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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predicting Switch sales

killeryoshis said:
JRPGfan said:

3DS probably has the strongest lineup in terms of software of any Nintendo console ever so far...
and its only at 71M dispite alot of owners collecting them and haveing (3-4 models of them).


Software (quality & quantity) isnt the only thing that counts.
Wii Had a few really great games (mario galaxy I+II, Xenoblade, ect) but its overall library was kinda weak.... yet it went on to sell more than 100m.

Its hard to say what makes a succesfull console, esp with nintendo.
Maybe the Motion Controll & games for it + handheld aspect + Labo are enough to repeat the Wii's success though.

3DS has one of the strongest libraries? Are you serious? If you were a JRPG gamer I can see why you would think that but the 3DS's library was very mono. Sure there are some good games on there but a huge chunk of them are RPGs. Most specifically JRPGs. If you compare the 3DS to the DS or Wii you see that variety is a bit more lacking.  On the DS it was common to see platformers, Puzzles, Mystery, Education, Shooter, RPGs and shoot'em ups on the same system. The Wii has fitness, platformers, Hack'n'Slash, shooters, Sports, puzzle and Party games. The 3DS has a good library but if you aren't into JRPGs than you really are going to have a hard time justifying buying one. You wouldn't even consider it if you didn't like Platformers or JRPGs. 

Also, 3DS cannot compete with the NES or SNES either. At best the 3DS is at 5th place. There is a reason why the 3DS sold the way it did. That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity. 

Ability to play 3DS + DS library is kinda nuts for JRPGs/RPGs.
Yes I think its games library is stronger than more or less any other nintendo console ever made.

I look back at the NES/SNES and yeah they where great "for their time", but compaired to the 3DS today, I think thats a better console, with a stronger library.
3DS is NOT a 5th place console for nintendo.... in terms of games library its gotta be higher than that.

 

"That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity. "

Etrian Odyssey 1,2,4,5
Dragon Quest VII+VIII
SMT IV + IV-apocalypse
SMT Devil Survivor 1+2
SMT Devil Summoner
SMT deep strange journey
Persona Q 1 & 2
Mario & Luigi 1,2,4,5
Kingdom Hearts 3D - Dream Drop Distance
Bravely Default + Secound

Stella Glow,  Alliance Alive, Weapon Shop de Omasse, Adventure Bar Story, Crimson Shroud, Fantasy Life, Ever Oasis, Attack of the Friday Monsters, Crimson Shroud, Code Name - S.T.E.A.M.,  Lord of Magna - Maiden Heaven, Mercenary Saga1+2+3, .... ect

 

Ontop of all :  FireEmblem/Pokemon/Phoenix Wright/Professor Layton/Zelda/Mario/Luigi/Yoshi/Yo Kai Watch/Story Of Seasons.... ect

^ and thats just the 3DS lineup.

Factor in the DS lineup as well.... this thing is stacked, like very few other Nintendo systems.

Yes this by far beats the Wii, N64, SNES, NES ect imo.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 06 April 2018

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killeryoshis said:
JRPGfan said:

3DS probably has the strongest lineup in terms of software of any Nintendo console ever so far...
and its only at 71M dispite alot of owners collecting them and haveing (3-4 models of them).


Software (quality & quantity) isnt the only thing that counts.
Wii Had a few really great games (mario galaxy I+II, Xenoblade, ect) but its overall library was kinda weak.... yet it went on to sell more than 100m.

Its hard to say what makes a succesfull console, esp with nintendo.
Maybe the Motion Controll & games for it + handheld aspect + Labo are enough to repeat the Wii's success though.

3DS has one of the strongest libraries? Are you serious? If you were a JRPG gamer I can see why you would think that but the 3DS's library was very mono. Sure there are some good games on there but a huge chunk of them are RPGs. Most specifically JRPGs. If you compare the 3DS to the DS or Wii you see that variety is a bit more lacking.  On the DS it was common to see platformers, Puzzles, Mystery, Education, Shooter, RPGs and shoot'em ups on the same system. The Wii has fitness, platformers, Hack'n'Slash, shooters, Sports, puzzle and Party games. The 3DS has a good library but if you aren't into JRPGs than you really are going to have a hard time justifying buying one. You wouldn't even consider it if you didn't like Platformers or JRPGs. 

Also, 3DS cannot compete with the NES or SNES either. At best the 3DS is at 5th place. There is a reason why the 3DS sold the way it did. That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity. 

Nah, I'm with him. Though I wouldn't put it at #1 overal of all systems, it's definitely been one of the best. My 3DS collection has surpassed my GameBoy collection as the biggest handheld collection I have. And I have zero JRPG's.



S.Peelman said:

There's one thing that'll make all the difference though. Switch seems to have more appeal to the core-gamer than Wii did, considering games like Skyrim, Fifa are practically million sellers

They are? I was looking at third party title performance just a few days ago and those didn't pop up in terms of titles that were approaching a million.



If you look at Nintendo's official figures, the average number of software titles per system (the tie-ratio), it is often not that high.

3DS sold 72m hardware units to 360m software units = 5 software titles per unit
Wiiu sold 13.5m hardware units to 102m software units = 7.5 software titles per unit.
DS sold 154m hardware units to 949m software units = 6 software titles per unit
The Wii did better, and sold 102m hardware units to 920m software units = 9 software titles per unit

These numbers include games that were bundled with the console at launch. Now considering there are many dedicated gamers who buy way more games than this, it also means there are others who buy even fewer than this on average.

So while a deep and diverse library is no doubt important and critical, the average person often does not buy that many games in their lifetime. So I think you can argue that while a deep and diverse library absolutely helps, it may be even more important to have several exceptional games that people feel they must have. The Wii had this with wii sports/wii sports resort, and others. The switch is on track to have several of these as well, with Zelda BOTW and Mario Odyssey.



Well, switch did not have price cut and also had supply issues.
I willing to bet switch would be on second group.
But I can see a peak year around 20M, not the wii and DS levels.
I think it will sell arround 100M



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Megiddo said:
S.Peelman said:

There's one thing that'll make all the difference though. Switch seems to have more appeal to the core-gamer than Wii did, considering games like Skyrim, Fifa are practically million sellers

They are? I was looking at third party title performance just a few days ago and those didn't pop up in terms of titles that were approaching a million.

We don't know how accurate VGC sales are, and they're only tracking physical sales anyway. They are probably much closer to the million than you think



brandon1546 said:

3DS sold 72m hardware units to 360m software units = 5 software titles per unit
Wiiu sold 13.5m hardware units to 102m software units = 7.5 software titles per unit.
DS sold 154m hardware units to 949m software units = 6 software titles per unit
The Wii did better, and sold 102m hardware units to 920m software units = 9 software titles per unit

Interesting stats, can't help but wonder how much of Wii's software sales are inflated by Wii Sports being bundled and all the Wii branded titles (Wii Sports Resort Wii Fit, Wii Play etc;). And how much DS sales were deflated by piracy



JRPGfan said:
killeryoshis said:

3DS has one of the strongest libraries? Are you serious? If you were a JRPG gamer I can see why you would think that but the 3DS's library was very mono. Sure there are some good games on there but a huge chunk of them are RPGs. Most specifically JRPGs. If you compare the 3DS to the DS or Wii you see that variety is a bit more lacking.  On the DS it was common to see platformers, Puzzles, Mystery, Education, Shooter, RPGs and shoot'em ups on the same system. The Wii has fitness, platformers, Hack'n'Slash, shooters, Sports, puzzle and Party games. The 3DS has a good library but if you aren't into JRPGs than you really are going to have a hard time justifying buying one. You wouldn't even consider it if you didn't like Platformers or JRPGs. 

Also, 3DS cannot compete with the NES or SNES either. At best the 3DS is at 5th place. There is a reason why the 3DS sold the way it did. That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity. 

Ability to play 3DS + DS library is kinda nuts for JRPGs/RPGs.
Yes I think its games library is stronger than more or less any other nintendo console ever made.

I look back at the NES/SNES and yeah they where great "for their time", but compaired to the 3DS today, I think thats a better console, with a stronger library.
3DS is NOT a 5th place console for nintendo.... in terms of games library its gotta be higher than that.

 

"That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity. "

Etrian Odyssey 1,2,4,5
Dragon Quest VII+VIII
SMT IV + IV-apocalypse
SMT Devil Survivor 1+2
SMT Devil Summoner
SMT deep strange journey
Persona Q 1 & 2
Mario & Luigi 1,2,4,5
Kingdom Hearts 3D - Dream Drop Distance
Bravely Default + Secound

Stella Glow,  Alliance Alive, Weapon Shop de Omasse, Adventure Bar Story, Crimson Shroud, Fantasy Life, Ever Oasis, Attack of the Friday Monsters, Crimson Shroud, Code Name - S.T.E.A.M.,  Lord of Magna - Maiden Heaven, Mercenary Saga1+2+3, .... ect

 

Ontop of all :  FireEmblem/Pokemon/Phoenix Wright/Professor Layton/Zelda/Mario/Luigi/Yoshi/Yo Kai Watch/Story Of Seasons.... ect

^ and thats just the 3DS lineup.

Factor in the DS lineup as well.... this thing is stacked, like very few other Nintendo systems.

Yes this by far beats the Wii, N64, SNES, NES ect imo.

I don’t think 3DS is even close to the Wii, to be honest. Some of the games on Wii included:

  • Super Mario Galaxy
  • Wii Sports
  • Legend of Zelda
  • Super Paper Mario
  • Metroid Prime
  • Fire Emblem
  • WarioWare
  • Forever Blue/Endless Ocean
  • Resident Evil 4
  • Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles
  • Call of Duty 3 and 4
  • Medal of Honour
  • Okami
  • Fifa
  • PES
  • Tiger Woods PGA
  • Madden NFL
  • SSX
  • Tony Hawk
  • Need for Speed
  • Far Cry
  • Bully
  • Splinter Cell
  • Prince of Persia
  • Driver
  • Guitar Hero
  • Rock Band
  • The Godfather
  • Scarface
  • Zack and Wiki
  • Geometry Wars
  • The Simpsons Game
  • Trauma Center
  • Elebits
  • Spyro the Dragon
  • No More Heroes
  • Red Steel
  • Harvest Moon (Story of Seasons)
And that’s just one year of releases.

Since we’re counting games a console has access to, the Wii had access to the Gamecube library and the most extensive back catalogue virtual console of any console existing. 
The real story is that Wii launched with what turned out to be the biggest killer app in videogame history, and capped off its first year with one of the most critically acclaimed games in history. In its lifetime the 3DS didn’t have any games of this caliber.


I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
JRPGfan said:

Ability to play 3DS + DS library is kinda nuts for JRPGs/RPGs.
Yes I think its games library is stronger than more or less any other nintendo console ever made.

I look back at the NES/SNES and yeah they where great "for their time", but compaired to the 3DS today, I think thats a better console, with a stronger library.
3DS is NOT a 5th place console for nintendo.... in terms of games library its gotta be higher than that.

 

"That's why the Switch will breeze right through the 3DS. It will have a library that is better in both variety, quality and quantity. "

Etrian Odyssey 1,2,4,5
Dragon Quest VII+VIII
SMT IV + IV-apocalypse
SMT Devil Survivor 1+2
SMT Devil Summoner
SMT deep strange journey
Persona Q 1 & 2
Mario & Luigi 1,2,4,5
Kingdom Hearts 3D - Dream Drop Distance
Bravely Default + Secound

Stella Glow,  Alliance Alive, Weapon Shop de Omasse, Adventure Bar Story, Crimson Shroud, Fantasy Life, Ever Oasis, Attack of the Friday Monsters, Crimson Shroud, Code Name - S.T.E.A.M.,  Lord of Magna - Maiden Heaven, Mercenary Saga1+2+3, .... ect

 

Ontop of all :  FireEmblem/Pokemon/Phoenix Wright/Professor Layton/Zelda/Mario/Luigi/Yoshi/Yo Kai Watch/Story Of Seasons.... ect

^ and thats just the 3DS lineup.

Factor in the DS lineup as well.... this thing is stacked, like very few other Nintendo systems.

Yes this by far beats the Wii, N64, SNES, NES ect imo.

I don’t think 3DS is even close to the Wii, to be honest. Some of the games on Wii included:

 

  • Super Mario Galaxy  (I give you this one)
  • Wii Sports
  • Legend of Zelda  (3ds has plenty of)
  • Super Paper Mario  (this was a horrible paper mario game)
  • Metroid Prime
  • Fire Emblem (3ds has plenty of, and better version that the wii had)
  • WarioWare  (really?)
  • Forever Blue/Endless Ocean
  • Resident Evil 4  (3ds has plenty of)
  • Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles (3ds has plenty of)
  • Call of Duty 3 and 4 
  • Medal of Honour
  • Okami
  • Fifa  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • PES  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Tiger Woods PGA (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Madden NFL  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • SSX (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Tony Hawk (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Need for Speed
  • Far Cry
  • Bully
  • Splinter Cell
  • Prince of Persia
  • Driver
  • Guitar Hero
  • Rock Band
  • The Godfather
  • Scarface
  • Zack and Wiki
  • Geometry Wars (indies?)
  • The Simpsons Game
  • Trauma Center
  • Elebits
  • Spyro the Dragon
  • No More Heroes
  • Red Steel
  • Harvest Moon (Story of Seasons) (3ds has plenty of)
And that’s just one year of releases.

Since we’re counting games a console has access to, the Wii had access to the Gamecube library and the most extensive back catalogue virtual console of any console existing. 
The real story is that Wii launched with what turned out to be the biggest killer app in videogame history, and capped off its first year with one of the most critically acclaimed games in history. In its lifetime the 3DS didn’t have any games of this caliber.

 

 

But how many "meaty" proper full length high quality RPGs did the wii have? man it was slim pickings.
3DS owns the Wii+Gamecube when it comes to RPGs to a degree, I think 3DS is a better game library.

I dont "feel" like the wii had that many standout titles tbh.
You got a Wii, the must haves where like:

Xenoblade Chronicles (which 3ds also has)
the Mario Galaxy (I&II) games
Resident Evil 4
DKC-Returns
Skyward Sword

5 big "must have"s imo, but the 3DS has tons of games at that level.



JRPGfan said:
Jumpin said:

I don’t think 3DS is even close to the Wii, to be honest. Some of the games on Wii included:

 

  • Super Mario Galaxy  (I give you this one)
  • Wii Sports Wii Sports was a big system seller,especially early on and with casuals
  • Legend of Zelda  (3ds has plenty of) But none of the caliber of Twilight Princess, especially not at launch. Otherwise, I would have agreed with you.
  • Super Paper Mario  (this was a horrible paper mario game) Horrible? Seriously? I found it pretty great, if different from the 2 first entries. It sold well and was still pretty well recieved.
  • Metroid Prime
  • Fire Emblem (3ds has plenty of, and better version that the wii had) better selling, but everything else was better on the GC/Wii FE games, sadly. But I give you this one because FE Tellius flopped.
  • WarioWare  (really?) Yes really, it did sell well and push consoles at it's release
  • Forever Blue/Endless Ocean
  • Resident Evil 4  (3ds has plenty of) mainline entries? Certainly not!
  • Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles (3ds has plenty of)
  • Call of Duty 3 and 4 
  • Medal of Honour
  • Okami
  • Fifa  (sports games, who cares really?) All of europe does for this one and the next. A home console needs those sports games in general to sell any consoles, even the Wii U probably would have sold about twice as many console if it just had those games
  • PES  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Tiger Woods PGA (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Madden NFL  (sports games, who cares really?)
  • SSX (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Tony Hawk (sports games, who cares really?)
  • Need for Speed
  • Far Cry Worst version by far, barely playable. So, no
  • Bully
  • Splinter Cell
  • Prince of Persia
  • Driver That series was basically dead by then
  • Guitar Hero
  • Rock Band
  • The Godfather
  • Scarface
  • Zack and Wiki Acclaimed flop, didn't sell well or push consoles
  • Geometry Wars (indies?) Where a novelty back then and sold well, but probably didn't push consoles
  • The Simpsons Game
  • Trauma Center
  • Elebits
  • Spyro the Dragon
  • No More Heroes
  • Red Steel
  • Harvest Moon (Story of Seasons) (3ds has plenty of)
And that’s just one year of releases.

Since we’re counting games a console has access to, the Wii had access to the Gamecube library and the most extensive back catalogue virtual console of any console existing. 
The real story is that Wii launched with what turned out to be the biggest killer app in videogame history, and capped off its first year with one of the most critically acclaimed games in history. In its lifetime the 3DS didn’t have any games of this caliber.

 

 

But how many "meaty" proper full length high quality RPGs did the wii have? man it was slim pickings.
3DS owns the Wii+Gamecube when it comes to RPGs to a degree, I think 3DS is a better game library.

I dont "feel" like the wii had that many standout titles tbh.
You got a Wii, the must haves where like:

Xenoblade Chronicles (which 3ds also has)
the Mario Galaxy (I&II) games
Resident Evil 4
DKC-Returns
Skyward Sword

5 big "must have"s imo, but the 3DS has tons of games at that level.

Pointed out some things in the previous comment, because the Wii lineup was better than you think

Yes, Wii lacked many RPGs. It's also one of the main reasons why the 3DS does so well in Japan compared to the Wii - all those JRPG are doing wonders for that market, but much less elsewhere, hence why the wii still outsells the 3DS (among many other reasons)