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Forums - Sales - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

quickrick on 03 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

Because those games are evergreens, and usually come out once a generation,  it doesn't matter they came in spring/summer,  it was there first holiday on the market.

Ok so if they are evergreens than shouldnt they also have an effect this holiday? What about other games like Kirby, Donkey Kong, Mario Tennis, etc which will be having their first holiday?

So this holiday will have two very big hitters, last years evergreens, this years mid-tier releases and most likely some holiday bundles/promotions.

I just dont get why you are so convinced Switch wont have as good or better of a holiday than last year.

They will have a effect but nothing like in there first holiday. those other games you mentioned are obviously  not on the same level, none will even break 5 million ltd. while the other games all look to sale over 10 million and with the 2 mario titles doing 15-20 million. 

I just feel switch had more going for it last year, we'll see what happens. 



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Qwark on 03 June 2018

The Switch is going to outsell or at least outship the PS4 this year so I disagree.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Bofferbrauer2 on 03 June 2018
quickrick said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

These games brought the Switch baseline up to where it is nowadays, and it shows on the weekly software sales charts as they show their super long legs. However the Switch is still missing many key franchises, with Smash, Fire Emblem and some Pokémon games already announced for this year alone. Add to this more, newer and bigger 3rd party games like Octopath Traveller, Dark Souls and probably Fortnite and you can be pretty sure that the Switch will take up the slack and lead the sales charts in the second half of the year, and dominate during the holiday season. And that's without any new game announcements during E3. 

yea i heard before, it was suppose dominate 2018, now it wait till those games releases.

Well Switch did dominate in December. Sales were weak in November because no Black Friday deals at all. But that was the launch year and they had supply issues until shortly before the holiday season so it was clear that they wouldn't have a promotion for black Friday back then. This year however there's not much of a reason not to have at least a small promotion for Black Friday, so both months should rock the house this year. 



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

quickrick on 03 June 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:

yea i heard before, it was suppose dominate 2018, now it wait till those games releases.

Well Switch did dominate in December. Sales were weak in November because no Black Friday deals at all. But that was the launch year and they had supply issues until shortly before the holiday season so it was clear that they wouldn't have a promotion for black Friday back then. This year however there's not much of a reason not to have at least a small promotion for Black Friday, so both months should rock the house this year. 

except it didn't. it sold 10% more then the xbone, thats not domination, with ps4 having a weak December because xbone was 100$ cheaper till december 17.



CrazyGamer2017 on 03 June 2018

It could very well be. In fact if the Switch wants to call itself a PS4 level success then it must. The PS4 is at the end of its life cycle whereas the Switch is at the beginning so if it does not outsell the PS4 next year it would mean that it will probably never sell as much as the PS4 will do lifetime.

So far on average the PS4 has sold more than 17 million units per year. The Switch: 15 million units. Well, we only have 1 year of figures for the Switch so it's too soon to draw conclusions of course but this second year the Switch (From March 2018 to March 2019) must sell 19 million units to keep up with the 17 million units average of the PS4. Let's wait and see if it does.

Last edited by CrazyGamer2017 - on 03 June 2018

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The_Liquid_Laser on 03 June 2018

This will be a somewhat disappointing year for Switch, but it will be the Switch's only disappointing year. I think PS4 will outsell Switch this year. I also think PS4's second year will outsell Switch's 2nd year. It will be disappointing for the Switch all around.

In 2019 and beyond I see fortunes changing for the Switch. Clearly Switch will outsell PS4 in 2019 and beyond. But more importantly Switch's 3rd year will outperform PS4's third year. Switch's fourth year will outperform PS4's fourth year and so on. In fact Switch will continue to look more and more impressive each year it is on the market. It will become the greatest selling console yet.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Barkley on 03 June 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch will continue to look more and more impressive each year it is on the market. It will become the greatest selling console yet.

Nintendo consoles tend to sell fast, and peak early. So good luck with that, 2019 or 2020 will be the peak.



LethalP on 03 June 2018
quickrick said:
fatslob-:O said:

Possibly not when we consider the situation so far ...

1. PS4 beat the Switch by a MASSIVE 7M unit margin last year
2. PS4 has a lead of 1.5M units according to VGC and it is likely projected to reach ~3/3.5M units by the end of September
3. Nintendo system shipments usually often peak very early into their life cycle
4. Smash Bros for Switch release date has yet to be confirmed so the expectation that it will release in late Q3 this year is highly speculation for the most part
5. PS4 will most likely continue to have strong sales going into 2019 with as many as ~15M units sold

In conclusion, it would not be out of the realm of near possibility that the PS4 could potentially outsell the Switch next year too as well as it highly likely will for this year judging by current performance ...

Wow ps4 outsold switch by 7 million last year, thats insane.

To be fair PS4 (2017) also beat PS4 (2014) by 6 million. Launch years for any console can't stack up to prime years, not a fair comparison.



Kristof81 on 03 June 2018

Depends on the lineups and how well the new Pokemon will do. It seems that 2019 might the peak year for the Switch and if that's the case, that's going to be the year where Switch will outsell the PS4, especially now, where we don't see massive jumps in PS4 sales, even with some of the huge new releases.



LethalP on 03 June 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
LethalP said:

PS4 might sell 19-20 million this year, maybe more. But it's probable that it starts to slow down in 2019 beyond. The Switch on the other hand has only started out, and has many years left. There are those who already think Switch will outsell PS4 this year but assuming it doesn't, I myself think this is the last 18+ million selling year for PS4.

Do you think Switch will take the reigns as sales king in 2019 and going forward?

It's not even sure that the PS4 will outsell the Switch this year. Sure, PS4 is in front for now but a) it's tracking well below last year's sales despite the release of such great sellers like God of War and Monster Hunter World, so it will most likely not sell as well as you might expect and b) Switch had a rocky start this year with barely any high profile releases, but starting with Mario Tennis Aces the bigger releases are coming in for the second half of the year and culminating in a Smash and Pokémon 1-2 punch and possibly a great black Friday deal for the holiday season. 

With both Smash and Pokémon in this holiday season this holiday season will belong to Nintendo. Sony needs to build up a sizeable advantage in sales to fend off the assault from Nintendo, even with a probable pricecut for the PS4 in the meanwhile. 

To be fair VGChartz undertracked the PS4 last year up until the June 11th announcement of 60.4 million. PS4 might be undertracked on VGChartz, or overtracked. What we do know is that the PS4 sold 7 million in 5 months and 11 days last year. That was way up from other years so 2018 has that to beat, it might not but lets just see when Sony announce 80 million.

PS4 2018 is actually outpacing 2017 in the US, no doubt thanks to GoW. Worldwide I can't say. We are all basing this of VGChartz at the moment so we don't know if the PS4 is actually leading the Switch by 1.5 million so far. June adjustments might alter things the other way, or further ahead so we should wait and see. Lets just go off VGchartz for a moment, the PS4 is outselling Switch because, as you say, it has more game releases. This will probably be the case up until September. But what if there's a 3-4 million PS4 lead by then? It will be going into the fall/holidays with a sizable advantage, and expecting Switch's holiday to be more than 3-4 million units more successful than a $199 PS4 with Spider-Man and Red Dead is fucking silly tbh. Will Switch even win Black Friday? Are they willing to do the price drops Sony and MS are? And even then, will they take Europe in the Holidays?

The Switch has an up hill battle to beat the PS4 worldwide this year. It could win December, but it's not going to be a blow out. It likely won't even make up for the current lead PS4 already has as of June.