My takeaways from this:
Congrats to Mario Odyssey for reaching double digits. It will easily be the best selling 3D Mario of all time
I have similar things to say about Breath of the Wild, also rapidly approaching the 10 million mark . Both are exceptional games.
Splatoon is known to be huge in Japan, but it's foreign numbers arent anything to scoff at, all the same.
3.41 million copies outside of Japan alone.
ARMS isnt likely to get a sequel. It did decently, but it's cleat it isnt the smash hit that splatoon was. I feel like it's a one off for the mariokart team. They will go back to developing Mariokart 9.
MarioKart 8-D is already back to selling faster than odyssey. It will overtake odyssey for the throne by the end of the year.
Pokken is at 1.16 million excluding Japan. So it is confirmed to be one of the four third party games to hit the million mark this last fiscal year. marioXrabbids is all but confirmed to hit one million as well. If I had to place to place bets on the two remaining games, it would be skyrim and fifa 18.
Pokemon Ultra-Sun/Moon have shipped 7.5 million. It is tracking ahead of other pokemon games that came late in the consoles life-cycles (Pokemon crystal, emerald, black 2-white 2), IIRC.
Funny how everyone writes off the posibility of an Arms sequel because it hasn't sold 3 to 5 million. Xenoblade 1 and X never broke 1mil but 2 was made AND given the biggest marketing push of them all and that's a much more costly series than Arms. Arms has already outsold the highest selling Pikmin entries and that series is still chugging along. Nintendo has demonstrated time and time and time again that they are completely comfortable with giving ideas more than one shot if they show potential. And they are also happy to keep mid tier franchises going. I would be surprised if Arms doesn't get a follow up.
The difference here is, Xenoblade is Monolith's main series. That has always been their jam, that's what they are good at.
The only reason Pikmin gets sequels is because that franchise is Shigeru Miyomoto's baby.
I'm not suggesting ARMS was a failure. Infact, I admit that it did quite well for what it was. It probably earned more profit's than Xenoblade 2, as you suggested. However, if you're Nintendo, do you send the Kosuke Yabuki team to.....
a) Make Mariokart 9. A game that is basically guaranteed to sell at least 10 million units on Switch (probably much more than that)
b) sequel to ARMS, something that may not even hit 2 million (first game only sold as well as it did because next to nothing on the switch when the game launched. Now, that advantage will also be gone).
You could put another EPD team on it, sure. But what team? Take the koizumi team off 3D Mario? Take the Aonuma team off Zelda? Take Nogami team off Splatoon? Heck no, to all of these. The only one that would do it is 1,2 Switch/Labo team.