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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction- Mid gen Switch refresh 2020

BlackBeauty said:
Barkley said:

Tegra Xavier chip has a 1.3TF GPU.... the XBO X GPU is 6TF.....

No a Switch 2 comparable to the XBO X will not launch in 2020. lmao

That’s not how TF works but go off. Xavier is leaps and bounds more advanced than anything inside the XBX. The Xbox is still using pretty ancient tech.

Nvidia and Nintendo signed a what 10 year plan for switch? And during the recent investor meeting for Nvidia, they were talking about their relationship with Nintendo. So we should expect custom made high performance chips based on Xavier. That’s not a reach.

Sigh... here's digital foundry with an article about future Tegra Chips and the possible future for Switch.

"Nvidia has already announced its latest, cutting-edge Tegra processor - codenamed Xavier... Quite how this would map to a Nintendo console isn't so apparent - conceivably we'd be looking at PS4 levels of performance, or something in that ballpark."

"The size of the chip would make it more difficult to integrate into a Switch-type hybrid design and the processor would obviously be a lot more expensive too. A few years down the line, when chip manufacturing costs have come down, perhaps Xavier could work within a tablet-style device?"

So sure you could get one, not questioning the possibility of that. I'm laughing at your XBO X comparison.

More advanced does not equal more powerful.



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Miyamotoo said:
I expecting Switch Mini/Pocket next year and than stronger Switch in 2020.

Same, but I think a more effective way of keeping the Switch relevant for when the PS5 arrives is just to keep making great games, like Super Mari Odyssey or Breath of The Wild.



Well, Nintendo has subtly commented on an upcoming new version of Nintendo Switch that will be purchased by traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers.

http://time.com/4661055/nintendo-switch-interview/?iid=sr-link8

Takahashi said:
…“It is Nintendo Switch, so maybe we’ll switch it up!” jokes Takahashi, responding to a question about whether Switch’s life cycle will resemble more the company’s TV consoles (completely new ideas at five-year-plus intervals) or its handhelds (subtler changes every few years). “Certainly, we’ve designed Nintendo Switch in a way that it can be used by consumers in the way that best suits them. I think we may see that people who have bought a Nintendo home console in the past traditionally, they may treat Switch like a home console and buy it and use it for a long period of time.”


“Whereas people who have been traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers, they may buy Nintendo Switch and then for example, if a new version were to come out later, then maybe they would decide to upgrade to that…

This comment also indicates that the OG Nintendo Switch is their current hardware plan for targeting home console gamers, where as this hinted at remodel of Nintendo Switch focuses on targeting their traditional handheld gamer base.

The areas where that focus can be better served are by making the Nintendo Switch more pocketable, lower priced, with better battery life and/or not require active cooling. (i.e. Nintendo Switch Mini or Nintendo Switch SP)

That is certainly the direction that Nintendo seems to be focused on right now. Nintendo knows that the 3DS will fade as Nintendo Switch grows, and they need to fill that lower price entry point to expand the platform significantly.

People hoping for some powered up SKU that has a bunch of games the original Nintendo Switch cannot run have not paid attention to Nintendo’s history with said revisions.

Anytime Nintendo has made such SKUs (i.e. DSi and New 3DS) they have allowed developers to make games for them that do not run on the original models, and the amount of total software that actually forgoes the existing user base has been very very very few titles. It just does not make sense for the financial side of things for developers to cater to a less than half portion of the install base, rather than the whole install base.

Will Nintendo make Nintendo Switch models with newer and better SOCs? Probably so, but the performance benefit will be marginal to non existent at best, as the focus will be to reduce cost of the total cost of materials (i.e. a 7nm SOC would allow them to put a smaller battery, reduce the entire chassis size, and remove the active cooling).

Nintendo is not focused on upgrading resolution of their consoles. They are still selling a 240p handheld console in 2018 at reduced costs with a very healthy profit margin on hardware and will continue that focus in the future.

In 2023, the Nintendo Switch will still have a 720p screen and Nintendo will be happy with the low cost and high profit margin and will have multiple SKUs.

Nintendo's focus is it leverage its software library to sell its hardware, and to reduce costs of hardware while addressing a wider audience. Focusing on CPU and GPU power and splitting their user base and pushing upmarket leading to a fragmented library is not where they will expand and Nintendo knows this.

Nintendo Switch will compete against the PS5 and Xbox 4 by going for reduced costs and novelty SKUs, while continuing to release new games for many many years.

Sure, a Nintendo Switch 2 (the Switch's true sucessor) with games not compatible with the OG Nintendo Switch will eventually release, but Nintendo is in no rush. Kimishima even mentioned they want to have 7-10 years between the Nintendo Switch's launch and the launch of its sucessor, so the intention and plans are currently facing that trajectory.

By the time PS5 and Xbox 4 come out, Nintendo Switch will have a large active userbase that will be differentiated enough from PS5 and Xbox 4 that it will not effect the Nintendo Switch's momentum.



CaptainExplosion said:
Miyamotoo said:
I expecting Switch Mini/Pocket next year and than stronger Switch in 2020.

Same, but I think a more effective way of keeping the Switch relevant for when the PS5 arrives is just to keep making great games, like Super Mari Odyssey or Breath of The Wild.

Offcourse, in 2020. we could easily have onother 3D Zelda and 3D Mario.



BlackBeauty said:

Nah much sooner than that.

It’s coming later this year or early next year.

The revision will be using a custom X2 chip.

2020 will be Switch 2. Using Xavier which will put on par with Xbox one X and 8K video rendering. One thing to keep in mind is that arm is catching to x86 very quickly. 

 

Apple is already will be ditching intel chips which will further innovate mobile chips.

Ugh, don't remind me of that idiocy.

Anyways, I agree that an X2 revision is due sooner rather than later, although I think it's likely to be a more 'under the hood' improvemet, with better battery life being the main benefit. Unless they add in more RAM as well while they're at it, then it might actually get significantly better docked performance as well.

Switch 2 might be 'forwards comatible' with the X2 revision as well, if that is the case.



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Miyamotoo said:
CaptainExplosion said:

Same, but I think a more effective way of keeping the Switch relevant for when the PS5 arrives is just to keep making great games, like Super Mari Odyssey or Breath of The Wild.

Offcourse, in 2020. we could easily have onother 3D Zelda and 3D Mario.

I'm hoping more by then for a new F-Zero, Metroid Prime 4, Smash Bros. 5, maybe even a revival of Nintendo light gun games like Duck Hunt or Wild Gunman.



They might bring out a smaller Switch of the same power as well as a more powerful option, yeah I see that.



It's obvious, compare to SONY and Microsoft Nintendo tend to release multiple version and upgrade in the middle of their handled generation. It's the question on will or how, but more of what or when?

New tech, smaller dice, efficient cost, lead to cheaper cost for Nintendo and cheaper price for consumer and better performance and game compatibility with future third party games.



I'd love an upgraded smaller model with better hardware, but not with userbase fragmentation like you said. They would be shooting themselves in the feet.

It'd be better if it just ran OG model games at 1080p 60fps on docked mode. This would be a nice boost and would allow extra features/effects/better lightning in new games on the new model.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

The only thing they should "refresh" are better Joy-Cons with the same analog sticks that are on the pro and a real d-pad. It needs to be just as precise in handheld mode as it does in console mode imo.