rate is for some Americans, yet:

France has a homicide rate of 1.23
UK has a homicide rate of 1.20
Sweden has a homicide rate of 1.08
Norway has a homicide rate of 0.51
Canada has a homicide rate of 1.68
Spain has a homicide rate of 0.69

I could go on. Even the areas of our country which we can be proud to say are low homicide areas far exceed the homicide rates seen across most other Western developed countries.



sc94597 on 02 September 2018
sundin13 said:

No, you are understanding me. While there are certainly areas with higher population and lower crime, pretty much the entire center of the country has a very low population density, which leaves a map like that not really the best way of expressing the homicide rate for most Americans. I don't know of any statistical measures which express the homicide rate for the average American or a straight forward way of showing how many Americans live in areas with homicide rate greater than x (x being whatever rate you consider "high"), but I don't think a map is the best way to demonstrate these things.

Further, I think that first map is fairly telling when you look at the legend. Massachusetts has a homicide rate of 1.9/100k. That is taken as an example of how low the homicide rate is for some Americans, yet:

France has a homicide rate of 1.23
UK has a homicide rate of 1.20
Sweden has a homicide rate of 1.08
Norway has a homicide rate of 0.51
Canada has a homicide rate of 1.68
Spain has a homicide rate of 0.69

I could go on. Even the areas of our country which we can be proud to say are low homicide areas far exceed the homicide rates seen across most other Western developed countries.

But you keep ignoring the low population density areas in the south with high homicide rates, and that much of urban New England (with its high population density) has comparable homicide rates to Canada. Certain urban areas will have higher homicide rates than rural ones (on average), but you are overstating the significance. 

Here is a regression. 

There is a very, very, very slight correlation. This makes sense because most homicides happen between people who know one another. 

I'm not sure how much one would notice the difference between a homicide rate of 1.9/100k and 1.68/100k. 

But there are states with lower homicide rates than Massachusetts anyway: 

1. New Hampshire - 1.1 /100,000  

2. Hawaii - 1.3/100,000 

3. Iowa - 1.5/100,000 

4. Vermont - 1.6/100,000 

5. Maine - 1.7/100,000 

6. Idaho - 1.8/100,000 

7. Oregon - 1.8/100,000 

8. Utah - 1.8/100,000 

9. Massachusetts 1.9/100,000 

Comparatively, let's look at some other regressions: