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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction- Mid gen Switch refresh 2020

Shiken said:
flashfire926 said:
What's the point of a switch revision if we won't get 1080p undocked

Being able to handle PS5 games at 1080p 60fps docked, or at all in handheld mode.

Even with upgrade it most likely won’t get 1080p 60fps PS5 games. Current switch is playing multiplats at 720p 30fps most of the time. So if the next revision will be able to play PS5 games at the same resolution it would be fine I guess. 



 

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Shiken said:
flashfire926 said:
What's the point of a switch revision if we won't get 1080p undocked

Being able to handle PS5 games at 1080p 60fps docked, or at all in handheld mode.

I mean... it might get a lot closer to PS4... the difference between a Switch Pro and PS5 would be bigger than the difference between the current Switch and the PS4... Which already has games that porting would to the switch would be unfeasible, witcher 3 for example.

Switch - 0.4TF
PS4 - 1.84TF
PS5 - 10-12TF?

Creating an updated switch that can handle PS5 games just isn't feasible. Luckily as happened this generation, most third-party games will be cross-gen for a while. But even so I wouldn't expect major third party support in 2020 and beyond even with an upgraded switch, hell it's not exactly doing it now.



derpysquirtle64 said:
Shiken said:

Being able to handle PS5 games at 1080p 60fps docked, or at all in handheld mode.

Even with upgrade it most likely won’t get 1080p 60fps PS5 games. Current switch is playing multiplats at 720p 30fps most of the time. So if the next revision will be able to play PS5 games at the same resolution it would be fine I guess. 

I am being idealistic when I say 1080p 60fps.  Honestly if we get a ballpark 1080p upscale at 30 fps, I call that a win for a hybrid (which is most likely what would happen).  This applies to PS5 games however.  Cross gen or PS4 games would be expected at 1080p 60fps on Switch 2.

Barkley said:
Shiken said:

Being able to handle PS5 games at 1080p 60fps docked, or at all in handheld mode.

I mean... it might get a lot closer to PS4... the difference between a Switch Pro and PS5 would be bigger than the difference between the current Switch and the PS4... Which already has games that porting would to the switch would be unfeasible, witcher 3 for example.

Switch - 0.4TF
PS4 - 1.84TF
PS5 - 10-12TF?

Creating an updated switch that can handle PS5 games just isn't feasible. Luckily as happened this generation, most third-party games will be cross-gen for a while. But even so I wouldn't expect major third party support in 2020 and beyond even with an upgraded switch, hell it's not exactly doing it now.

See my reply above.  Even if we get the games at sub 1080 at 30 fps (which is a sizable downgrade from 4k), I would be fine.  The whole 1080p 60fps is more idealistic or at least the standard for 1st party games.

 

As for 3rd party support, most AA games are coming to Switch.  The major 3rd party games would depend on how demanding they are.  For example, we have DOOM and Wolfenstein II, but no Battlefield 5.  I am holding off until E3 to put that final nail in the coffin as to how much 3rd party support the Switch is currently getting, but as of now yes it is pretty much AA and A teir games (which is fine next to a unified 1st party line up from Nintendo).

RolStoppable said:
Shiken said:

It would literally be the same thing they did with the NEW 3DS, just on a larger scale.  How does that make no sense?

When is Switch 2 supposed to launch?

Aside from that, when you start with a refresh "like PS4 Pro and Xbox One X" and then change it right afterwards to "like New 3DS", then there's really no sense in it.

It would be like the NEW 3DS from the start.  I only referred to the PS4Pro and X1X due to them being what is most fresh in people's minds.

 

And I would expect it 2020, 3 years into its life (around the time the rumored PS5 would come out).  The OG Switch is fine for now, getting most AA and A 3rd party games with good indie support alongside the unified library from Nintendo 1st party IPs from handheld AND console divisions.  I am talking in terms of keeping up with at least AA and A games when the PS5 comes out, otherwise it would start to feel like just another handheld rather than a console/portable hybrid due to the extreme gap.  This is a result of releasing the Switch mid-gen, but with a refresh like the NEW 3DS they could make it work.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

Barkley said:
BlackBeauty said:

2020 will be Switch 2. Using Xavier which will put on par with Xbox one X

Wow... just wow.

I think we need a memorial for your posts already:

"Switch will surpass XBO lifetime sales by November"

"When was the last time a cod game touch 15 million? Lol"

"Zelda BOTW will sell 17 - 20 million."

"Smash will be the best selling game this year."

"The PS4 is down YOY. Time for 5. "

"Splatoon will be a 15 million + LTD seller WW Can’t say that about MHW. It’s already in the discount bin"

 

It's an impressive resume, I look forward to you expanding it.

Please do and I will clock and book later on. I remember arguing with fan boys that odyssey won’t even touch Battlefront numbers. Lmao now where they at. Odyssey destroyed that game.

All of my statements are based on educated guesses.

 

- 8gb switch model with a brand new chip  already leaked through 5.0 firmware update. Nintendo is already preping a revision.

- X1 was used in self driving cars before being commercially available to use in tablets in 2016 and then switch in 2017.

- Its true successor tegra Xavier (Xbox one X equivalent in raw power) will be out this year. 

- Iwata already stated that the switch is adopting iOS ecosystem way before his death.

- Don’t be surprise that switch will get upgraded YEARLY like smartphones.



BlackBeauty said:

- Its true successor tegra Xavier (Xbox one X equivalent in raw power) will be out this year. 

Tegra Xavier chip has a 1.3TF GPU.... the XBO X GPU is 6TF.....

No a Switch 2 comparable to the XBO X will not launch in 2020. lmao



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Barkley said:
BlackBeauty said:

- Its true successor tegra Xavier (Xbox one X equivalent in raw power) will be out this year. 

Tegra Xavier chip has a 1.3TF GPU.... the XBO X GPU is 6TF.....

No a Switch 2 comparable to the XBO X will not launch in 2020. lmao

That’s not how TF works but go off. Xavier is leaps and bounds more advanced than anything inside the XBX. The Xbox is still using pretty ancient tech.

Nvidia and Nintendo signed a what 10 year plan for switch? And during the recent investor meeting for Nvidia, they were talking about their relationship with Nintendo. So we should expect custom made high performance chips based on Xavier. That’s not a reach.



BlackBeauty said:
Barkley said:

Tegra Xavier chip has a 1.3TF GPU.... the XBO X GPU is 6TF.....

No a Switch 2 comparable to the XBO X will not launch in 2020. lmao

That’s not how TF works but go off. Xavier is leaps and bounds more advanced than anything inside the XBX. The Xbox is still using pretty ancient tech.

Nvidia and Nintendo signed a what 10 year plan for switch? And during the recent investor meeting for Nvidia, they were talking about their relationship with Nintendo. So we should expect custom made high performance chips based on Xavier. That’s not a reach.

Sigh... here's digital foundry with an article about future Tegra Chips and the possible future for Switch.

"Nvidia has already announced its latest, cutting-edge Tegra processor - codenamed Xavier... Quite how this would map to a Nintendo console isn't so apparent - conceivably we'd be looking at PS4 levels of performance, or something in that ballpark."

"The size of the chip would make it more difficult to integrate into a Switch-type hybrid design and the processor would obviously be a lot more expensive too. A few years down the line, when chip manufacturing costs have come down, perhaps Xavier could work within a tablet-style device?"

So sure you could get one, not questioning the possibility of that. I'm laughing at your XBO X comparison.

More advanced does not equal more powerful.



Well, Nintendo has subtly commented on an upcoming new version of Nintendo Switch that will be purchased by traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers.

http://time.com/4661055/nintendo-switch-interview/?iid=sr-link8

Takahashi said:
…“It is Nintendo Switch, so maybe we’ll switch it up!” jokes Takahashi, responding to a question about whether Switch’s life cycle will resemble more the company’s TV consoles (completely new ideas at five-year-plus intervals) or its handhelds (subtler changes every few years). “Certainly, we’ve designed Nintendo Switch in a way that it can be used by consumers in the way that best suits them. I think we may see that people who have bought a Nintendo home console in the past traditionally, they may treat Switch like a home console and buy it and use it for a long period of time.”


“Whereas people who have been traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers, they may buy Nintendo Switch and then for example, if a new version were to come out later, then maybe they would decide to upgrade to that…

This comment also indicates that the OG Nintendo Switch is their current hardware plan for targeting home console gamers, where as this hinted at remodel of Nintendo Switch focuses on targeting their traditional handheld gamer base.

The areas where that focus can be better served are by making the Nintendo Switch more pocketable, lower priced, with better battery life and/or not require active cooling. (i.e. Nintendo Switch Mini or Nintendo Switch SP)

That is certainly the direction that Nintendo seems to be focused on right now. Nintendo knows that the 3DS will fade as Nintendo Switch grows, and they need to fill that lower price entry point to expand the platform significantly.

People hoping for some powered up SKU that has a bunch of games the original Nintendo Switch cannot run have not paid attention to Nintendo’s history with said revisions.

Anytime Nintendo has made such SKUs (i.e. DSi and New 3DS) they have allowed developers to make games for them that do not run on the original models, and the amount of total software that actually forgoes the existing user base has been very very very few titles. It just does not make sense for the financial side of things for developers to cater to a less than half portion of the install base, rather than the whole install base.

Will Nintendo make Nintendo Switch models with newer and better SOCs? Probably so, but the performance benefit will be marginal to non existent at best, as the focus will be to reduce cost of the total cost of materials (i.e. a 7nm SOC would allow them to put a smaller battery, reduce the entire chassis size, and remove the active cooling).

Nintendo is not focused on upgrading resolution of their consoles. They are still selling a 240p handheld console in 2018 at reduced costs with a very healthy profit margin on hardware and will continue that focus in the future.

In 2023, the Nintendo Switch will still have a 720p screen and Nintendo will be happy with the low cost and high profit margin and will have multiple SKUs.

Nintendo's focus is it leverage its software library to sell its hardware, and to reduce costs of hardware while addressing a wider audience. Focusing on CPU and GPU power and splitting their user base and pushing upmarket leading to a fragmented library is not where they will expand and Nintendo knows this.

Nintendo Switch will compete against the PS5 and Xbox 4 by going for reduced costs and novelty SKUs, while continuing to release new games for many many years.

Sure, a Nintendo Switch 2 (the Switch's true sucessor) with games not compatible with the OG Nintendo Switch will eventually release, but Nintendo is in no rush. Kimishima even mentioned they want to have 7-10 years between the Nintendo Switch's launch and the launch of its sucessor, so the intention and plans are currently facing that trajectory.

By the time PS5 and Xbox 4 come out, Nintendo Switch will have a large active userbase that will be differentiated enough from PS5 and Xbox 4 that it will not effect the Nintendo Switch's momentum.



CaptainExplosion said:
Miyamotoo said:
I expecting Switch Mini/Pocket next year and than stronger Switch in 2020.

Same, but I think a more effective way of keeping the Switch relevant for when the PS5 arrives is just to keep making great games, like Super Mari Odyssey or Breath of The Wild.

Offcourse, in 2020. we could easily have onother 3D Zelda and 3D Mario.



BlackBeauty said:

Nah much sooner than that.

It’s coming later this year or early next year.

The revision will be using a custom X2 chip.

2020 will be Switch 2. Using Xavier which will put on par with Xbox one X and 8K video rendering. One thing to keep in mind is that arm is catching to x86 very quickly. 

 

Apple is already will be ditching intel chips which will further innovate mobile chips.

Ugh, don't remind me of that idiocy.

Anyways, I agree that an X2 revision is due sooner rather than later, although I think it's likely to be a more 'under the hood' improvemet, with better battery life being the main benefit. Unless they add in more RAM as well while they're at it, then it might actually get significantly better docked performance as well.

Switch 2 might be 'forwards comatible' with the X2 revision as well, if that is the case.