By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many million sellers will the Switch have in its second year?

 

How many million sellers will the Switch have in its second year?

1-2 6 6.90%
 
3-4 6 6.90%
 
5-6. 10 11.49%
 
7-8 10 11.49%
 
9-10 15 17.24%
 
More than 10 million sellers. 40 45.98%
 
Total:87

Well Kirby is already close to the half a million mark in Japan with current sales data, and the rest of the regions should easily make up that other 500k

Bayonetta 2 is a hard case, the sales have been halving week after week according to the data we have. Seems like the sales potential is pretty dead in Japan, and it looks like the US and Europe will have to push for it. A Bayonetta 3 reveal could give it a temporary boost, but we don't know when that is. I'm willing to believe that it can eventually hit a million but I'm not sure if that's possible this year, unless its legs are as good as Skyrim's, since Skyrim didn't do wonders in its FW but it sustained on the chart pretty well.

Hyrule Warriors and DKTF are absolute wildcards. I can see Hyrule Warriors being more popular among the west this time round due to BOTW's popularity which I think will have an influence on anything Zelda related, but I think that goes hand in hand with the fact that there wasn't a new Zelda for the Wii U that gen until the very end so Zelda fans had their fix on that. For the package it's a pretty good deal though, so I hope it can hit 1M this year. As for DKCTF, meh...pretty bad deal and is a more expensive relaunch. It'll probably hit 1M if this is the only DK we'll be seeing in a while.

I'm expecting 500k at least for Crash and Octopath in the first month. Wait, scratch that. July has too many games lol. That's not a good prediction

Generally I'll say at the end of the year there should be at least 10 1M sellers.
Odyssey, MK8D, BOTW, Splatoon 2, ARMS, Mario+Rabbids, Pokken (So far, which is already 7)
+Skyrim, FIFA (doing steady on the charts), Kirby easily, Smash Bros.

Idk about the rest though we need to see gameplay, + there is obviously another big first party title they have releasing in the holiday season. Whether it's Pokemon or AC they will easily pass 1M no question. An interesting discussion would be how any new third party games would do if they are releasing there. Because right now the Switch is looking pretty bad for new third-party AAA games unless it's all to be announced by Nintendo at E3. Hate this tactic though.



Around the Network
CrazyGamer2017 said:
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.

WHAT. 1st of all, Pokemon is like what the second highest selling video game franchise of all time! It's been a 30 million+ seller before and that's not even including the 1.5 instalments. Then Smash and Animal Crossing are both 10 million sellers, not a single Zelda or Metroid game has reached those numbers before.

Last edited by Green098 - on 22 April 2018

Number of already announced titles that in my opinion will be 1 million sellers by December 31st 2018:

1. Super Mario Odyssey
2. Zelda Breath of the Wild
3. Splatoon 2
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
5. ARMS
6. 1-2-Switch
7. Pokken Tournament DX
8. Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle
9. Xenoblade Chronicles 2
10. Minecraft
11. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
12. Fifa 18
12. Super Bomberman R
13. Puyo puyo Tetris
14. Kirby Star Allies
15. Snipperclips
16. Rocket League
17. Crash Bandicoot N-Sane Triology
18. Sonic Mania
19. Super Smash Brothers 2018
20. Fire Emblem 2018
21. Yoshi 2018
22. Mario Tennis Aces
23. Octopath Traveller
24. Yokai Watch 4
25. Pokemon Switch (if it releases in 2018)

Last edited by Green098 - on 22 April 2018

Green098 said:
CrazyGamer2017 said:

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.

WHAT. 1st of all, Pokemon is like what the second highest selling video game franchise of all time! It's been a 30 million+ seller before and that's not even including the 1.5 instalments. Then Smash and Animal Crossing are both 10 million sellers, not a single Zelda or Metroid game has reached those numbers before.

That may be true. I meant quality wise: Zelda, Mario and Metroid Prime are seminal achievements that leave an imprint in the video games culture. And that's what I meant by "big guns".

But come to think of it, I can see your side of the argument. If Pokemon sells so much more then it would end up influencing hardware sales even more. So in that sense you can legitimately consider that game as a big gun. I'll concede that.

However I was speaking quality wise as Zelda, Metroid Prime and Mario games are seminal games that I could almost say define the very Nintendo brand.



CrazyGamer2017 said:
Green098 said:

WHAT. 1st of all, Pokemon is like what the second highest selling video game franchise of all time! It's been a 30 million+ seller before and that's not even including the 1.5 instalments. Then Smash and Animal Crossing are both 10 million sellers, not a single Zelda or Metroid game has reached those numbers before.

That may be true. I meant quality wise: Zelda, Mario and Metroid Prime are seminal achievements that leave an imprint in the video games culture. And that's what I meant by "big guns".

But come to think of it, I can see your side of the argument. If Pokemon sells so much more then it would end up influencing hardware sales even more. So in that sense you can legitimately consider that game as a big gun. I'll concede that.

However I was speaking quality wise as Zelda, Metroid Prime and Mario games are seminal games that I could almost say define the very Nintendo brand.

Yes, in most metrics they are considered Nintendo's "Big 3". However, in sales and by extension, ability to move consoles, the other franchises mentioned either exceed those 3 or come very close to doing so.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Around the Network
peachbuggy said:

Got to be over 10 if titles from last year are included. FIFA, Skyrim and i'm sure a few others, plus both LABO kits, Kirby, Smash, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, probably 3 as-yet unannounced titles from E3. Whichever title is holiday title. I'm also expecting pikmin to be announced for a July or August title. 

 

EDIT:- Oh yeah and DK, Mario Tennis and maybe Captain Toad and Octopath.

I don't know how far it's from a million but remember each new FIFA almost cuts entirely the legs of the one before it



CrazyGamer2017 said:
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.

You think Poekmon, smash and animal crossing aren't;t big guns? They basically carried the 3ds to what it is today i.e Pokémon and animal crossing. Smash has always increased system sales and sells like crazy. Much more than metronidazole prime or even Zelda. Facts are facts and Polemon crosses Mario or at the very least is the same level, don't even kid yourself. They are as big as guns get my friend



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Mbolibombo said:

This fiscal year I think the following games will hit 1M

Skyrim - will push 1M units
Fifa 18 - will push 1M units - World Cup will help out
Kirby - probably there already
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - It's getting there
Minecraft - I think it has already, but no confirmation
Rocketleague - I could see it being there already. But certainly in this fiscal year if not already.
Smash Bros - Slamdunk
Octopath Traveller - Heavily pushed by Nintendo. This will hit 1M
Nintendo Labo - Yeah I think it hits 1M
Fifa 19 - With a growing userbase, I think it's getting there. And comfortably so.
Mario Tennis - New first party game. Will hit 1M
Fire Emblem Switch - If it actually releases this year
Yoshi - Yep

Possibilities:
Captain Toad
Hyrule Warriors
Street Fighter 30th anniversary collection - The success of USF2 may make it happen
Sonic Forces - if heavily discounted I could see it happen
Crash Bandicoot Trilogy - Not counting on it, but I dont see why not.
Mega Man 11 - That would be a sight.. ^^


And since we dont really know how the second half of the year turns out and I still have counted 13 games.. I'm pretty confident that we're going to see at least 15 games sell 1M or more from march '18- march '19

Anything under 10 would be close to impossible.

Yeah forgot about Megaman. I think a lot of people will buy it cause even if they don't like the mainline franchise like myself, they still are thirsty for Megaman and if it sells well they can release a new Megaman X a battle netowrkthe entire franchise might restart. I personally want a megaman x9 I've been waiting for that game forever now. I think Megaman will reach a million no problem because of the hype



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

pastro243 said:
peachbuggy said:

Got to be over 10 if titles from last year are included. FIFA, Skyrim and i'm sure a few others, plus both LABO kits, Kirby, Smash, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, probably 3 as-yet unannounced titles from E3. Whichever title is holiday title. I'm also expecting pikmin to be announced for a July or August title. 

 

EDIT:- Oh yeah and DK, Mario Tennis and maybe Captain Toad and Octopath.

I don't know how far it's from a million but remember each new FIFA almost cuts entirely the legs of the one before it

740k up 3 March according to this site. I think it can make it.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

pastro243 said:
peachbuggy said:

Got to be over 10 if titles from last year are included. FIFA, Skyrim and i'm sure a few others, plus both LABO kits, Kirby, Smash, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, probably 3 as-yet unannounced titles from E3. Whichever title is holiday title. I'm also expecting pikmin to be announced for a July or August title. 

 

EDIT:- Oh yeah and DK, Mario Tennis and maybe Captain Toad and Octopath.

I don't know how far it's from a million but remember each new FIFA almost cuts entirely the legs of the one before it

If numbers on this site is remotely to the truth - It's shy than 300k left and that's without digital and with the World Cup coming up and future sales.. I think it will hit 1M before the next Fifa releases. I'm confident it will.

 

Eagle367 said:
Mbolibombo said:

This fiscal year I think the following games will hit 1M

Skyrim - will push 1M units
Fifa 18 - will push 1M units - World Cup will help out
Kirby - probably there already
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - It's getting there
Minecraft - I think it has already, but no confirmation
Rocketleague - I could see it being there already. But certainly in this fiscal year if not already.
Smash Bros - Slamdunk
Octopath Traveller - Heavily pushed by Nintendo. This will hit 1M
Nintendo Labo - Yeah I think it hits 1M
Fifa 19 - With a growing userbase, I think it's getting there. And comfortably so.
Mario Tennis - New first party game. Will hit 1M
Fire Emblem Switch - If it actually releases this year
Yoshi - Yep

Possibilities:
Captain Toad
Hyrule Warriors
Street Fighter 30th anniversary collection - The success of USF2 may make it happen
Sonic Forces - if heavily discounted I could see it happen
Crash Bandicoot Trilogy - Not counting on it, but I dont see why not.
Mega Man 11 - That would be a sight.. ^^


And since we dont really know how the second half of the year turns out and I still have counted 13 games.. I'm pretty confident that we're going to see at least 15 games sell 1M or more from march '18- march '19

Anything under 10 would be close to impossible.

Yeah forgot about Megaman. I think a lot of people will buy it cause even if they don't like the mainline franchise like myself, they still are thirsty for Megaman and if it sells well they can release a new Megaman X a battle netowrkthe entire franchise might restart. I personally want a megaman x9 I've been waiting for that game forever now. I think Megaman will reach a million no problem because of the hype

Yeah I hope Mega Man delivers.. it's such a great franchise and it deserves a great comeback =)