Short answer, it's not.
Longer one. I think PS4 is going to outdo Sony's prediction and sell ~17M-18M. They will have a permanent cut to $249 this year, and most likely another $199 week. And that's not even taking into account the games it has releasing. Still, with all that, the max it can hope for is 18M.
At this point, I think it's obvious, Nintendo expected Labo to help push HW, at least until the holidays and a few larger releases. That didn't pan out. So, my guess is they are either going to amend their goal, or they are going to have massive sales this holiday season, with probably a permanent cut to $249, as well. Still, even with all that, I still see them missing their goal. Probably matching Sony's 17M-18M.
Basically, Nintendo thought they had the next Wii, but it's not looking that way. It's definitely going to do well, but it's not exactly a phenomenon.
With the way ps4 is selling, and sony's low prediction, I don't think they plan on dropping the price.
Nah, they're going to. Like I said, I fully expect them to exceed their prediction by at least 1M. Still, the lower prediction is why I'm only expecting a $50 cut to $249. If they predicted to match last year's, then I would expect a $100 cut to $199. A $50 cut will help boost the bottom line, but it's not going to have a radical boost in sales, like a cut to $199 would. This will also mark the 2nd year anniversary of the Slim and $299 price, it's time to cut.