I don't care if they sell more, I said they won't hit their expected targer and I'm pretty sure of that. So why do you want to lower the bar exactly?

If you want to be precious about it, yeah i have doubts they beat their launch year, but piracy will help a lot to offset a slow year in terms of big game launches. 

You're right. I'm getting too excited. But 8mil in deDecemb has much more chance than 8mil the entire year considering smash and pokemon

I didn't lower the bar, you did bring up that comparison: "Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year?"

That you don't want stay to your own statements is your thing.

Pachter is on the right track about the predictions being too high, however, it's highly plausible that a price drop will recompense for the over anticipation of holiday titles to push hardware alone. Especially with that leak (not saying I believe it) of a Switch Pro happening next year which stated that the current Switch will receive a price drop. But even leak aside - I'm pretty sure a price drop is the only way to sell 15m+ this fiscal.

I think 15 million is more likely unless they have a publicly impactful fall direct or something that produces unprecedented sales for a Q4 and Q1. Because so far Q2 and Q3 ending have only done slightly better than last year's numbers. And this doesn't include the explosive launch month of 2.7m+ sold (?) don't remember the figure exactly.

Considering the only way I think Switch won't sell 8M this FY is end of the world (which would be lower than 1 in 1 billion), even if we think the chance of it selling 8M in December to be 0.001% or less it is still imensively more probable =p

alright, so you latched on to the side point for the bet proposal, got it.

I'll clarify my personal view then, I'm 99% sure they won't hit their target, I'm doubtful they will sell better than  the same equivalent period of last year. In their favor is piracy and some possible lowering of price / holiday deals to quickly move to the new SKU.

I suppose it should sound a lot more reasonable now right?

Well yeah. I agree it is difficult to hit their 20M target (that is shipping), I personally think that is 50/50, depending how well Pokemon and Smash move hardware. They will definitely sell better than last year in the comparable periods.

My man! That's exactly what I'm saying

And I totally agree with you. Now let's see Switch break boundaries and make it happen

There's just no way that can be correct.