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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

Pinkie_pie said:
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Short answer, it's not. 

Longer one. I think PS4 is going to outdo Sony's prediction and sell ~17M-18M. They will have a permanent cut to $249 this year, and most likely another $199 week. And that's not even taking into account the games it has releasing. Still, with all that, the max it can hope for is 18M.  

At this point, I think it's obvious, Nintendo expected Labo to help push HW, at least until the holidays and a few larger releases. That didn't pan out. So, my guess is they are either going to amend their goal, or they are going to have massive sales this holiday season, with probably a permanent cut to $249, as well. Still, even with all that, I still see them missing their goal. Probably matching Sony's 17M-18M.

Basically, Nintendo thought they had the next Wii, but it's not looking that way. It's definitely going to do well, but it's not exactly a phenomenon. 



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quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

YoY

PS4: +58%
Switch: -39%
XBox One: +20%

YTD
PS4: ~1.3M (+7%)
NSW: ~1.03M (-13%)
XB1: ~980K (+34%)
 

PS4 huge YoY up is obviously because GoW, Switch YoY down is obvously because Switch last year had MK8D and this Labo and April last still had launch effect because console was sold out in March.

switch was coming off a launch month I told you that already. april is always for console sales, remember are bet ;).

I know that, but frankly expected Labo will perform better that will have better effect. May, will definitely be stronger than April was. About bet, 4 months to go. ;)

 

quickrick said: 
Pinkie_pie said: 
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Nintendo likes to be bullish to impress investors. they were off with wiiu for like 3 years in a row big time. there is no way nintendo is hitting 20 million imo.

Actually with Switch from launch they were quite conservative from launch, thats why last few quarter they were increasing numbers. Smash Bros + Pokemon thats most likly coming this year will easily make Switch hit 20m this FY year.

 

 

nemo37 said: 
Miyamotoo said: 

Nintendo itself also said that, but like you wrote, Switch lineup until April wanst good while from this month is getting quite stronger and espacily in second half of year when we will have Smash Bros and most likly Pokemon.

But going by these numbers, I think that having ports for much of the first half of the year was a mistake. The ports themselves are being boosted because not only are most of them great games but this time they are being launched on far better received and selling hardware. However, the ports themselves are not moving units like a new game would. Similarly, I think they overestimated Labo.

At this point I am somewhat worried about Switch's sales momentum. I may be catastrophizing, but I seriously hope that Nintendo has a strong H2 lined up for 2018 and potentially even a price cut. Right now my worry is not that it will not hit 20 million, but rather that it will only do about half of that prediction.

This 4. month not of year not 1st half of year, and it seems that May will be qute stronger for Switch, DKTF and Hyrule Wariors are definatly quite stronger than Labo was in April, in June we will have Mario Tennis. I agree that they probably overestimated Labo.

Keep in mind that those 20m are from April 2018. to March 2019. so one not good month (January-March were good months in sales) dont change nothing really, like I wrote, 1st 4 months of year were not good but from May Switch lineup is getting quite stronger and espacily in second half of year when we will have Smash Bros, Fire Emblem and most likly Pokemon with some other games.

 

 

Pinkie_pie said: 
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Beacuse this only first month of FY 2018. where PS4 had one if its best game ever while Nintendo had Labo that didnt perform like Nintendo expected, 11 months to go. ;)



thismeintiel said:
Pinkie_pie said:
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Short answer, it's not. 

Longer one. I think PS4 is going to outdo Sony's prediction and sell ~17M-18M. They will have a permanent cut to $249 this year, and most likely another $199 week. And that's not even taking into account the games it has releasing. Still, with all that, the max it can hope for is 18M.  

At this point, I think it's obvious, Nintendo expected Labo to help push HW, at least until the holidays and a few larger releases. That didn't pan out. So, my guess is they are either going to amend their goal, or they are going to have massive sales this holiday season, with probably a permanent cut to $249, as well. Still, even with all that, I still see them missing their goal. Probably matching Sony's 17M-18M.

Basically, Nintendo thought they had the next Wii, but it's not looking that way. It's definitely going to do well, but it's not exactly a phenomenon. 

With the way ps4 is selling, and sony's low prediction, I don't think they plan on dropping the price.



quickrick said:
Pinkie_pie said:
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Nintendo likes to be bullish to impress investors. they were off with wiiu for like 3 years in a row big time. there is no way nintendo is hitting 20 million imo.

I wouldn't say there's "no way", I think there is a chance if Pokémon Switch releases by late summer and rekindles the Switch hype in a big fashion and if Smash Bros Switch manages to carry that momentum through the holiday season. The Fortnite port (that I assume is in development/will be out by fall) should also help out a lot.

That said I'm not sure what else is on Nintendo's table that can impact sales enough to reach 20m shipped this FY and with just these 3 highlights it might not be enough after all.

Last edited by Lafiel - on 18 May 2018

Great month for PS4

Switch pretty solid (same as PS4 2nd April)

XBO up quite a bit YOY

3DS still chugging along

Good month all around



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

switch was coming off a launch month I told you that already. april is always for console sales, remember are bet ;).

I know that, but frankly expected Labo will perform better that will have better effect. May, will definitely be stronger than April was. About bet, 4 months to go. ;)

PS4 had some huge system sellers, in 2015 like witcher 3 and batman, don't expect switch to do better in may, it's a weak month as well for console sales.



Are people really doubting fiscal year projections based on 1 month of sales?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

quickrick said:
Pinkie_pie said:
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Nintendo likes to be bullish to impress investors. they were off with wiiu for like 3 years in a row big time. there is no way nintendo is hitting 20 million imo.

Not really. The only year they were massively off for Wii U was in its first full fiscal year (where they forecasted 9 million units). The other years, their forecast was largely accurate.



thismeintiel said:
Pinkie_pie said:
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Short answer, it's not. 

Longer one. I think PS4 is going to outdo Sony's prediction and sell ~17M-18M. They will have a permanent cut to $249 this year, and most likely another $199 week. And that's not even taking into account the games it has releasing. Still, with all that, the max it can hope for is 18M.  

At this point, I think it's obvious, Nintendo expected Labo to help push HW, at least until the holidays and a few larger releases. That didn't pan out. So, my guess is they are either going to amend their goal, or they are going to have massive sales this holiday season, with probably a permanent cut to $249, as well. Still, even with all that, I still see them missing their goal. Probably matching Sony's 17M-18M.

Basically, Nintendo thought they had the next Wii, but it's not looking that way. It's definitely going to do well, but it's not exactly a phenomenon. 

Short answer, it will, little longer one, Smash Bros + Pokemon. :)

You can't really say that Switch will not be next Wii based on one month that's not good.



nemo37 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Nintendo itself also said that, but like you wrote, Switch lineup until April wanst good while from this month is getting quite stronger and espacily in second half of year when we will have Smash Bros and most likly Pokemon.

But going by these numbers, I think that having ports for much of the first half of the year was a mistake. The ports themselves are being boosted because not only are most of them great games but this time they are being launched on far better received and selling hardware. However, the ports themselves are not moving units like a new game would. Similarly, I think they overestimated Labo.

At this point I am somewhat worried about Switch's sales momentum. I may be catastrophizing, but I seriously hope that Nintendo has a strong H2 lined up for 2018 and potentially even a price cut. Right now my worry is not that it will not hit 20 million, but rather that it will only do about half of that prediction.

 

Ok that's a bit crazy. I doubt they will be down from last FY, and I seriously doubt they will only ship 10 million systems